'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 02-28-12

Ok, please explain the math behind #2 and #5 when #5 just beat #2. Seems like head to head in a new season would hold more weight. Also #6 seems to be beating all the top teams recently but sit at #6

I guess if I'm going to look at the rankings (feels like watching an accident scene. You know it's not right but can't help it) I'd like to understand a bit more.

db10 wrote:Ok, please explain the math behind #2 and #5 when #5 just beat #2. Seems like head to head in a new season would hold more weight. Also #6 seems to be beating all the top teams recently but sit at #6

I guess if I'm going to look at the rankings (feels like watching an accident scene. You know it's not right but can't help it) I'd like to understand a bit more.

I'm trying to figure out how #12 is holding in top 15 and why 5 is not top 3??

If number 40 beats number 20, it doesn't mean they switch places. That one goes on the human rankings. This is an average over time and will always be a bit slow to recognize variations until the pattern is enforced as such.

Basically, if #6 keeps "beating all the top teams", they will move up sure enough...it just takes a bit of time. Consistency is king in these rankings.

It looks like these rankings are based on a rolling 4 month window. Every game a team plays, and every game a team's opponents' play, factor into these rankings.

They have turned out to be VERY accurate in predicting select age results.

Understood, but even in college basketball there are more volatile changes. #10 may not jump to #2 if they beat a top 3 opponent, but #2 will drop after a loss.

You guys got caught sleeping on Scott.

db10 wrote:Understood, but even in college basketball there are more volatile changes. #10 may not jump to #2 if they beat a top 3 opponent, but #2 will drop after a loss.

Yes...those are more human rankings...kinda like the BCS rankings for football. They have the AP sportswriter's poll, the Harris poll, the Coaches's poll, and finally the computer model. So, in effect it is more human than computer. That's why you get the immediate changes.

So if you want to do this the same way, we need to combine the human poll and a coaches poll with this one to get what you are looking for...this is only one piece of the rankings puzzle that is used for college sports.

db10 wrote:Ok, please explain the math behind #2 and #5 when #5 just beat #2. Seems like head to head in a new season would hold more weight. Also #6 seems to be beating all the top teams recently but sit at #6

I guess if I'm going to look at the rankings (feels like watching an accident scene. You know it's not right but can't help it) I'd like to understand a bit more.

#6 has been doing well but lost last weekend to #4 by a large margin. That's also the 2nd time in the past 4 months they have lost to #4 so not sure why you would move them up much further.

As already said, recently beating an opponent is not going to trade places with them as there are many other games invovled in the caclulation.

No complaints here. There really shouldn't be much change between week to week unless a team just drops off badly.

Is Piper East still Sting?

Oh my. I'd hate to be the one to say. So I'd rather not say. But like I said before something was brewing up in that area.

Now Peter Piper picked peppers but Run rocked rhymes
Humpty Dumpty fell down that's his hard time
Piper

Gophers, do you count a forfiet as a win/loss in your calculations since the game wasn't actually played? Reason I ask, week 2 of TGPL both 3-0 losses by FCD Premier and FCD Predator that week were forfiets because they were playing in the Lake Highlands Spring tourny.

mcik17 wrote:Gophers, do you count a forfiet as a win/loss in your calculations since the game wasn't actually played? Reason I ask, week 2 of TGPL both 3-0 losses by FCD Premier and FCD Predator that week were forfiets because they were playing in the Lake Highlands Spring tourny.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that any forfiet or referee abandonment results in a 3-0 loss to the "offending" team. This works for 3-point and 10-point systems, and I assume it works for BW's rankings as well.

I would think that counts as a 3-0 loss

mcik17 wrote:Gophers, do you count a forfiet as a win/loss in your calculations since the game wasn't actually played? Reason I ask, week 2 of TGPL both 3-0 losses by FCD Premier and FCD Predator that week were forfiets because they were playing in the Lake Highlands Spring tourny.

No. Those forfeits are not added into the database. If I know a game was a forfeit, it does not go into the FBR.

Lets not criticize the rankings too much. Gotta admit he knows a helluva job. Keep it up buddy.

so the the other team also takes the hit. Sounds like some sort of FCD conspiracy to me. I thought BW was supposed to be with Liverpool but his true intentions have just been revealed

LMFAO

bwgophers wrote:

mcik17 wrote:Gophers, do you count a forfiet as a win/loss in your calculations since the game wasn't actually played? Reason I ask, week 2 of TGPL both 3-0 losses by FCD Premier and FCD Predator that week were forfiets because they were playing in the Lake Highlands Spring tourny.

No. Those forfeits are not added into the database. If I know a game was a forfeit, it does not go into the FBR.

I thought that was what I remembered. Well, not sure if this is what you had imputed, but the 2/16 games between FCD Premier vs Fever Red and the FCD Predator vs Odyssey games in TGPL were both forfiets and listed by TGPL as 3-0 scores.

go99 wrote:so the the other team also takes the hit. Sounds like some sort of FCD conspiracy to me. I thought BW was supposed to be with Liverpool but his true intentions have just been revealed

Haha, I just thought I remembered him once saying that forfiets didn't count, but I wasnt sure. Not sure why he does it that way, I guess he only wants games that were actually played to count in his system for a more accurate ranking.

I would liken these rankings to a scaled down version of the FIFA rankings.. Everyone knows the FIFA rankings are shite and full of inaccuracies. The Elo ranking system is a much more truer version, and considered the gold standard for football rankings..

Of course, the ranking of U10 football in itself is the stuff of fantasy land....

Having said that, Bw gophers enjoys taking the time to do these, so that deserves an A for effort..

Folks always gotta have something to say. For the short time I been watchin these rankings, they seem to be pretty accurate.

go99 wrote:You guys got caught sleeping on Scott.

Just a general comment/question - what's to get caught sleeping on? Is it possible that the Scott-Deleon hyphenation may have something to do with the teams success? I really know nothing about them, but just asking the question based on something that seems obvious.

Furthermore, I suspect that when the rubber meets the road in SDL 9v9 it'll probably me more than just City showing up, and understandably so, that is welcomed. The question I have is in that scenario if City beats the "higher" ranked team how does that effect the higher ranked teams ranking? That's where there could be some murkiness in the rankings. Not sure BW can account for all of those details though. All in all, still pretty accurate.