Re: '04 Girls FBR Rankings - 02-28-12

by KnKsDad 03/03/13, 06:16 pm

Istanbul2005 wrote:
Busby Babes wrote:I would liken these rankings to a scaled down version of the FIFA rankings.. Everyone knows the FIFA rankings are shite and full of inaccuracies. The Elo ranking system is a much more truer version, and considered the gold standard for football rankings..

Of course, the ranking of U10 football in itself is the stuff of fantasy land....

Having said that, Bw gophers enjoys taking the time to do these, so that deserves an A for effort..

Interesting and something to talk about if nothing else. If Scotland or Ireland were subject to this sort of calculation, they'd be forever ranked top 10 because they play top European countries and lose. Only flaw I see in these are teams that lose to higher ranked teams are rewarded the A for effort. Also, Brazil wouldn't rank so well because they beat up on their poor soccer neighbors.

poor soccer neighbors like Argentina and that country that Soares comes from..

by Guest 03/03/13, 06:20 pm

KnKsDad wrote:
Istanbul2005 wrote:
Busby Babes wrote:I would liken these rankings to a scaled down version of the FIFA rankings.. Everyone knows the FIFA rankings are shite and full of inaccuracies. The Elo ranking system is a much more truer version, and considered the gold standard for football rankings..

Of course, the ranking of U10 football in itself is the stuff of fantasy land....

Having said that, Bw gophers enjoys taking the time to do these, so that deserves an A for effort..

Interesting and something to talk about if nothing else. If Scotland or Ireland were subject to this sort of calculation, they'd be forever ranked top 10 because they play top European countries and lose. Only flaw I see in these are teams that lose to higher ranked teams are rewarded the A for effort. Also, Brazil wouldn't rank so well because they beat up on their poor soccer neighbors.

poor soccer neighbors like Argentina and that country that Soares comes from..

Brazil are currently ranked 18th

by go99 03/03/13, 06:21 pm

that is also part of the liverpool conspiracy

by Guest 03/03/13, 06:25 pm

Master Bates wrote:
KnKsDad wrote:
Istanbul2005 wrote:
Busby Babes wrote:I would liken these rankings to a scaled down version of the FIFA rankings.. Everyone knows the FIFA rankings are shite and full of inaccuracies. The Elo ranking system is a much more truer version, and considered the gold standard for football rankings..

Of course, the ranking of U10 football in itself is the stuff of fantasy land....

Having said that, Bw gophers enjoys taking the time to do these, so that deserves an A for effort..

Interesting and something to talk about if nothing else. If Scotland or Ireland were subject to this sort of calculation, they'd be forever ranked top 10 because they play top European countries and lose. Only flaw I see in these are teams that lose to higher ranked teams are rewarded the A for effort. Also, Brazil wouldn't rank so well because they beat up on their poor soccer neighbors.

poor soccer neighbors like Argentina and that country that Soares comes from..

Brazil are currently ranked 18th

Yes, I know. Speaking more historically.
They are ranked 18th because they haven't been winning. But in the days of #1 for consecutive years, they would play third world countries and win 5-0 and be on top (pre recalibration of the formula)

Losing to Argentina twice, England, Mexico, and a draw to Colombia should put Brazil in the top 8!

South Africa lost to Brazil 1-0, that'd put them in the top 20 in the FBR..
Don't get me wrong, I'm like the majority of the hundreds of viewers and enjoy the latest release of FBR, but, win 2 out of 10 games in SDL2 and you've got yourself a place in the Top 30 on this page!

by KnKsDad 03/03/13, 08:53 pm

go99 wrote:
KnKsDad wrote:
go99 wrote:You guys got caught sleeping on Scott.

Just a general comment/question - what's to get caught sleeping on? Is it possible that the Scott-Deleon hyphenation may have something to do with the teams success? I really know nothing about them, but just asking the question based on something that seems obvious.

Furthermore, I suspect that when the rubber meets the road in SDL 9v9 it'll probably me more than just City showing up, and understandably so, that is welcomed. The question I have is in that scenario if City beats the "higher" ranked team how does that effect the higher ranked teams ranking? That's where there could be some murkiness in the rankings. Not sure BW can account for all of those details though. All in all, still pretty accurate.

Nope nothing at all to do with the deleone hyphenation. Was always one of the most talented, athletic groups in the 04's then they got the coaching and its starting to pay off. Don't know anything about that city nonsense

No doubt probably an excellent team. If the hyphenation is not a factor then why is it there? Obviously there was some value added, which is just fine. It's okay to admit that players were added from another team to make a good team better. With respect to the characterization of "City nonsense", just look at the SDL schedule and you'll see them there. They relate to that team that possibly people got caught falling asleep on.

by go99 03/03/13, 09:00 pm

Nope deleone has nothing to do with the top scott group

by GinkoBiloba11 03/03/13, 09:01 pm

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but Scott the highly ranked team is totally separate from Scott/Deleon city and Scott/Deleon city2? 3 totally different teams. Notice Deleon's name is not on the Scott highly ranked teams sdl schedule . Don't get them confused.

by Guest 03/03/13, 09:08 pm

I heard that DT Scott only just scraped by a Sting team ranked outside the top 20 by 2-1 today Shocked

Heard the 2 goals were PKs too. Can anyone confirm??

by go99 03/03/13, 09:08 pm

this team has been up and coming for awhile. Saw some nice ball movement today and it looks like its coming together

by go99 03/03/13, 09:10 pm

SoftballDad wrote:I heard that DT Scott only just scraped by a Sting team ranked outside the top 20 by 2-1 today
Heard the 2 goals were PKs too. Can anyone confirm??

yep. Didn't see the whole game but the part I did see was mostly traffic going in Scott's favor

by KnKsDad 03/03/13, 09:18 pm

GinkoBiloba11 wrote:Someone correct me if I'm wrong but Scott the highly ranked team is totally separate from Scott/Deleon city and Scott/Deleon city2? 3 totally different teams. Notice Deleon's name is not on the Scott highly ranked teams sdl schedule . Don't get them confused.

I assume you're referring to the Platinum schedule, because Deleon's name is on the teams 9v9 schedule. If I understand correctly then, when City I shows up there will be no top Scott highly ranked team players showing up, being that they are 3 distinct teams as you say?

by FieldofDreams 03/03/13, 09:32 pm

SoftballDad wrote:I heard that DT Scott only just scraped by a Sting team ranked outside the top 20 by 2-1 today
Heard the 2 goals were PKs too. Can anyone confirm??

Correct, all 3 goals by both teams were PKs. And, although the score was just 2-1, is was not indicative of how DT actually played and controlled the entire game.

by rattler99 03/03/13, 09:33 pm

Any score for Armstrong/Dalglish?

by M R Balls 03/03/13, 10:08 pm

rattler99 wrote:Any score for Armstrong/Dalglish?

Dalglish 5
Armstrong0

by Guest 04/03/13, 12:01 am

Busby Babes wrote:I would liken these rankings to a scaled down version of the FIFA rankings.. Everyone knows the FIFA rankings are shite and full of inaccuracies. The Elo ranking system is a much more truer version, and considered the gold standard for football rankings..

Istanbul2005 wrote:
Yes, I know. Speaking more historically.
They are ranked 18th because they haven't been winning. But in the days of #1 for consecutive years, they would play third world countries and win 5-0 and be on top (pre recalibration of the formula)

Losing to Argentina twice, England, Mexico, and a draw to Colombia should put Brazil in the top 8!

South Africa lost to Brazil 1-0, that'd put them in the top 20 in the FBR..
Don't get me wrong, I'm like the majority of the hundreds of viewers and enjoy the latest release of FBR, but, win 2 out of 10 games in SDL2 and you've got yourself a place in the Top 30 on this page!

O.K. Let me make sure I've got this straight...

I've got one "expert" (Busby Babes), telling me that FBR is shite** because it's like FIFA rankings, where Brazil is ranked 18th, and I should use an ELo method, where Brazil is ranked 3rd...

I've got another "expert" (Istanbul2005), telling me that FBR is shite** because FBR would have Brazil ranked in the top 8, which means that FBR is actually designed to be much closer to ELo, than to FIFA...

Of course, the real reason is that I've looked at all 3 formulae and determined that FBR is shite** because it's nothing like either of these two ranking systems...

'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 02-28-12 - Page 3 Shite10

'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 02-28-12 - Page 3 Shite10

by Guest 04/03/13, 08:36 am

Wasn't it obvious!? cheers

by Guest 04/03/13, 10:26 am

Obviously no ranking system is going to be perfect and there are obviously some imperfections with the FBR rankings, but I find the overall accuracy of the FBR rankings to be outstanding. I guess it depends on what you are looking for in these rankings and what degree of accuracy you expect, but I think the recent results in LHQT and subsequent performance in LHGCL legitimize the rankings. I know bwgophers would not brag, but this was something I was asking about back in Dec regarding the rankings. Again this was back from December so things may have moved around a bit from then, but I found this interesting.

For the '01's, here is the "original" BCS ranking that I published back in Oct. 2010 (Fall of U10 for the '01's)...

1) Solar Red Bates - Currently 1st place in LHGCL U12 D1
2) FC Dallas Grubb - Currently 3rd place in LHGCL U12 D1
3) Rowdies May - Now Dallas Texans, Currently 6th place in LHGCL U12 D1
4) Sting Flanagan - Currently 2nd place in LHGCL U12 D1
5) Kicks Gold Martinez - Now Kicks SC, Currently 4th place in LHGCL U12 D1
6) TFC Guzman - Currrently in 5th place in LHGCL U12 D1
7) D'Feeters - Currently in 8th place in LHGCL U12 D1
8 ) Solar Montemayor - Currently in 9th place in LHGCL U12 D1
9) Solar Blue Hollis - Now Dallas Texans Red North, Currently in 10th place in LHGCL U12 D1
10) Solar Red Murin - No longer exists, imploded after U10 Fall Season

For the '02's, I took a hiatus from publishing FBR in the Fall of 2011. Here is my top ten from my initial Spring U10 ranking from Feb. 3, 2012:

1) SRSA Colvin - Currently in 7th place in LHGCL U11 D1
2) FC Dallas Premier - Currently in 1st place in LHGCL U11 D1
3) Dallas Texans South - Currently in 4th place in LHGCL U11 D1
4) Dallas Texans - Currently in 2nd place in LHGCL U11 D1
5) Solar Dynamo - Currently in 3rd place in LHGCL U11 D1
6) Waco Lady Blast - Currently in 15th place in LHGCL U11 D1
7) Solar Chelsea Gio - Currently in 6th place in LHGCL U11 D1
8 ) Polaris - Now FC Dallas South Red, Currently in 9th place in LHGCL U11 D1
9) FC Dallas Renfro - Now FC Dallas Blue, Currently in 12th place in LHGCL U11 D1
10) Fever United Red - Currently in 8th place in LHGCL U11 D1

by Guest 04/03/13, 11:00 am

I think the top 10 to 15 are very accurate, like the example you provided in the older group.
It's the 20-40 range where the flaws are glaring. Can't stop teams borrowing to do their best to keep it competitive v the top tier, or top teams taking it easy on these teams by playing their bench, being respectful, etc. Teams that have won just 2 out of 10 (2-6-2), or have played just 3 games (and winning one of them) shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. Perhaps a minimum # of wins or the minimum # of games played should be altered.

by soccrnut 04/03/13, 11:45 am

Istanbul2005 wrote:I think the top 10 to 15 are very accurate, like the example you provided in the older group.
It's the 20-40 range where the flaws are glaring. Can't stop teams borrowing to do their best to keep it competitive v the top tier, or top teams taking it easy on these teams by playing their bench, being respectful, etc. Teams that have won just 2 out of 10 (2-6-2), or have played just 3 games (and winning one of them) shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. Perhaps a minimum # of wins or the minimum # of games played should be altered.

and you can't keep teams from recruiting or parents having their players on 2 teams...just sayin'....lol

by Guest 04/03/13, 11:54 am

Istanbul2005 wrote:I think the top 10 to 15 are very accurate, like the example you provided in the older group.
It's the 20-40 range where the flaws are glaring. Can't stop teams borrowing to do their best to keep it competitive v the top tier, or top teams taking it easy on these teams by playing their bench, being respectful, etc. Teams that have won just 2 out of 10 (2-6-2), or have played just 3 games (and winning one of them) shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. Perhaps a minimum # of wins or the minimum # of games played should be altered.

While I am not going to agree that FBR has "glaring flaws" in the 20-40 range, I will agree that the rankings definitely get "noisier" once you get outside the top 25-30.

I will also say that ANY ranking system... FBR, Human Polls, Power Rankings, ELo, FIFA, etc. will all struggle with the same issues that are mentioned above (guest players, mismatches/blowouts, large disparity in total # of games played, how to handle relative strength of teams playing in different leagues/divisions, etc.) It's the nature of the game when you are trying to do something as absurd as ranking 8-10 year old girls academy soccer teams in NTX.

If the ranking methodology is based on some kind of consistent, valid, mathematical formula, or, in the case of human polls, there is enough averaging involved to dampen out individual subjectivity, my experience is that all of these methods provide roughly equivalent levels of overall accuracy.

by Guest 04/03/13, 12:09 pm

bwgophers wrote:
Istanbul2005 wrote:I think the top 10 to 15 are very accurate, like the example you provided in the older group.
It's the 20-40 range where the flaws are glaring. Can't stop teams borrowing to do their best to keep it competitive v the top tier, or top teams taking it easy on these teams by playing their bench, being respectful, etc. Teams that have won just 2 out of 10 (2-6-2), or have played just 3 games (and winning one of them) shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. Perhaps a minimum # of wins or the minimum # of games played should be altered.

While I am not going to agree that FBR has "glaring flaws" in the 20-40 range, I will agree that the rankings definitely get "noisier" once you get outside the top 25-30.

I will also say that ANY ranking system... FBR, Human Polls, Power Rankings, ELo, FIFA, etc. will all struggle with the same issues that are mentioned above (guest players, mismatches/blowouts, large disparity in total # of games played, how to handle relative strength of teams playing in different leagues/divisions, etc.) It's the nature of the game when you are trying to do something as absurd as ranking 8-10 year old girls academy soccer teams in NTX.

If the ranking methodology is based on some kind of consistent, valid, mathematical formula, or, in the case of human polls, there is enough averaging involved to dampen out individual subjectivity, my experience is that all of these methods provide roughly equivalent levels of overall accuracy.

by Guest 04/03/13, 12:30 pm

bwgophers wrote:
Istanbul2005 wrote:I think the top 10 to 15 are very accurate, like the example you provided in the older group.
It's the 20-40 range where the flaws are glaring. Can't stop teams borrowing to do their best to keep it competitive v the top tier, or top teams taking it easy on these teams by playing their bench, being respectful, etc. Teams that have won just 2 out of 10 (2-6-2), or have played just 3 games (and winning one of them) shouldn't be ranked as high as they are. Perhaps a minimum # of wins or the minimum # of games played should be altered.

While I am not going to agree that FBR has "glaring flaws" in the 20-40 range, I will agree that the rankings definitely get "noisier" once you get outside the top 25-30.

I will also say that ANY ranking system... FBR, Human Polls, Power Rankings, ELo, FIFA, etc. will all struggle with the same issues that are mentioned above (guest players, mismatches/blowouts, large disparity in total # of games played, how to handle relative strength of teams playing in different leagues/divisions, etc.) It's the nature of the game when you are trying to do something as absurd as ranking 8-10 year old girls academy soccer teams in NTX.

If the ranking methodology is based on some kind of consistent, valid, mathematical formula, or, in the case of human polls, there is enough averaging involved to dampen out individual subjectivity, my experience is that all of these methods provide roughly equivalent levels of overall accuracy.

Well said.

by Guest 04/03/13, 01:48 pm

So out of curiosity while eating lunch at my desk today- I went out and looked at the final 02 FBR rankings before LHGCL QTs and compared that with the current league/division of the teams standing as of today. Obviously there is still a lot of soccer to be played this Spring so this will change. When I came up with my variance column I assumed that LH D1 comprises the top 20 teams, LH D3 comprises the next 10 teams and PPL & AP D1 comprises the next 10 teams (no real way to determine the rankings combined so I assumed AP 1st place team is 31 and PPL D1 team is also 31 when doing variances). I also could not find a couple of teams and did not look outside those 3 leagues/divisions. Obviously this is not accurate given some of the top LH D3 teams may have beaten some LH D1 teams in recent tournaments and I assume some top PPL/AP teams have beaten LH teams, but I had to make some assumption. Unless I made a mistake (which is very possible given how fast I did this)- I found the average FBR placement variance to be 2.3 for the top 10 teams, 3.5 for FBR teams ranked 11-20 and 5.5 for FBR teams ranked 21-30 and 5.1 for FBR teams ranked 31-40. Obviously too much time on my hands for lunch and this is not a bid to take over FBR when bwgophers moves on- I am not that crazy.

FBR Current League Current
Rankings Team Division Variance Variance
1 FC Dallas Premier LH d1 1 0
2 Solar Chelsea Red LH d1 5 -3
3 Dallas Texans South LH d1 4 -1
4 Dallas Texans LH d1 2 -2
5 Solar Dynamo LH d1 3 -2
6 FC Dallas Blue LH d1 13 -7
7 Solar Gio LH d1 6 -1
8 Fever United Red LH d1 11 -3
9 D'Feeters LH d1 8 -1
10 Andromeda FC Red LH d1 9 -1
11 FC Dallas South Red LH d1 10 -1
12 Waco Blast LH d1 14 -2
13 Sting Rezaie LH d1 7 -6
14 Saints LH d3 1 -7
15 Dynasty SC LH d1 15 0
16 Sting East Dunstan LH d1 12 -4
17 Andromeda LH d3 2 -4
18 LP Thomson LH d1 20 -2
19 Sting Central Parker LH d1 16 -3
20 FC Dallas East Red LH d3 6 -6
21 TFC 02 LH d1 18 -3
22 Solar Stark PPL d1 1 -9
23 Liverpool Keegan PPL d1 4 -11
24 Celtic LH d3 3 -1
25 Mustangs FC LH d3 4 -1
26 Dallas Kicks ? ? ?
27 Cosmos Black LH d1 17 -10
28 FC Premier LH d1 19 -9
29 Liverpool Dalglish LH d3 5 -4
30 Odyssey White PPL d1 2 -2
31 Dallas Texans Red LH d3 7 -4
32 Polaris LH d3 8 -4
33 Liverpool Rush AP d1 7 -4
34 Texas Thunder PPL D1 13 -9
35 LP Hansen LH d3 9 -5
36 Fort Worth FC AP d1 1 -5
37 Lady Titans ? ? ?
38 FC Dallas West LH d3 10 -8
39 Solar Chelsea Gold PPL D1 11 -2
40 TFC Deering PPL D1 5 -5

by yea..yea..whatever 04/03/13, 02:26 pm

bigtex wrote: I found the average FBR placement variance to be 2.3 for the top 10 teams, 3.5 for FBR teams ranked 11-20 and 5.5 for FBR teams ranked 21-30 and 5.1 for FBR teams ranked 31-40. Obviously too much time on my hands for lunch and this is not a bid to take over FBR when bwgophers moves on- I am not that crazy.

So a variance of 5.3 for spots 20-40 vs 2.9 variance for top 20. That qualifies as a bit 'noisier'. Still pretty darn good for a bunch of 10/11 year olds.

by Sweet_feet99 04/03/13, 02:38 pm

It's better than the alternative, not having a ranking at all.

by Shelby427 04/03/13, 03:18 pm

Are people really nitpicking the 20-40s????

Why does anyone even respond to that. LOL...

FBR is as close to perfect as you will get for little kid soccer... Not perfect but as close to it as you will get. This is well established...

Can someone create an FBR FAQ and make it a sticky so we can just post links to it when newbs get on here and ask questions like "Why is number 47 not ranked about number 43 when they just beat number 36 by 2 goals and lost last week to number 27 by only 1 goal in PKs?"

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