Girls 5A HS Playoff Parity

ninja1 wrote:Likewise for 4-5A
Southlake over Lamar 5-0
Keller over Weatherford 6-0
Timber Creek over Arlington 2-0
Central over Martin 3-1

There has been a well-documented demographic shift from Arlington into northern Tarrant county over the last couple of decades. It's interesting how girl's soccer success conforms to those changes, while in boy's soccer, it ain't necessarily so. I believe the #4 seed from 3-5A took out the #1 seed from 4-5A last night as a case in point.

Shotshagger wrote:

ninja1 wrote:Likewise for 4-5A
Southlake over Lamar 5-0
Keller over Weatherford 6-0
Timber Creek over Arlington 2-0
Central over Martin 3-1

There has been a well-documented demographic shift from Arlington into northern Tarrant county over the last couple of decades. It's interesting how girl's soccer success conforms to those changes, while in boy's soccer, it ain't necessarily so. I believe the #4 seed from 3-5A took out the #1 seed from 4-5A last night as a case in point.

The #1 seed from 4-5A is Southlake so you do have your districts wrong but the point you are making is right on. 4-5A (Northern Tarrant County) did beat all of the Arlington district teams. The #4 seed from 4-5A (Keller Central) beat the #1 seed from the Arlington district (Martin). Don't know their district #.

The UIL website says (R3) Arlington High (from 3-5A) beat (T4) SL Carroll 3-2.  Not sure what the R/T stuff means, but as you say, the point remains the same, and I'm not sure why.  Maybe soccer is more of a primary aspirational sport among the N Tarrant population for girls; and south of there, that tends to be more true for boys.

Wait a sec--I'm talking about the guy's bracket; you were talking about the girls.

John Galt wrote:

powerkeep1 wrote:That's great. The playoffs will certainly separate the ladies from the girls in the regional semi-finals and finals and momentum built will certainly help. The most balanced teams will prevail and the best defenses tend to limit shots on goal to single digits and win in low scoring battles. The teams that have played playoff caliber teams all season will have the edge. Playing only a couple of good teams a season leading up to playoffs generally won't get it done. How a team responds to adversity really sets the tone.

Are you predicting that 4-5A is overrated and wont get it done?

4-5A is not a strong district.  They have two strong teams, and everyone else.  Go to 5-5A, and you have 4 teams capable of beating each other on any given day. Then you look at the alignments for next year, when they have the Plano schools joining them, and you have 6 or 7 teams capable of beating each other, and only 4 going to the playoffs.

4-5A top three teams have nice talent on both sides of the field and a good mix of experience and very talented freshman. 4-5A has narrowed the talent gap and have some super talented young players coming in the next few years. Top two teams are strong enough to take home the title.

powerkeep1 wrote:4-5A top three teams have nice talent on both sides of the field and a good mix of experience and very talented freshman. 4-5A has narrowed the talent gap and have some super talented young players coming in the next few years. Top two teams are strong enough to take home the title.

By my count 14  North Texas teams began the playoffs strong enough to take home the title. After round 1 we're down to 13. 4-5A's best, Keller and Carroll have experience vs 3 of them. Carroll has a tie 1-1 vs Belton and Keller has a tie 0-0 vs Marcus. Keller also has a 0-5 loss vs Flower Mound. The good news for both is they should both make the Regional Semis with little trouble. Then they will be able to demonstrate how good they are vs whats left of the the top teams. If the other two that make the region 1 semis are healthy then they should be fun games to watch. The strongest remaining from Region 2 Plano West, Allen, Boyd and Sachse will be watching and waiting.

Match-ups starting to get more interesting. Age old dilemma though....quality DFW teams will be eliminated playing each other while far inferior teams continue to advance.

5A games of note:
Sachse vs McKinney Boyd
Mansfield vs Coppell
Marcus vs Belton
Flower Mound vs Midlothian

socrocks wrote:Match-ups starting to get more interesting. Age old dilemma though....quality DFW teams will be eliminated playing each other while far inferior teams continue to advance.

5A games of note:
Sachse vs McKinney Boyd
Mansfield vs Coppell
Marcus vs Belton
Flower Mound vs Midlothian

Game of the week is clearly Sachse vs. Boyd...although the rest of those are great match ups.

Great 4A match up...and probably much too early for 2nd round: Frisco vs. Highland Park

Boyd will edge Sachse. 3-2
Mansfield over Coppell PKs
Midlothian over FM 1-0
Upset of the day Belton over Marcus. 2-1.
Key injuries to Marcus weakens their defense with an already challenged offense.
Only Hebron returns a team as good as last season in 5-5A. Strong district off year

Marcus wins over Belton...hope the next game is closer to home  

Coppell 1 Mansfield O

SoccerDad24 wrote:1. 5-5A
2. 10-5A
3.  4-5A
4. 7-5A
5. 6-5A

District 10 has perhaps a better chance of producing the State champion IMHO, but 5-5A goes a bit deeper.

All 4 district teams remaining I believe
- 4-5A
- 10-5A

So, is the State Championship between the winner of Region 2&4 vs the winner of Region 1&3? Or do they stay separate?

FatherGoose wrote:So, is the State Championship between the winner of Region 2&4 vs the winner of Region 1&3?  Or do they stay separate?

No. Once each Regional winner is determined...they re-see the Final 4 based on Record.

SoccerDad24 wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

soccersounder wrote:11 5-A has a team that go all the way as well

And that would set a few scoring records along the way!

Starting to feel good about this prediction

How about now ?

I'll give SoccerDad24 some credit - it was as good a prediction as any in my billion dollar bracket. The game was a nail biter from start to finish. It could have easily gone the other way. It more reflects the prior point that some less deserving teams will advance through the sheer luck of seeding (while teams like Sachse and Boyd have to battle it out in the second round).

It will be interesting to see how Sachse looks next year. They return some quality players, but are also losing some quality seniors.

Class 5A Final DFW Girls Rankings
http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/high-schools/headlines/20140319-soccer-rankings-march-20-coppell-leads-5a-boys-carroll-no.-1-in-5a-girls-on-final-ranking.ece

And, who is next in Regional Quarter-finals. More head-to-head district games....again.

1. Southlake Carroll v Timbercreek
2. Plano West v Allen
3. McKinney Boyd v McKinney
4. Mansfield (out)
5. Sachse (out)
6. Hebron v Midlothian
7. Flower Mound Marcus v Coppell
8. Grapevine (out)
9. Midlothian v Hebron
10. Keller v Keller Central

bwgophers wrote:

gold digger wrote:No tougher district in the State than 5-5A.  

I'm thinking 4-5A or 10-5A may have a say in that as well...

Looking ahead to the next couple of years, 9-6A is going to be redonkulous...

------
6-6A next year - two of strongest soccer districts merge?
http://www.uiltexas.org/files/alignments/SC_6A_2014-15.pdf

5 of remaining 32 teams in playoffs this season....
Allen, Hebron, Marcus, McKinney Boyd, Plano West

rockindaddy wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

soccersounder wrote:11 5-A has a team that go all the way as well

And that would set a few scoring records along the way!

Starting to feel good about this prediction

How about now ?

I feel good about it. They were a legitimate team, with something like 6 of the area's top 25 scorers, or something ridiculous like that. WAY too early for both those teams to have to play one another.

My "official" prediction is a State Final of Boyd over Hebron.

Seeing the talent of Sachse's younger players, I would expect them to be even stronger next year.

Hebron will have to beat two of the strongest defensive teams just to make the regional final. Midlothian already beat them once. Wouldn't overlook Austin Westlake or Kingwood in Region 2. a lot of good soccer match ups left

SoccerDad24 wrote:

rockindaddy wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

soccersounder wrote:11 5-A has a team that go all the way as well

And that would set a few scoring records along the way!

Starting to feel good about this prediction

How about now ?

I feel good about it.  They were a legitimate team, with something like 6 of the area's top 25 scorers, or something ridiculous like that.  WAY too early for both those teams to have to play one another.

My "official" prediction is a State Final of Boyd over Hebron.

I have not seen Sachse play but have no doubt they are a good team. I just think the amount of goals they scored had alot to do with there opponents. Playing tough teams every week generally bodes well in the playoffs. That is why you see 5-5a and 10-5a and even 4-5a doing well. I have seen both Boyd and Hebron play and would favor Hebron if that where the matchup which I highly doubt it will be.

SoccerDad24 wrote:

rockindaddy wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

SoccerDad24 wrote:

soccersounder wrote:11 5-A has a team that go all the way as well

And that would set a few scoring records along the way!

Starting to feel good about this prediction

How about now ?

I feel good about it.  They were a legitimate team, with something like 6 of the area's top 25 scorers, or something ridiculous like that.  WAY too early for both those teams to have to play one another.

My "official" prediction is a State Final of Boyd over Hebron.

What's the old saying about 'defense wins championships'? I always forget the offensive part.

Having seen most of the top teams still alive in NTX, my assessment:

McBoyd is my front-runner. Very well-coached, disciplined team that can beat you a lot of different ways. Solid offense and defense….nice possession team paired with solid scoring tactics. They’ve played a solid district schedule and non-district also. IMO, the best team my dd’s team faced this year, including almost all on this list. Win over Sachse was huge.

Plano West can’t be overlooked. Probably not the team they’ve had the previous 2-3 years but still very good. I think everyone’s looking for the “new darlings” and might be overlooking them. I don’t feel they’re as tactically sound as Boyd but a very strong team.

Hebron has overcome a sluggish start and won a solid district (without a loss). I don’t feel this district has a superstar team but the district is strong/deep; Hebron would be the closest thing to a standout. They seem to be playing well now. Not sure I’d call them a favorite to win State but they are far better than Midlothian and I think they will beat Keller to advance to the Regional Final to play either Coppell/Marcus/Southlake where I’d again predict Hebron to win.

SL Carroll – only team in this group I have not seen play. Great record, so clearly they’re capable. I’m not sure their schedule will have them as prepared as some of the other teams. Not a particularly strong district (top to bottom) and an easy first few rounds of the playoffs could work either for/against them. They’re solid every year though. My guess is that they are comparable to the Marcus/Coppell/Grapevine/Mansfield/Flower Mound group. Their first playoff test will be against the Coppell/Marcus winner. I’d call that one a toss-up.

Marcus/Coppell – as referenced above, I believe these teams are a coin toss along with the group above. They wouldn’t be my pick to win State but are capable enough of causing problems and still faring well. Both have played a good schedule and have shown they’re again top teams. But both have also shown vulnerability.

Keller – not sure who the real Keller is. To their credit, split with Southlake and tied Marcus…but were beaten by Flower Mound 5-0. Hasn’t given up many goals. Much like Southlake, soft playoff path could be + or -. Should beat Keller Central but predict their run ends with Hebron.

Midlothian – early season win over Hebron and playoff win vs Flower Mound Friday. Records can be deceiving and so can some wins. FM dominated game Friday, Midlothian got an opportune goal on free kick and got solid play from keeper. No disrespect intended to Midlothian but they’d have been hard-pressed to finish in top 5 in 5-5A or 10-5A. Not enough to get past Hebron this time.

We’re used to State titles in N Texas but I’m not so sure that N Texas isn’t down a bit this year, across the board. Maybe the door is cracked for our neighbors to the south???

Your assessment is right on with the exception of your thoughts on Southlake Carroll. They are a well coached unit that has been prepared for the physical and mental challenges of the game from the 1st day of practice. Matt Colvin in his 13th season was quoted as saying this group is the fastest he has ever coached. Team has multiple scoring options and a very experienced back line to help out their goal keeper.Very likely an extremely tough out. Keller started slow out of the gate with only a few returning starters but to their coaches credit brought up 4 freshman starters who brought the needed balance to a very good defensive unit.They did play an aggressive pre-season schedule that prepared them well for a nice playoff run. The 5-0 loss to FM was due to Keller playing their entire bench second half and The jaquars playing their starting unit from start to finish. Starting defensive unit has given up 5 goals all season.Carroll scored 3 goals in last 4 match-ups and Keller played Boyd last season twice and lost 1-0 in what were two very close games. Current team is better in all aspects to last year's squad.

Re: SL Carroll
I have no quibble with how good they are. My apprehension is their lack of intense competition over the season....especially the last few playoff games. This concern came to me from a Carroll parent. Some of the playoff teams have been engaged in a lot of "grinders" and have that mentality every game. Not sure Southlake's intensity is piqued yet. But again, this MAY actually serve them well. They should be well rested and have plenty left in the tank.

Re: Keller
No doubt a very good defensive team which gives them a chance in every game they play. Your input about the Flower Mound subbing is wildly inaccurate. FM was missing 3 starters and played a number of subs throughout the game...especially in the 2nd half. In fact, 2 FM goals came from a player who saw very few minutes thru the course of the season.