'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 05-07-13

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

Does 04Rase and 03Rase ever scrimmage?

We have played them in some tournament and it has always been close. I think we should scrimmage them more. I think our style of play is a little better and they are without a doubt more athletic than us. I think more scrimmages would help both teams. Allow us to play under extreme pressure and allow them to focus on possesion and ballmovement and not have worry about the athletic side.

People's Champ had a small detour...

Oh to all you scotties out there.

Do you ever get tired of sitting around on the weekend as a family bored?
Tired of hunting for teams to "guess" play on?
Feel like "you know I could do better"?
You can always come back home.
Remember YNWA (unless your skills aren't very good)


LW does not approve this message

go99 wrote:after this past weekend looks like the "peoples champ" will have to put in a little more work handling the rest of the 04's. Couldn't handle the tactical genious of king kenni and LFS who were thrashed by Dalglish. I would say those top 3 are there together does spirit want to join the party? And still holding my seat on the Scott bandwagon but I S#!T YOU NOT. I WILL GET OFF AT THE NEXT STOP IF HE DOESNT PLAY HIS TEAM IN AN ACTUAL F@#KING TOURNAMENT

I personally think that Piper will take Scott's seat at the "big kids " table. Something's amiss over at Scott. I can't put my finger on it yet, but I think some of the natives are becoming restless.

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

I think a season of kicking the big boys butts will have the people champ rolling

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

They don't.

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

Baskets, goals, points, buckets, master Bates, masturbates, jerking off.....gtfoh.

Soccer Po Boy wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

They don't.

Wasn't a request of mine....besides, this is fun and discrete right poboy?

go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

The same way you quoted my post genius.

Soccer Po Boy wrote:

go99 wrote:after this past weekend looks like the "peoples champ" will have to put in a little more work handling the rest of the 04's. Couldn't handle the tactical genious of king kenni and LFS who were thrashed by Dalglish. I would say those top 3 are there together does spirit want to join the party? And still holding my seat on the Scott bandwagon but I S#!T YOU NOT. I WILL GET OFF AT THE NEXT STOP IF HE DOESNT PLAY HIS TEAM IN AN ACTUAL F@#KING TOURNAMENT

I personally think that Piper will take Scott's seat at the "big kids " table. Something's amiss over at Scott. I can't put my finger on it yet, but I think some of the natives are becoming restless.

They are restless because they are sitting at home all the time wondering what it would be like to play in a real tournament as team. Hmmm pipes at the big kids table? Speaking of sting, do they still get to play games in their PJ's? Maybe a provisional spot like stting at the big kid table but having to sit in a little kid chair

go99 wrote:

Soccer Po Boy wrote:

go99 wrote:after this past weekend looks like the "peoples champ" will have to put in a little more work handling the rest of the 04's. Couldn't handle the tactical genious of king kenni and LFS who were thrashed by Dalglish. I would say those top 3 are there together does spirit want to join the party? And still holding my seat on the Scott bandwagon but I S#!T YOU NOT. I WILL GET OFF AT THE NEXT STOP IF HE DOESNT PLAY HIS TEAM IN AN ACTUAL F@#KING TOURNAMENT

I personally think that Piper will take Scott's seat at the "big kids " table. Something's amiss over at Scott. I can't put my finger on it yet, but I think some of the natives are becoming restless.

They are restless because they are sitting at home all the time wondering what it would be like to play in a real tournament as team. Hmmm pipes at the big kids table? Speaking of sting, do they still get to play games in their PJ's? Maybe a provisional spot like stting at the big kid table but having to sit in a little kid chair

I think Piper would probably take that. I'm sure they would be happy with any seat. Unlike some others who take that seat for granted. As far as Spirit, they will always have a seat as long as "she is there". But if she leaves.......oh my!

db10 wrote:Hypothetical using the ranking formula what would happen if:

1. a new team formed and joined SDL P but when 1-8?

2. a new team formed joined SDL 1 or 2 and went .500, but ended up beating some top clubs in tournaments along the way?

Where would the team get ranked in each scenario?
Without history would this new team get more credit for the SOS or more credit for beating the top clubs even though it could be seen as a "one off"

Not an arguement, or critique, just simply wondering how the formula would handle these.

Hypothetically, I have no way of predicting it. Too many variables in play that you failed to mention. Did the 1-8 team in SDL P lose all of it's games by 1-2 goals, or where they blown out by 5-10 goals in all of their games? What teams did the .500 SDL 1/2 team play, what their opponents' and opponents opponents' records? What was the margin of victory in those games? What "top clubs" did they beat in tournaments?

Here is what I can say...

The formula and methodology are not a secret, and are published in detail at http://www.ntxsoccer.net/rankings.aspx.

The software, formula, and methodology have been unchanged since Feb. 2011.

For the '01's and the '02's, the final FBR compiled the week prior to the LHGCL QT has been 78% accurate at predicting U11 week 1 qualifiers, 88% accurate at predicting which 20 teams qualify for D1 at U11, and 90% accurate at predicting the 30 total teams qualify for LH at U11.

Around this time last year, I did a "control test" on the FBR formula. Using the '01 LHGCL, PPL, and APL league results, I created an FBR Ranking for each league/division, using only the results of league games. Since all of these leagues play a perfectly balanced schedule within a division, where each team plays each other team an equal amount of times, if FBR is calculating SoS correctly, it should essentially fall out of the equation for these cases. In every case (LHGCL D1 Supergroup, LHGCL D3, PPL D1, PPL D2, APL D1, APL D2) the FBR "Ranking" matched the final league standings (including tie-breakers based on goal differential).

I then merged all of the '01 leagues/divisions into a single database and applied the "ranking tier" criteria that I use for the academy rankings (again, using only league results, no tournaments). The result was that I got a small level of inter-mixing between leagues/divisions. For example, the top LHGCL D3 team came in at #18 in the overall ranking, ahead of 2 LHGCL D1 teams. The bottom D1 team came in at #24. Given the promotion/relegation concept that LHGCL uses, this makes perfect sense. Similar intermixing occurred between the top PPL/APL teams and the bottom LHGCL D3 teams.

Now, compared to U11 select, where teams "qualify" instead of sign-up/get assigned, leagues play fully balanced schedules, and roster movement is far more restricted... NTX academy is the Wild Wild West. Roster movement is unrestricted, guest playing is rampant in both leagues and tournaments, league/division placement is far more arbitrary and subjective, league schedules are often unbalanced, teams play in multiple leagues and some teams play as many as 3x as many games as others, etc. All of these factors add challenge, and noise to compiling something that makes sense. TRD is correct in that the farther away an age group is from select, the more "noisy" it is.

With that said, if a system doesn't work properly for the "control case", it has no hope of working for the case with higher variables. FBR works for the "control case". FBR also works pretty well for predicting QT results, including the relative ranking of teams that have drastically different W-L records leading up to QT, because they played drastically different levels of competition leading up to QT. Then, once those teams have to play equal competition in QT, and subsequently in LHGCL U11, you find that they end up in the LHGCL standings, pretty darn close to where FBR predicted that they should be.

Is FBR perfect? Heck no. Is it pretty good? Yup.

Do I agree with TRD that the teams currently in the top 20 with poor W-L records are "zits"? Nope. Can I prove that I'm right and he's wrong? Not unless we get all of those teams together and play a round-robin, but I'm pretty sure that's going to have to wait until Lake Highlands at U11.

So, it is what it is.

As I have always said in regards to FBR:

Love it? GREAT! Enjoy it!
Hate it? GREAT! Ignore it!

BW....I sure hope you keep all of these "repeat" explanations on speed dial and you can just quickly cut & paste....seriously time is valuable! Nuts!

But what about my question? You didn't answer it and now I feel left out

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

The same way you quoted my post genius.

Pretty amazing feat, being the least knowledgable poster on this forum! Congratulations and enjoy yourself at LFS!

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

The same way you quoted my post genius.

Pretty amazing feat, being the least knowledgable poster on this forum! Congratulations and enjoy yourself at LFS!

So....thanks for the acknowlegement. Again. Genius.

Did you think I was going to argue..." I bet I know more about 04 girls soccer than you!!" ?

And let me clarify my opinions about Piper. I am assuming they will merge with Chacon. They just don't have the numbers right now to compete in 11v11. And I'll also say with said merger, they will deserve a big chair, not the provisional kids one.

Thanks BW. Rankings look pretty accurate for the top 20 and outside of the top 10 who cares. The only caution I have are for those teams that use a lot of guest players. This skews the rankings, but there is no way to control this. Once the teams r locked and player contracts r signed then this anomaly will take care of itself. We will have to wait until qualifying.

Po Boy, you opening a can of worms when you mention merger.. Thats was a hot topic and a few on here were pissed.. I guess they felt their DD's was going to be left out..

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

The same way you quoted my post genius.

Pretty amazing feat, being the least knowledgable poster on this forum! Congratulations and enjoy yourself at LFS!

So....thanks for the acknowlegement. Again. Genius.

Did you think I was going to argue..." I bet I know more about 04 girls soccer than you!!" ?

Don't you usually?

PDub wrote:Po Boy, you opening a can of worms when you mention merger.. Thats was a hot topic and a few on here were pissed.. I guess they felt their DD's was going to be left out..

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me I'm wrong. Whattheheck?

Nice the scoop just broke here. Sting piper merges with chacon. New super power rightfully takes the name sting forward

hmm.. Went back and look at top 20. From 6 down the water looks murky. I don't see much of of anyone merging. I say Piper Pride gets more girls before he merges.

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:

Master Bates wrote:

kixR4Adults2 wrote:People's Champ had a small detour...

You refer to goals as "points"! How can anyone take notice of your opinion?

The same way you quoted my post genius.

Pretty amazing feat, being the least knowledgable poster on this forum! Congratulations and enjoy yourself at LFS!

I do find the whole Rosales/ Solar Kenn (LFS) thing interesting. The thing I can't figure out is, why would Kenn need Rosales? From what I saw this weekend, Kenn has most of his girls already. Seriously, between RASE and Kenn you could have one heck of a DTN reunion. You might not know this SweetKix, but I can remember when DTN was a good team without "guess" players.