Projecting D1 - Who Gets Bye

Looking ahead, I believe there are 4 teams that virtually have their tickets punched to a D1 bye and can avoid the "Play-In" tournament featuring teams 7-12 and 1-2 of D2....those four teams are Andromeda, Sting Parker, Solar Elite, and Solar Chelsea.

IMO, it looks like there are 5 teams battling for the remaining two bye spots (5 & 6 in the standings)...Sting North, Sting Brown, Solar Gold, Sting Ferretti, and FCD Premier.  

Here is how they currently stand, and who each team has remaining on their schedule...Fall & Spring, in order...before the play-in tourney...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD Premier, Andromeda, Solar Elite
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD Premier
Solar Gold (16):  Sting Ferretti, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite
FCD Premier (16):  Solar Elite, Sting Garrett, Sting Parker, Sting Brown
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andromeda, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs


While there could always be upsets, projecting out how this will play out...
Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD Premier, Andromeda, Solar Elite...L-W-L-L
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD Premier...L-L-W-W
Solar Gold (16):  Sting Ferretti, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite...??-L-L
FCD Premier (16):  Solar Elite, Sting Garrett, Sting Parker, Sting Brown...L-L-L-L
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andromeda, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...L-W-??-W


To me, it looks like the Ferretti v Solar Gold match scheduled for 11/15 might be one of, if not THE deciding game....pending that game, point standings would look like this with the predicted finish above...

Sting Brown - 23
Sting North - 20
Sting Ferretti - 19 (pending Solar Gold)
Solar Gold - 16 (pending Sting Ferretti)
FCD Premier - 16

If Ferretti should win the game vs. Solar Gold, I think the 5/6 slots would go to Sting Brown/Sting Ferretti...if Solar Gold wins that game, looks like the 5/6 slots go to Sting Brown/Sting North.  Looking back, it looks like the most recent match between Ferretti and Gold was a 1-0 Ferretti win in the Plano Labor Day tourney.

Could get interesting...thoughts!

FCD Premier won last night. so they are at 16. I dont know the final score , but I know they won

Good catch Seven...I'll update that.

The Plano Labor Day with SG and Feretti was a 0-0 tie with gold attacking most of the game just couldn't finish. Went to shoot out with SF winning

The history between these two is long...since we have been there, the games are almost always tight, one-goal affairs. I expect to see nothing less when the girls face off again in a few weeks.

As for the rest of the post...I can't argue about Hopkins...I think they punched their ticket last night...they could come close to losing out, and still make it into the 6.

I am not sure about FCDP being mostly written off...they have a tough schedule, but they also have a history of stepping up in adverse circumstances. My bet is that they are a player for spoiler at the very least...

Brown isn't guaranteed anything, and they and Garrett have very difficult schedules...not that they can't pull out points, but it is going to be tough.

Add in any ties, and you get a LOT of craziness...I think it will be more interesting every week.

And the 500 lb gorilla...what is the word on CPP in the playoffs?? If LH says that there won't be any allowed, then expect to see some additional dual rostered players appear...and perhaps NOT because teams want to, but because if they don't, they will be left behind by those who do...If teams get a couple injured in the HS season, it will definitely happen to at least give a healthy roster for the tournament.

dadof3 wrote:The history between these two is long...since we have been there, the games are almost always tight, one-goal affairs.  I expect to see nothing less when the girls face off again in a few weeks.

As for the rest of the post...I can't argue about Hopkins...I think they punched their ticket last night...they could come close to losing out, and still make it into the 6.

I am not sure about FCDP being mostly written off...they have a tough schedule, but they also have a history of stepping up in adverse circumstances.  My bet is that they are a player for spoiler at the very least...

Brown isn't guaranteed anything, and they and Garrett have very difficult schedules...not that they can't pull out points, but it is going to be tough.

Add in any ties, and you get a LOT of craziness...I think it will be more interesting every week.

And the 500 lb gorilla...what is the word on CPP in the playoffs??  If LH says that there won't be any allowed, then expect to see some additional dual rostered players appear...and perhaps NOT because teams want to, but because if they don't, they will be left behind by those who do...If teams get a couple injured in the HS season, it will definitely happen to at least give a healthy roster for the tournament.

Very insightful post

As far as CPP in the playoffs here is what I received from the Commissioner when asked:


A Club Pass Player may play regular season League games for other teams withintheir Club (referred to as “Receiving Teams” herein) under all of the following

restrictions:


Playoff games are not regular season games. U19s are allowed 5 in regular season and playoffs.

So it appears no CPP for the playoffs.

FCDP plays a tough game for sure. Knowing how scrappy both SG and ST are, I think that will be a game to watch. Every team in D1 can still have a Cinderella moment that is unexpected.

What will be truly interesting will be the rain out weekend games with ECNL teams going out of town.

Stack, that is good stuff! I really can't vehemently disagree with any of your thinking, but based on the few FCD matches I've seen this year and the fact they have the possibility of receiving help from above, i can't give them 4 losses. Their scoring 5 goals vs the Aztecs was impressive...

With HS, ecnl, showcases, tournaments, etc., the Fall matches may not have the same rosters... Here's my 2 cents...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD, Andro, Solar Elite... 1 D, 3 L's,
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD... 1 W, 3 L's.
Solar Gold (16):  Sting F, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite... 1 W, 1D, 1L
FCD (16):  Solar Elite, Sting G, Sting P, Sting Brown...2 W's, 2 L's
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andro, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...1W, 1D, 2L

Sting Brown - 20
Sting North - 17
Sting Ferretti - 17
Solar Gold - 20
FCD Premier - 22

Since teams may get conservative trying NOT to lose, a few additional Draws here and there would not be surprising.

What's the tie breaker for 3 teams tied for 6th spot?

Packrabbit wrote:Stack, that is good stuff! I really can't vehemently disagree with any of your thinking, but based on the few FCD matches I've seen this year and the fact they have the possibility of receiving help from above, i can't give them 4 losses. Their scoring 5 goals vs the Aztecs was impressive...

With HS, ecnl, showcases, tournaments, etc., the Fall matches may not have the same rosters... Here's my 2 cents...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD, Andro, Solar Elite... 1 D, 3 L's,
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD... 1 W, 3 L's.
Solar Gold (16):  Sting F, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite... 1 W, 1D, 1L
FCD (16):  Solar Elite, Sting G, Sting P, Sting Brown...2 W's, 2 L's
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andro, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...1W, 1D, 2L

Sting Brown - 20
Sting North - 20
Sting Ferretti - 17
Solar Gold - 20
FCD Premier - 22

Since teams may get conservative trying NOT to lose, a few additional Draws here and there would not be surprising.

What's the tie breaker for 3 teams tied for 6th spot?

In your scenario the three way wouldn't matter because sting Garrett would have 18 and brown and SG would be tied at 20...and brown holds the head to head.

dadof3 wrote:

Packrabbit wrote:Stack, that is good stuff! I really can't vehemently disagree with any of your thinking, but based on the few FCD matches I've seen this year and the fact they have the possibility of receiving help from above, i can't give them 4 losses. Their scoring 5 goals vs the Aztecs was impressive...

With HS, ecnl, showcases, tournaments, etc., the Fall matches may not have the same rosters... Here's my 2 cents...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD, Andro, Solar Elite... 1 D, 3 L's,
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD... 1 W, 3 L's.
Solar Gold (16):  Sting F, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite... 1 W, 1D, 1L
FCD (16):  Solar Elite, Sting G, Sting P, Sting Brown...2 W's, 2 L's
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andro, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...1W, 1D, 2L

Sting Brown - 18
Sting North - 20
Sting Ferretti - 17
Solar Gold - 20
FCD Premier - 22

Since teams may get conservative trying NOT to lose, a few additional Draws here and there would not be surprising.

What's the tie breaker for 3 teams tied for 6th spot?

In your scenario the three way wouldn't matter because sting Garrett would have 18 and brown and SG would be tied at 20...and brown holds the head to head.

Opps, my bad (math), I corrected it!

Actually, I see a few scenerios where Brown, North and Ferretti all go to the playoffs, ESPECIALLY if these Sting Brown, North and Ferretti Draws continue... They actually allow Club Solar, SG and FCD to control their destiny.  

Please bear with me while I speculate:

#1:  Matches against Elite, Sting P and Hopkins are not automatic "L"
Both FCD and SG's past has proven both teams have "help from above" available as well. Both teams matches against Solar and Sting P are not automatic "L's"... Even with all of its its roster help, Solar Chelsea's 1-0 score over Garrett and Andro, does not imply that either match was a dominate, preordained victory.

#2: Next Spring, evertything CHANGES:
Next Spring, the ECNL & HS schedules could very well make some of these Sting and Solar teams play with their original or "less helped" rosters. No disrespect to any players, and contrary to popular belief, not all ecnl played are difference makers.  For example, per post match reports, the Solars (Elite & Chelsea), in their 2 matches against Andro, 4 of the 5 of the goals came directly from 2 ECNL helpers, the other score was the result of an assist.  

Although I am simplifying the matches, I think most would agree 'finishing' is somewhat important.   The information implies that should those 2 players not be available, the Solars matches against SG & FCD are not guaranteed victories...

#3: Ultimate Irony: A Lack of CPP may hurt Club Sting
Lastly, next Spring, if both solar teams D1 byes are assured, Club Solar may not see the need to risk their high end players against FCD & SG, which might have the effect of sending Club Sting's D1's bubble teams to the playoffs.    

Packrabbit wrote:

dadof3 wrote:

Packrabbit wrote:Stack, that is good stuff! I really can't vehemently disagree with any of your thinking, but based on the few FCD matches I've seen this year and the fact they have the possibility of receiving help from above, i can't give them 4 losses. Their scoring 5 goals vs the Aztecs was impressive...

With HS, ecnl, showcases, tournaments, etc., the Fall matches may not have the same rosters... Here's my 2 cents...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD, Andro, Solar Elite... 1 D, 3 L's,
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD... 1 W, 3 L's.
Solar Gold (16):  Sting F, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite... 1 W, 1D, 1L
FCD (16):  Solar Elite, Sting G, Sting P, Sting Brown...2 W's, 2 L's
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andro, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...1W, 1D, 2L

Sting Brown - 18
Sting North - 20
Sting Ferretti - 17
Solar Gold - 20
FCD Premier - 22

Since teams may get conservative trying NOT to lose, a few additional Draws here and there would not be surprising.

What's the tie breaker for 3 teams tied for 6th spot?

In your scenario the three way wouldn't matter because sting Garrett would have 18 and brown and SG would be tied at 20...and brown holds the head to head.

Opps, my bad (math), I corrected it!

Actually, I see a few scenerios where Brown, North and Ferretti all go to the playoffs, ESPECIALLY if these Sting Brown, North and Ferretti Draws continue... They actually allow Club Solar, SG and FCD to control their destiny.  

Please bear with me while I speculate:

#1:  Matches against Elite, Sting P and Hopkins are not automatic "L"
Both FCD and SG's past has proven both teams have "help from above" available as well. Both teams matches against Solar and Sting P are not automatic "L's"... Even with all of its its roster help, Solar Chelsea's 1-0 score over Garrett and Andro, does not imply that either match was a dominate, preordained victory.

#2: Next Spring, evertything CHANGES:
Next Spring, the ECNL & HS schedules could very well make some of these Sting and Solar teams play with their original or "less helped" rosters. No disrespect to any players, and contrary to popular belief, not all ecnl played are difference makers.  For example, per post match reports, the Solars (Elite & Chelsea), in their 2 matches against Andro, 4 of the 5 of the goals came directly from 2 ECNL helpers, the other score was the result of an assist.  

Although I am simplifying the matches, I think most would agree 'finishing' is somewhat important.   The information implies that should those 2 players not be available, the Solars matches against SG & FCD are not guaranteed victories...

#3: Ultimate Irony: A Lack of CPP may hurt Club Sting
Lastly, next Spring, if both solar teams D1 byes are assured, Club Solar may not see the need to risk their high end players against FCD & SG, which might have the effect of sending Club Sting's D1's bubble teams to the playoffs.    

Chelsea lost to Garrett 1-0......now if you are referring to Garrett's 1-0 loss to Gold......well that was an off-side goal

Seven wrote:

Packrabbit wrote:

dadof3 wrote:

Packrabbit wrote:Stack, that is good stuff! I really can't vehemently disagree with any of your thinking, but based on the few FCD matches I've seen this year and the fact they have the possibility of receiving help from above, i can't give them 4 losses. Their scoring 5 goals vs the Aztecs was impressive...

With HS, ecnl, showcases, tournaments, etc., the Fall matches may not have the same rosters... Here's my 2 cents...

Sting North (17):  Sting Parker, FCD, Andro, Solar Elite... 1 D, 3 L's,
Sting Brown (17):  Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite, DTN, FCD... 1 W, 3 L's.
Solar Gold (16):  Sting F, Solar Chelsea, Solar Elite... 1 W, 1D, 1L
FCD (16):  Solar Elite, Sting G, Sting P, Sting Brown...2 W's, 2 L's
Sting Ferretti (13):  Andro, DTN, Solar Gold, Mustangs...1W, 1D, 2L

Sting Brown - 18
Sting North - 20
Sting Ferretti - 17
Solar Gold - 20
FCD Premier - 22

Since teams may get conservative trying NOT to lose, a few additional Draws here and there would not be surprising.

What's the tie breaker for 3 teams tied for 6th spot?

In your scenario the three way wouldn't matter because sting Garrett would have 18 and brown and SG would be tied at 20...and brown holds the head to head.

Opps, my bad (math), I corrected it!

Actually, I see a few scenerios where Brown, North and Ferretti all go to the playoffs, ESPECIALLY if these Sting Brown, North and Ferretti Draws continue... They actually allow Club Solar, SG and FCD to control their destiny.  

Please bear with me while I speculate:

#1:  Matches against Elite, Sting P and Hopkins are not automatic "L"
Both FCD and SG's past has proven both teams have "help from above" available as well. Both teams matches against Solar and Sting P are not automatic "L's"... Even with all of its its roster help, Solar Chelsea's 1-0 score over Garrett and Andro, does not imply that either match was a dominate, preordained victory.

#2: Next Spring, evertything CHANGES:
Next Spring, the ECNL & HS schedules could very well make some of these Sting and Solar teams play with their original or "less helped" rosters. No disrespect to any players, and contrary to popular belief, not all ecnl played are difference makers.  For example, per post match reports, the Solars (Elite & Chelsea), in their 2 matches against Andro, 4 of the 5 of the goals came directly from 2 ECNL helpers, the other score was the result of an assist.  

Although I am simplifying the matches, I think most would agree 'finishing' is somewhat important.   The information implies that should those 2 players not be available, the Solars matches against SG & FCD are not guaranteed victories...

#3: Ultimate Irony: A Lack of CPP may hurt Club Sting
Lastly, next Spring, if both solar teams D1 byes are assured, Club Solar may not see the need to risk their high end players against FCD & SG, which might have the effect of sending Club Sting's D1's bubble teams to the playoffs.    

Chelsea lost to Garrett 1-0......now if you are referring to Garrett's 1-0 loss to Gold......well that was an off-side goal

Everyone at Shawshank is innocent...
I don't remember that goal particularly, but I am sure I didn't agree with every call either...Good luck to you guys! Y'all seem to have found a decent groove...

Just poking you a little D.of 3
 (although she was clearly off-side)

Seven wrote:Just poking you a little D.of 3
 (although she was clearly off-side)

I hear you. No hurt feelings. I truly don't remember the play. I have no doubt in the acumen of our esteemed referees...so I am sure there wasn't any mistake...lol.

dadof3 wrote:

Seven wrote:Just poking you a little D.of 3
 (although she was clearly off-side)

I hear you. No hurt feelings. I truly don't remember the play. I have no doubt in the acumen of our esteemed referees...so I am sure there wasn't any mistake...lol.

I am pretty sure she was an ECPPNL U.S. National team player too.

We have dual rostered 4 of them and CPP 3 more weekly...but they aren't difference makers...

I've been wondering for the last 2 years why all the Coaches are soooooo stupid. They keep dual rostering & CPPing players that don't make a difference. I mean....if you're gonna bench your dues paying customers at least bring in a ringer.

Oh wait.....my bad......they're doing it for development.