Old FBR comparisons

I was bored today and I love numbers so I decided to take a look back as some old FBR's and compare them to the most recent. I decided to look back at the FBR from basically 6 months ago and it's always fun to see which teams are moving up and which teams are falling down. The movement is expected but at this stage of the game you really hope that your team is a team that's moving up vs down, even more so over the next 6-8 months as parents start looking around.

DT Moreno/Dallas Rush (I think these are the same team but please correct me if I'm wrong), was #1 now they come in around #11. Obviously there was some transition over to Rush but that's a pretty sizable drop, it's actually the largest drop of any of the Top 20 teams from 6 months ago.

A team with a big jump was LP Gerrard, they moved from 16th to 5th which is a pretty nice jump as well. There are actually three different teams now in the Top 5 than 6 months ago. DT South Adames, Sting North Garrett and LP Gerrard. DTS and Sting though were sitting at 7 & 8 previously. Doesn't shock me that DTS has a team now in the Top 5, GA does an amazing job developing teams.

Besides Rush dropping to 11th the other two teams that dropped out of the Top 5 are Solar White Pulp and Sting Central Diaz, although dropping from 4th to 7th or 2nd to 6th really isn't that big of a deal. As long as you are still in that conversation you should be fine. It's when you start dropping out of the Top 10 or Top 20 you might start to worry a little.

Sting Parsons has jumped from 20th to 8th which I think is the largest jump of any of the teams in the Top 20. That's a pretty nice accomplishment.

Besides DT Moreno/Dallas Rush the only other Top 20 team that has had any significant movement was AFC Black Mayes which has dropped from 10th to 20th over the last 6 months.

Now that the spring seasons are upon us I'm sure there will be more movement as winter games drop off and more recent results are added. For the most part the teams inside the top 20 really haven't moved all that much, maybe a position or two one way or another. The fun thing about the 05 group is that no one has really seperated themselves like in past groups. Should be fun to watch over the next 14 months to see which teams start losing players and where do those players end up. With everything being so close at the top it's only going to take one or two players to start making a major impact. It's still a little too earlier to start worrying about LH's and seeding but those days aren't too far away.

Again, once the top teams are playing a large number of games in the 05 girls division this will all be more applicable. Teams that continue playing up, and teams playing boys divisions takes the larger sampling out of the equation, and allows quite a few more to be prominent at this point.

That is pure speculation. For all we know the playing field for the top 10 has leveled a bit. I do think there are a few teams that should be ranked in a much better spot, but that doesn't mean some of the other teams are not worthy.

No its pure fact. I know and can predict all 05 teams and movement.--- of course its speculation bro.
Next year when the only place the girls can play is 05 girls or boys, we will have a better sampling....more pure speculation on my part....

The top 20 in the '05 FBR is noisy, and is going to continue to be noisy for at least the next 2 months.

For some reason, a much larger # of top '05 teams are playing primarily in non-U9 girls' academy leagues at this point, than compared to the previous 4 age groups that I have published rankings for.

Usually, there has only been 1 or 2 top teams in an age group that didn't play in a U9 girls academy league during Spring of U9. With the '05's, there are currently 9 out of the top 21 teams that aren't playing in a U9 girls league this Spring:

Solar Chelsea Royal
DT South
Sting Hanlon
Dallas Rush Voutier
Sting Scarfone
Lady Aztecs
Solar Chelsea Abbott
FC Dallas Premier
Fever Red

So what you end up with, is a very small sample set of game results for these teams. Just by nature of statistics, the ranking for those teams will be less accurate, and any single game result with move the needle by a larger amount for those teams vs. others.

Come May/June tournament season, if a bunch of these 9 teams show up and play 1 or 2 tournaments in a U9 girls bracket, you will see the rankings stabilize and converge to a more accurate representation of the relative strength of the '05 teams.

If not... oh well. Can only do the best I can with what I've got...

Relax, "bro"! All I was saying is don't don't take away what some of the other teams have accomplished. I know that there are some teams ranked in the wrong spot, but that doesn't mean the other teams don't deserve some of the spot light. I also know of one team that claims to have two teams but in reality it's the same team w a few extra girls to change out.

Did I come across non relaxed? These darn forums.

  

I have said this before, I think each of the top 10 teams can beat any of the other top 10 teams on a given weekend.  As GrandTX mentioned, there is no dominant team and most of the games between these teams are fairly close scoring.  Now, my top 10 does not include Sting Hanlon but does include Rush Voutier and Lady Aztecs.  I guess that technically makes 11 (please excuse my Tarrant County math) but that is the top 11 in my humble opinion.

Here are some of the few Spring results we have thus far based on current FBR:
LP Hyypia (#1) beat North Garrett (#4) 3-1
Sting Central Parsons (#8 tied North Garrett (#4) 0-0
LP Hyypia (#1) beat D'Feeters Black (#9) 2-1
LP Gerrard (#5) beat Solar White Pulp (#7) 3-2
Sting North Garrett (#4) tied Sting Diaz (#6) 1-1
LP Hyypia (#1) beat LP Gerard (#5) 1-0
Sting Central Parsons (#8 beat Solar White Pulp (#7) 3-2
Dallas Rush Voutier (#11) tied Solar Royal Pulp (#2) 2-2
DT South (#3) beat Lady Aztecs (#13) 2-1

I probably missed a game or two but this is a tight group - only 1 game decided by more than 1 goal.

And by the way, I am not picking on Sting Hanlon, I just don't think they have played many (if any) of the top teams and therefore don't believe they belong there.  But they could soon.

Agreed

bwgophers wrote:The top 20 in the '05 FBR is noisy, and is going to continue to be noisy for at least the next 2 months.

For some reason, a much larger # of top '05 teams are playing primarily in non-U9 girls' academy leagues at this point, than compared to the previous 4 age groups that I have published rankings for.

Usually, there has only been 1 or 2 top teams in an age group that didn't play in a U9 girls academy league during Spring of U9.  With the '05's, there are currently 9 out of the top 21 teams that aren't playing in a U9 girls league this Spring:

Solar Chelsea Royal
DT South
Sting Hanlon
Dallas Rush Voutier
Sting Scarfone
Lady Aztecs
Solar Chelsea Abbott
FC Dallas Premier
Fever Red

So what you end up with, is a very small sample set of game results for these teams.  Just by nature of statistics, the ranking for those teams will be less accurate, and any single game result with move the needle by a larger amount for those teams vs. others.

Come May/June tournament season, if a bunch of these 9 teams show up and play 1 or 2 tournaments in a U9 girls bracket, you will see the rankings stabilize and converge to a more accurate representation of the relative strength of the '05 teams.

If not...  oh well.  Can only do the best I can with what I've got...

Solar Chelsea Abbott are playing in the 6v6 Platinum CFBAL division but I realize that's prob not useful for your rankings. We'll play 3-4 tournaments at the end of the season though to get more games against 05s. The other league we are playing in is PrimeTime 04 Silver which I know is useless for your stats

the7wolf wrote:

bwgophers wrote:The top 20 in the '05 FBR is noisy, and is going to continue to be noisy for at least the next 2 months.

For some reason, a much larger # of top '05 teams are playing primarily in non-U9 girls' academy leagues at this point, than compared to the previous 4 age groups that I have published rankings for.

Usually, there has only been 1 or 2 top teams in an age group that didn't play in a U9 girls academy league during Spring of U9.  With the '05's, there are currently 9 out of the top 21 teams that aren't playing in a U9 girls league this Spring:

Solar Chelsea Royal
DT South
Sting Hanlon
Dallas Rush Voutier
Sting Scarfone
Lady Aztecs
Solar Chelsea Abbott
FC Dallas Premier
Fever Red

So what you end up with, is a very small sample set of game results for these teams.  Just by nature of statistics, the ranking for those teams will be less accurate, and any single game result with move the needle by a larger amount for those teams vs. others.

Come May/June tournament season, if a bunch of these 9 teams show up and play 1 or 2 tournaments in a U9 girls bracket, you will see the rankings stabilize and converge to a more accurate representation of the relative strength of the '05 teams.

If not...  oh well.  Can only do the best I can with what I've got...

Solar Chelsea Abbott are playing in the 6v6 Platinum CFBAL division but I realize that's prob not useful for your rankings. We'll play 3-4 tournaments at the end of the season though to get more games against 05s. The other league we are playing in is PrimeTime 04 Silver which I know is useless for your stats

You '05 girls' academy coaches are so arrogant and self-absorbed!!! How dare you ignore FBR rankings and make a choice on where to have your girls play this Spring, based on what you think is best for their development, or what logistically works best for you and/or your families.

You'll pay for this slight! Believe me... YOU'LL PAY!!!    

^^^^^^^^    Nicely done.

I do agree with BW that it seems like more 05 teams are playing up these days than in years past. Seems like folks are trying to get to 11v11 quicker each year. I like the idea of playing 6v6 along with 11v11 or 9v9, more touches and more movement off the ball.

By this time next year the old reliable FBR will give a much better feel for where every team is and I'll be sure to look back and compare again then