'02 Consolidated Rankings - 04-11-2012

Thanks for the work Sir Gophers!

Can you explain what it takes to pass the team ahead of your team? For example, how much does one result matter if your team needs to leapfrog a 5 point gap in points assuming they are playing teams in their own tier? I assume passing a team that is only 1 point in front of you is relatively easy, but I'd assume 5 points takes more than one game?

Also, I see that FCD Grubb seems to have a huge point lead over the three teams in the 70's. What would it take for anybody to catch FCD Grubb at this point? Would a Grubb loss or tie to one of the 70's teams matter much?

Lastly, what about DT Higg in re-entry to girls from playing exclusively against boys? Will they be able to play just a couple of tournament games and vault back into top of the heap rankings? The belief of course is that they will beat everyone they will face in their next 8 - 10 games over two tournaments.

deepthoughts wrote:Thanks for the work Sir Gophers!

Can you explain what it takes to pass the team ahead of your team? For example, how much does one result matter if your team needs to leapfrog a 5 point gap in points assuming they are playing teams in their own tier? I assume passing a team that is only 1 point in front of you is relatively easy, but I'd assume 5 points takes more than one game?

Also, I see that FCD Grubb seems to have a huge point lead over the three teams in the 70's. What would it take for anybody to catch FCD Grubb at this point? Would a Grubb loss or tie to one of the 70's teams matter much?

Lastly, what about DT Higg in re-entry to girls from playing exclusively against boys? Will they be able to play just a couple of tournament games and vault back into top of the heap rankings? The belief of course is that they will beat everyone they will face in their next 8 - 10 games over two tournaments.

There are too many factors involved in the calculation to say "this is what Team A needs to do to pass Team B".
Do you have to do less to pass a team that is 1 point ahead of you compared to 5 pts. ahead of you? Yes. What will it take in either case to do that? Can't say with any kind of exactness (is that even a word?). I do monitor relative point changes between teams as a sanity check to make sure everything is correct in the DB and the calculations are working correctly (i.e. Did the point gap between 2 teams increase or decrease after the most recent results, and does that move jive with what the actual results were?). I can give general predictions, but not exact ones.

FCD Premier has the perfect storm going right now. They haven't been beaten, only been tied once, have the 2nd hardest schedule just hundreths of a percentage point behind D'Feeters, and have the largest average Margin of Victory of any '02 team. They're not only playing the toughest competition and beating all of the them, but they are beating them worse then any other team is beating their opponents. They should be #1 by a large margin. My guess is that they'd have to lose at least twice, and either SRSA or Dynamo would have to go on a 3-4 game tear against other top 5 teams, winning all of those games by 3+ goal margins.

As for DT Higgy - I wouldn't expect it to take them long to get slotted back into FBR where they belong. If they come in and play 5 games in a tourney against mostly top 10 opponents with at least 1 or 2 top 5 teams thrown in there, and perform like they have in the past, FBR will slot them in pretty accurately.

How can you tell where the cutoff is between tiers? Like what teams are tier 1, tier 2, tier 3? Am I missing something simple?

dirknowitzki wrote:How can you tell where the cutoff is between tiers? Like what teams are tier 1, tier 2, tier 3? Am I missing something simple?

Based on what I've posted in this thread, you can't. When I post this week's update, I include the current tiers. It's just a time issue of having to do all of the cut-n-paste.

There is nothing in the ranking calculation that fundamentally prevents the top teams from a lower tier from being ranked above the bottom teams from an upper tier, and in fact, there usually is intermixing at the boundaries between tiers.

bwgophers wrote:

dirknowitzki wrote:How can you tell where the cutoff is between tiers? Like what teams are tier 1, tier 2, tier 3? Am I missing something simple?

Based on what I've posted in this thread, you can't. When I post this week's update, I include the current tiers. It's just a time issue of having to do all of the cut-n-paste.

There is nothing in the ranking calculation that fundamentally prevents the top teams from a lower tier from being ranked above the bottom teams from an upper tier, and in fact, there usually is intermixing at the boundaries between tiers.

I'm not sure my cut-and-paster can handle that. Glad yours can. Intermixed upper-lower tiers is burning a hole in my German order and logic required thinking.