Statistical Rankings

SS05...thanks again for putting this together.
What is the highest strength of schedule a team can achieve?

With most of the top 05 teams playing in EAL, they're all likely going to stay pretty high. Is it reasonable to think that it will be increasingly more difficult for those teams not playing in EAL (Gold) to crack into the top 10? May put more emphasis on tourney performance, right?

ShelleyFRN: The score drop-down list goes up to 20 now (up from 15).

Distributor: As for the highest strength of schedule for a team question, I supposed if a team only played the #1 team over-and-over (never playing anyone else) that would be the highest strength of schedule you could achieve. If you are talking about a specific number itself, that is not known because the strength of schedule is dynamic and based on other games and goal differentials. In theory, the actual number itself for strength of schedule itself is almost meaningless. The value of the strength of schedule is the relativity related to other teams strength of schedule. So strength of schedule 995 and 993 (difference of 2)....is basically the same as strength of schedule 526 and 524 (difference of 2).

As for cracking the top 10 and the EAL teams continually playing each other so their strength of schedule stays relatively high (think I see where you are going with this), the non-EAL team can easily get into the top 10 by increasing their goal differential. So if a team plays a weaker team you should score more that will propel you higher in the ratings....if you play a harder team you don't score as much. Over time, the numbers stabilize to fairly accurate reflection of what is happening with the teams. You are correct in that when the tournaments happen, that is where the rankings get better. The formula can start using more data points for teams playing across different leagues. If we only had league info and no tournament games, the numbers would be poor because couldn't compare teams very easily.


BTW will do updates to calculations after the games this weekend.

Updated the 05 rating calculations using games through 4/22. Missing a few games from this weekend including the SDL games. If/when they come in I will incorporate into the numbers.

Thank you for your hard work in putting this together.

Are you including DIAL league?

Solar Red 05 5
Liverpool 05 3

New calculations performed. See first post from this thread for the URL link.

Yes, DIAL games are included. Most SDL games from the last 2 weeks are missing. Couple of missing games from primetime.

This may be the last statistical update for the 2011-12 year. I noticed there are only small changes in the rankings (e.g. two teams swap a spots) when new games are added. Hitting diminishing returns.

The end of year tournaments will show you where you really stack up within the 05 group. If you think the statistical rankings numbers are not a good reflection of your team (yes, this is a flawed statistical system)....show your stuff in these May tournaments. Nothing better than an underdog team beating the favorite.


BTW: These rankings are just a barometer for when teams play each other or they could be helpful in defining tournament brackets to get competitive games. These girls are 7. If they have a sleepover it impacts their game performance. They can tell you the team cheer but not the score of the game.

OK for fun I took the scores from this weekend and compared them to SoccerStat05's projections based on his system...
Soccer.Stat.05 pts per latest results:
DT Moreno 7.789
LP Hyypia 9.527
GSSC Thunder 3.934
Saints Athletic -0.136

Solar Red 05 8.732
Sting West 7.081
FWFC 05G White 1.523
DT Torres 1.570

The Match-ups:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 3-4 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 5)
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Saints Athletic -0.136 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 10 Goals (Actual - LP Won by 11)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs DT Moreno 7.789 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 8 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 10)
GSSC Thunder 3.934 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 5-6 goals (Actual - LP Won by 10)
DT Moreno 7.789 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - HYYPIA by 2-3 Goals (Actual - LP won by 7)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - GSSC Thunder by 4 goals (Actual - Tie)

Solar Red 05 8.732 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED SOLAR RED by 7 goals (Actual - Solar won by 4)
Sting West 7.081 vs FWFC 05G White 1.523 - PROJECTED STING WEST 5-6 Goals (Actual - Sting won by 5)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED Solar Red 7 Goals (Actual - Solar won by 10)
DT Torres 1.570 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Sting West 5-6 goals (Actual - Sting won by 7)
Solar Red 05 8.732 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Solar Red 1-2 goals (Actual - Solar won by 3 goals)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED TIE (Actual DT Torres won by 4)

CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET
POOL A 1st Place - LP Hyypia 9.527 vs POOL B 2nd Place - Sting West 7.081 Projected SEMI-WINNER: HYYPIA by 2-3 goals (Actual Hyypia by 1 goal)

POOL B 1st Place - Solar Red 05 8.732 vs POOL A 2nd Place - DT Moreno 7.789 Projected SEMI-WINNER: SOLAR RED by 1 goal (Actual SOLAR by 2 goals)

CHAMPIONSHIP:
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED: HYYPIA by 1 (Actual Hyypia by 3)
3rd Place Game:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED: DT MORENO by 1 (Actual Sting West by 1 (PK))

So SoccerStat05 system got all but one game, a 3rd place final where it went to PKs

Interesting and good job SS05

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:OK for fun I took the scores from this weekend and compared them to SoccerStat05's projections based on his system...
Soccer.Stat.05 pts per latest results:
DT Moreno 7.789
LP Hyypia 9.527
GSSC Thunder 3.934
Saints Athletic -0.136

Solar Red 05 8.732
Sting West 7.081
FWFC 05G White 1.523
DT Torres 1.570

The Match-ups:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 3-4 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 5)
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Saints Athletic -0.136 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 10 Goals (Actual - LP Won by 11)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs DT Moreno 7.789 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 8 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 10)
GSSC Thunder 3.934 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 5-6 goals (Actual - LP Won by 10)
DT Moreno 7.789 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - HYYPIA by 2-3 Goals (Actual - LP won by 7)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - GSSC Thunder by 4 goals (Actual - Tie)

Solar Red 05 8.732 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED SOLAR RED by 7 goals (Actual - Solar won by 4)
Sting West 7.081 vs FWFC 05G White 1.523 - PROJECTED STING WEST 5-6 Goals (Actual - Sting won by 5)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED Solar Red 7 Goals (Actual - Solar won by 10)
DT Torres 1.570 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Sting West 5-6 goals (Actual - Sting won by 7)
Solar Red 05 8.732 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Solar Red 1-2 goals (Actual - Solar won by 3 goals)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED TIE (Actual DT Torres won by 4)

CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET
POOL A 1st Place - LP Hyypia 9.527 vs POOL B 2nd Place - Sting West 7.081 Projected SEMI-WINNER: HYYPIA by 2-3 goals (Actual Hyypia by 1 goal)

POOL B 1st Place - Solar Red 05 8.732 vs POOL A 2nd Place - DT Moreno 7.789 Projected SEMI-WINNER: SOLAR RED by 1 goal (Actual SOLAR by 2 goals)

CHAMPIONSHIP:
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED: HYYPIA by 1 (Actual Hyypia by 3)
3rd Place Game:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED: DT MORENO by 1 (Actual Sting West by 1 (PK))

So SoccerStat05 system got all but one game, a 3rd place final where it went to PKs

Interesting and good job SS05

Very cool!

That is cool. Tournaments are sometimes wonky as the number of variables that come into play increases, and the unexpected can certainly happen--see LHD1 champions not making it into the playoff round of State Cup this weekend. It'll be interesting to see if these predictors hold form over the next couple of weekends.

There were 24 games in the 'newly submitted' tab so I added those and did a new calculation. Some games were from the PT Summer Tournament last weekend. I was interested in getting those cross league games in for the strength of schedule calculations.

In general there was not much movement in the overall order of teams after the new calculations. Maybe a swap here and there. I saw a post where someone did the projected vs actual results for the tournament, and I was shocked to see how relatively accurate the statistical rankings were.

6 of the top 10 teams play in that Legend tournament gold bracket. Don't think the statistics will hold up as well for this one. Bunch of these games can go either way depending on who shows up/heat/sleepovers/etc. Should be some exciting matches.

For the May 18-20th Legends Tourney here is the outcome as compared to the Soccer Stats 05 Rating System.

So Soccer Stats System (difference between Ratings) predicted the outcome in 10 of the 12 games, and got the point spread within 1 goal in 4 of those 10 games.

DALLAS KICKS SC 05 11.023
Liverpool FC America 05 Girls HYYPIA 10.387
AZTECS FC LADY AZTECS FC 10.128
DALLAS TEXANS ACADEMY 05G Moreno 7.917
DALLAS COSMOS 05 BLACK 6.754
Liverpool 05 Girls Heighway 5.092


Friday, May 18, 2012
AZTECS FC LADY AZTECS FC 2 (Rating: 10.128)__vs__DALLAS TEXANS ACADEMY 05G MORENO 0 (Rating: 7.917) (projected LA by 2, Actual LA by 2)
DALLAS KICKS SC 05 8 (Rating: 11.023)________vs__Liverpool 05 Girls Heighway 0 (Rating: 5.092) (Projected DK by 6, Actualy DK by 8 )

Saturday, May 19, 2012
AZTECS FC LADY AZTECS FC 2 (Rating: 10.128)__vs__Liverpool 05 Girls Heighway 0 (Rating: 5.092) (projected LA by 5, Actual LA by 2)
Liverpool 05 Girls Heighway 1 (Rating: 5.092)_vs_LIVERPOOL FC AMERICA 05 GILRS HYYPIA 7 (Rating: 10.387) (Projected Hyypia by 5, Actual Hyypia by 6)
DALLAS KICKS SC 05 0 (Rating: 11.023)________vs__AZTECS FC LADY AZTECS FC 0 (Rating: 10.128) (Projected Tie, Actual Tie)

LIVERPOOL 05 GILRS HYYPIA 6 (Rating: 10.387)_vs__DALLAS COSMOS 05 BLACK 1 (Rating: 6.754) (Projected Hyypia by 3, Actual Hyypia by 5)
DALLAS COSMOS 05 BLACK 0 (Rating: 6.754)_____vs__DALLAS KICKS SC 05 7 (Rating: 11.023) (Projected DK by 4, Actualy DK by 7)
LIVERPOOL 05 GILRS HYYPIA 3 (Rating: 10.387)_vs__DALLAS TEXANS ACADEMY 05G MORENO 0 (Rating: 7.917) (Projected Hyypia by 2, Actual Hyypia by 3)
DALLAS TEXANS 05G MORENO 5 (Rating: 7.917)___vs__ DALLAS COSMOS 05 BLACK 0 (Rating: 6.754) (Projected DTM by 1, Actual DTM by 5)

Sunday, May 20, 2012 (CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET)
SEMI - DALLAS KICKS SC 05 1 (Rating: 11.023)________vs__DALLAS TEXANS 05G MORENO 0 (Rating: 7.917) (Projected DK by 3, Actualy DK by 1 in PKs)
SEMI - AZTECS FC LADY AZTECS FC 2 (Rating: 10.128)__vs__LIVERPOOL FC AMERICA 05 GILRS HYYPIA 4 (Rating: 10.387) (Projected Tie, Actual Hyypia by 2)
Finals - DALLAS KICKS SC 05 0 (Rating: 11.023)________vs__LIVERPOOL FC AMERICA 05 GILRS HYYPIA 2 (Rating: 10.387) (Projected Tie, Actual Hyypia by 2)

Noticed Zap 05 needs to be added
Also TFC 05 is now American Eagles 05

Added games that were submitted for the end of season tournaments. Ran new calculations. Again, comparing the old rankings to the new rankings, there is little movement now. Couple of teams switched spots. We tracked 332 games across 48 teams. For next year (2012-13), we will wipe the slate clean and start with zero games and start building up again.

you can probably remove stryke force from the list - it was a rec team experiment that ran its course...they are safely back in the nurturing bosom of the BAYFA rec system.

futbolita_fan wrote:you can probably remove stryke force from the list - it was a rec team experiment that ran its course...they are safely back in the nurturing bosom of the BAYFA rec system.

You said Bosom.

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

That would be fun. Wasn't there a challenge by soccer.stats.05 and BWG about who's ranking system was better? I believe it was in another age group, but not sure what ever came out of it.

I like the FBR as it seems to keep the most recent games, instead of all of the games. However, both are good baselines for banter...

Distributor wrote:

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

That would be fun. Wasn't there a challenge by soccer.stats.05 and BWG about who's ranking system was better? I believe it was in another age group, but not sure what ever came out of it.

I like the FBR as it seems to keep the most recent games, instead of all of the games. However, both are good baselines for banter...

Agree. Btw. I heard the 05 Tulsa team is coming to north Texas in November or one of the tourneys.

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

That would be fun. Wasn't there a challenge by soccer.stats.05 and BWG about who's ranking system was better? I believe it was in another age group, but not sure what ever came out of it.

I like the FBR as it seems to keep the most recent games, instead of all of the games. However, both are good baselines for banter...

Agree. Btw. I heard the 05 Tulsa team is coming to north Texas in November or one of the tourneys.

Bring it...

That would actually be pretty cool! Gets boring playing the same teams all the time. There was one team from Tulsa that came down for a 3v3 tourney (Soccer Divas maybe?)...they said there's not many '05 teams to play against, so they play up all the time. Would be fun. I wonder if their parents are as crazy as ours?

Distributor wrote:

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

That would be fun. Wasn't there a challenge by soccer.stats.05 and BWG about who's ranking system was better? I believe it was in another age group, but not sure what ever came out of it.

I like the FBR as it seems to keep the most recent games, instead of all of the games. However, both are good baselines for banter...

Agree. Btw. I heard the 05 Tulsa team is coming to north Texas in November or one of the tourneys.

Bring it...

That would actually be pretty cool! Gets boring playing the same teams all the time. There was one team from Tulsa that came down for a 3v3 tourney (Soccer Divas maybe?)...they said there's not many '05 teams to play against, so they play up all the time. Would be fun. I wonder if their parents are as crazy as ours?

I believe they play for this Tulsa team that is coming down

Side note, why does PT offer 7v7 and 9v9, why not just one format?

Distributor wrote:

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:

Distributor wrote:

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

Is soccerstats05 still around?
Any planned updates?
With so many teams in CFBAL, should make the game reports a little easier!

Heard BWGophers is considering doing a FBR for 05s...

That would be fun. Wasn't there a challenge by soccer.stats.05 and BWG about who's ranking system was better? I believe it was in another age group, but not sure what ever came out of it.

I like the FBR as it seems to keep the most recent games, instead of all of the games. However, both are good baselines for banter...

Don't know much about FBR... but the soccerstats05 results were crazy accurate as far as using it to predict winners based on past results... Frisco did an analysis several weeks in a row and the predictions were right way more than they were wrong... even down to doing a good job of predicting the actual score... so, at least for me, if you're out there soccerstats05... keep it coming! Of course, would love to see BWGophers do FBR as well. I can only imagine how much time that takes so much thanks to him for all he does to feed us crazy parents!