'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 05-01-13

bwgophers wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:bwgophers wrote:
canaryman wrote:
BW, where does Tier 2 start and stop?



"The ranking tiers do not line up exactly with the rankings. However, the general breakdown of the tiers for the '04's is currently:

Tier 1: RASE and DT South (only unbeaten, un-tied teams)
Tier 2: Remainder of top 10, except TSNR
Tier 3: TSNR + majority of teams between 11-30
Tier 4: Majority of teams between 31-50
Tier 5: Majority of teams between 51-85
Tier 6: Majority of teams between 86-95


Out of curiosity, please explain your specific logic on TSNR?"

The above was from last weeks thread. I'm still curious.

Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

KnKsDad wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:bwgophers wrote:
canaryman wrote:
BW, where does Tier 2 start and stop?



"The ranking tiers do not line up exactly with the rankings. However, the general breakdown of the tiers for the '04's is currently:

Tier 1: RASE and DT South (only unbeaten, un-tied teams)
Tier 2: Remainder of top 10, except TSNR
Tier 3: TSNR + majority of teams between 11-30
Tier 4: Majority of teams between 31-50
Tier 5: Majority of teams between 51-85
Tier 6: Majority of teams between 86-95


Out of curiosity, please explain your specific logic on TSNR?"

The above was from last weeks thread. I'm still curious.

Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

Thanks for the explanation. This may be a dumb question, but are there presently any teams that are ranked 11-30 that are considered Tier 2?

soccerdad1969 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

KnK, what 2 teams outside the top 10 has Spirit North lost to this year?

KnKsDad wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

KnK, what 2 teams outside the top 10 has Spirit North lost to this year?

Outside the top 10 based on ranking we only lost to one, GSSC Thunder, but IMO they are a top 10 team. The other team we lost to was Piper 1-0 in a preseason tournament who is currently, and was then I believe, a top 10 team ranking-wise. Based on BW's Tier breakdown and explanation above however, these same two losses are considered to be against Tier 3 teams.

bwgophers wrote:

10sDad wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

10sDad wrote:BW - I have a question....

Since "tournament teams" can be vastly different from "league teams", is there any consideration given to that scenario? Is there a seperate ranking table for a "frozen" roster?

We have all seen a lower-level big club team get better than expected results in a tournament simply because the top-level team(s) in that club happen to be off that particular weekend - resulting in guest players that will never play for that team in a frozen roster situation such as a league or qualifying tournament...so I think that tends to skew the rankings a bit when tournaments are included...but it would be a real bugger to try to account for that..

Nope. Guest playing and roster movement is a fact of life in NTX academy. It's there in league play just as is in tourney play. No way to account for it in a mathematical formula like FBR, and I won't even try. My experience is that over the long haul, it pretty much balances itself out one way or another.

So I guess the safe assumption would be that a lower ranked "big-club" team is inherently over-ranked when tournaments are taken into account. Therefore, applying this logic means:

- if you are playing a particular "shirt" in a TOURNAMENT, be ready for them to be better than their ranking suggests...especially if their higher ranked team(s) are off that weekend.

and....

- if you are playing a particular "shirt" in a LEAGUE or next year's QT, don't assume that if they are significantly higher ranked than your team, that its an enormous, gigantic upset if you beat them.

True?

There will probably be many people out there who disagree with me on this, but my answer to your question is a big, fat, FALSE.

IMO, guest players have less of an impact than most people want to believe. Can they help? Sure. How often are they complete game changers that drastically alter the final outcome of a game? Again, IMO, not very often. I think they are a convenient excuse used by people to justify why their DD's team didn't get the outcome they were expecting/hoping for in a game.

soccerdad1969 wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

KnK, what 2 teams outside the top 10 has Spirit North lost to this year?

Outside the top 10 based on ranking we only lost to one, GSSC Thunder, but IMO they are a top 10 team. The other team we lost to was Piper 1-0 in a preseason tournament who is currently, and was then I believe, a top 10 team ranking-wise. Based on BW's Tier breakdown and explanation above however, these same two losses are considered to be against Tier 3 teams.

We tied GSSC and would have tied Piper had it not been for a missed PK. Just goes to show about matchups after our 0-4 loss to you..

I see you are entered in the Legends tourney. It's starting to get an SDL 1 feel with you, Piper, and us being entered.

soccerdad1969 wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
Prior to 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 0-2 (0%). They did not belong in Tier 2 based on that fact.

After 4/23, TSNR's record against teams in Tier 2 was 1-2 (33%). At this point, I look at their record against Tier 3 teams, which was 4-1 (80%). Becomes a bit of a judgement call at this point. In these cases, I look at what assigning the team to each Tier does to the overall record of 1 Tier vs. another. In this case, I decided that the overall better case scenario was for TSNR to be in Tier 3.

As of 4/30, Piper has been relegated to Tier 3, based on the loss to TSNR on 4/20 and their loss this past weekend to SRFC. With that change, TSNR's record against Tier 2 is now 0-1 (0%) and against Tier 3 is 5-2 (71%). Turns out my decision to keep TSNR in Tier 3 after 4/23 was the correct one in this case.

KnK, what 2 teams outside the top 10 has Spirit North lost to this year?

Outside the top 10 based on ranking we only lost to one, GSSC Thunder, but IMO they are a top 10 team. The other team we lost to was Piper 1-0 in a preseason tournament who is currently, and was then I believe, a top 10 team ranking-wise. Based on BW's Tier breakdown and explanation above however, these same two losses are considered to be against Tier 3 teams.

We tied GSSC and would have tied Piper had it not been for a missed PK. Just goes to show about matchups after our 0-4 loss to you..

I see you are entered in the Legends tourney. It's starting to get an SDL 1 feel with you, Piper, and us being entered.

10sDad wrote:BW - I have a question....

Since "tournament teams" can be vastly different from "league teams", is there any consideration given to that scenario? Is there a seperate ranking table for a "frozen" roster?

We have all seen a lower-level big club team get better than expected results in a tournament simply because the top-level team(s) in that club happen to be off that particular weekend - resulting in guest players that will never play for that team in a frozen roster situation such as a league or qualifying tournament...so I think that tends to skew the rankings a bit when tournaments are included...but it would be a real bugger to try to account for that..

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

10sDad wrote:BW - I have a question....

Since "tournament teams" can be vastly different from "league teams", is there any consideration given to that scenario? Is there a seperate ranking table for a "frozen" roster?

We have all seen a lower-level big club team get better than expected results in a tournament simply because the top-level team(s) in that club happen to be off that particular weekend - resulting in guest players that will never play for that team in a frozen roster situation such as a league or qualifying tournament...so I think that tends to skew the rankings a bit when tournaments are included...but it would be a real bugger to try to account for that..

I find the rankings very insightful and usually pretty accurate relative to competitive expectations. Beyond that, I do think some folks get a little caught up in where there team is and where they should be - we are talking 8-9 year old girls soccer Only in America!

Here's to a fun summer of developmental soccer for the 04 girls!

soccerdad1969 wrote:

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

10sDad wrote:BW - I have a question....

Since "tournament teams" can be vastly different from "league teams", is there any consideration given to that scenario? Is there a seperate ranking table for a "frozen" roster?

We have all seen a lower-level big club team get better than expected results in a tournament simply because the top-level team(s) in that club happen to be off that particular weekend - resulting in guest players that will never play for that team in a frozen roster situation such as a league or qualifying tournament...so I think that tends to skew the rankings a bit when tournaments are included...but it would be a real bugger to try to account for that..

I find the rankings very insightful and usually pretty accurate relative to competitive expectations. Beyond that, I do think some folks get a little caught up in where there team is and where they should be - we are talking 8-9 year old girls soccer Only in America!

Here's to a fun summer of developmental soccer for the 04 girls!

Agreed on getting caught up in it..it's easy to do. I do think, however, that the rankings do present one metric to how a team is progressing compared to other teams. I think it is erroneous to use the FBR systtem (W-L, SOS, and MOV I assume are the driving factors to the rankings) as the only way to measure development, but it is one of the only quantified ways to measure against other teams I am aware of.

Keepersdad wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

10sDad wrote:BW - I have a question....

Since "tournament teams" can be vastly different from "league teams", is there any consideration given to that scenario? Is there a seperate ranking table for a "frozen" roster?

We have all seen a lower-level big club team get better than expected results in a tournament simply because the top-level team(s) in that club happen to be off that particular weekend - resulting in guest players that will never play for that team in a frozen roster situation such as a league or qualifying tournament...so I think that tends to skew the rankings a bit when tournaments are included...but it would be a real bugger to try to account for that..

I find the rankings very insightful and usually pretty accurate relative to competitive expectations. Beyond that, I do think some folks get a little caught up in where there team is and where they should be - we are talking 8-9 year old girls soccer Only in America!

Here's to a fun summer of developmental soccer for the 04 girls!

Agreed on getting caught up in it..it's easy to do. I do think, however, that the rankings do present one metric to how a team is progressing compared to other teams. I think it is erroneous to use the FBR systtem (W-L, SOS, and MOV I assume are the driving factors to the rankings) as the only way to measure development, but it is one of the only quantified ways to measure against other teams I am aware of.

Couldn't agree more. It doesn't matter where you rank but rather how you've progressed. As a matter of fact, I think the fact that the points are weighted whan you player tougher competition lends itself to the measurement of that progression.