Spring 2012 '02 FBR - 2-18-12

uglydoll wrote:I don't believe it is TFC Larry in TGPL silver. I think it is TFC Elite Wells in TGPL. I don't know where TFC Larry plays.

Yup. Thanks. I got a PM along those lines as well. According to that PM, TFC Larry is playing SDL, but the SDL schedule site doesn't have them listed.

I'm sure I'll find them if they are out there.

uglydoll wrote:Is there any significance to the font color? Just curious.

As far as the rankings go, none whatsoever.

My predecessor who started the whole FBR thing went whole hog on trying to match the font color to the primary color of the team uniform/logo. In fact if you look at the ranking tier snapshot, you even see little club logos next to most of the teams.

Who knows, if I get bored again, maybe I'll go so far as to try and match everything up again.

Many thanks to the folks who've posted and PM'd me since yesterday with info to help me get things straightened out.

I think I've got this '02 group pretty well set, but still have questions about a few teams. The following teams played at least one tournament in Nov-Feb, but I can't find them signed up in any Spring academy league. If anyone has info on the following teams, please send me a PM.

TFC Larry
Sting Gutierrez
FC Dallas South Baraket
GSSC Thunder North Harper

Thanks!

If a game in a tournament final ends with a tie, say 2-2. Do you record the score as a tie? or do you record it 3-2 giving whomever won the PK's the win?

uglydoll wrote:If a game in a tournament final ends with a tie, say 2-2. Do you record the score as a tie? or do you record it 3-2 giving whomever won the PK's the win?

Historically, for FBR, I've always treated tourney bracket games that go to PK's as a draw. To me, for the purpose of a computer ranking, it just makes sense to try and treat all games the same, and in order to truly do that, I should only count what happened during regulation time.

Now, with that said, I'm playing catch-up on what I just put together for the '02's. I pulled all scores from the tournament websites, and they won't tell you if a game was won in regulation, OT, or PK's. I haven't gone back through all of the forum postings to try and find out if any of these games went to PK's. So, admittedly, I may have some tourney games that were actually won in PK's that are currently counted as a W/L instead of a D/D for both teams.

If anyone is aware of such a game and makes me aware of it, I will change the result.

I guess no one is going to say it so I will. How is Solar Chelsea Gio #7 in the rankings? Simply by winning a few weak silver bracket tournaments? I thought you had to play real compitition to get ranked high Isn't that the excuse always given for losing teams ranked high or winning teams ranked low? We played them in SDL last season and the only reason we only won by 1 goal was their goalie. (who I heard actually played for polaris). We had at least 8+ shots on goal and the kid saved them like crazy. We completely ate their defense for lunch and they got maybe 1 or 2 shots off.

Let's be careful not to rub the ranking guru the wrong way. I am SO excited that he is doing this, I'm going to get pissy if anybody scares him off. The secret of Solar Gio's high ranking is hidden in the mysteries of the math formula, which has been explained ad nauseum. The only reason I call it a mystery is because I still don't really understand it. I'm pretty sure you weren't criticizing bwgopher, but just expressing confusion with the formula. I just want everyone to be very clear that they aren't killing the messenger, ya know?

And FYI, I've seen them play. I thought they played well, but they might have had guests as it was a tournament. Maybe they just had a bad day the day your dd played them. I think they've beaten some decent teams.

imasoccerfreak wrote:Let's be careful not to rub the ranking guru the wrong way. I am SO excited that he is doing this, I'm going to get pissy if anybody scares him off. The secret of Solar Gio's high ranking is hidden in the mysteries of the math formula, which has been explained ad nauseum. The only reason I call it a mystery is because I still don't really understand it. I'm pretty sure you weren't criticizing bwgopher, but just expressing confusion with the formula. I just want everyone to be very clear that they aren't killing the messenger, ya know?

And FYI, I've seen them play. I thought they played well, but they might have had guests as it was a tournament. Maybe they just had a bad day the day your dd played them. I think they've beaten some decent teams.

Is that why there was very little discussion of the rankings? I'm sure Gophers will speak for himself. I don't thin the questions about the rankings were the issue, but the questioning of 02dad's integrity that was out of line.

1) I don't scare off that easy. I doubt you folks can throw anything at me that the '01's didn't throw at me in spades last year.

2) As I stated in the original post in this thread, the current rankings are based off of a limited set of data that is dominated by fall/winter tournament results. Based solely on those results, I'm sure Solar Gio is pretty close to where they should be. If they deserve to stay there, they will prove it through their league results this Spring. If their league results don't measure up to those around them, the rankings will adjust themselves.

Gio parents paying gophers to manipulate data! Nice post "guest"

I guess you guys missed the fact that 02dad disappeared with his data history and all.

If I understand it right, gophers is starting over with only a limited amount of data. As more game data comes in, teams will move around quite quickly because of the skinny data at the start. Gio is way up there because they have been winning and playing a lot but they may have trouble staying there as the spring season plays out. I would bet that FBR will start to look more like the last human rankings in a month or two just in time for LH QT. What I don't know if teams that popped up kind of high somehow qualified in a tougher "tier" than they may have been before with deeper history data. Will that help teams stay up?

Sole roll wrote:Gio parents paying gophers to manipulate data! Nice post "guest"

It's a conspiracy!

Nice plug keepers parents, or should I say guest!!!!!!!!!!

voiceofreason wrote:Nice plug keepers parents, or should I say guest!!!!!!!!!!

Another conspiracy!

I have a question? How does one sign in as a guest? I'd like to get on here and say mean stuff about other teams...how do I do that?

javajake wrote:I guess you guys missed the fact that 02dad disappeared with his data history and all.

If I understand it right, gophers is starting over with only a limited amount of data. As more game data comes in, teams will move around quite quickly because of the skinny data at the start. Gio is way up there because they have been winning and playing a lot but they may have trouble staying there as the spring season plays out. I would bet that FBR will start to look more like the last human rankings in a month or two just in time for LH QT. What I don't know if teams that popped up kind of high somehow qualified in a tougher "tier" than they may have been before with deeper history data. Will that help teams stay up?

You've got it mostly right JJ. The exception is that whatever ranking tier a team is in has very little impact on their own ranking. What is important is what ranking tier a team's OPPONENTS are in.

Gio is currently ranked ahead of teams like Fever Red and Sting Searls because they all played fairly similar levels of competition in their winter tournaments, BUT, Gio played more and, most importantly, won more.

As the league season progresses, Fever Red and Sting Searls are going to have an inherent advantage in Strength of Schedule (SoS) because they are playing TGPL Gold while Gio is playing TGPL silver. HOWEVER, they are still going to have to perform reasonably well to earn their rankings. If Fever performs in line with their historical results, I would expect them to likely pass Gio in the rankings within the next few weeks. If Sting continues to put up results in line with their recent league victory over Polaris, I would expect the same from them.

Now by the same token, Gio actually beat Sting Searls in Nov. Primetime. Gio also beat one fo their TGPL Silver opponents, FCD Renfro in Winter Classic.

In that same time period, FCD Renfro has beaten teams like LP St. John, D'Feeters, Polaris, Tx. Spirit. These were all teams that were ranked ahead of Gio in the most recent "human" poll (https://www.txsoccer.net/t9614p60-human-rankings-until-fbr-is-back).

Now, does that mean Gio truly belongs above all of those teams at this point and that they will stay there through the Spring? Maybe, maybe not. However, can you make a case based solely on the recent results that Gio belongs there today? Certainly.

Did Gio use a bunch of guests to win tournaments Over the winter????

Mommabear, wishing you and your family the best. Don't worry about this board!

Hi

I hope everything works out for you and your family, sorry you are going through this and don't fret about this rdiculous board, it means nothing in the end.

imasoccerfreak wrote:Let's be careful not to rub the ranking guru the wrong way. I am SO excited that he is doing this, I'm going to get pissy if anybody scares him off. The secret of Solar Gio's high ranking is hidden in the mysteries of the math formula, which has been explained ad nauseum. The only reason I call it a mystery is because I still don't really understand it. I'm pretty sure you weren't criticizing bwgopher, but just expressing confusion with the formula. I just want everyone to be very clear that they aren't killing the messenger, ya know?

And FYI, I've seen them play. I thought they played well, but they might have had guests as it was a tournament. Maybe they just had a bad day the day your dd played them. I think they've beaten some decent teams.

many already know this but for anyone new..i setup an rankings website last year to store all of gophers explanations and archived rankings. i pasted many past questions and his answers at http://www.ntxsoccer.net/rankings.aspx

I also just added the question/answer in this thread about cWL.

I've decided that going forward, I will "visit" my Avatar on any wayward forum - gone astray due to ridiculous comments - scattering the gawkers as they shield their eyes from my entrancing yet horrifying image.

Think of me as a modern Medusa sent by the soccer gods to carry out their wrath on idiotic posters.

Here's a mirror. Take it and.....