'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 04-08-14

In the top ten one minute, out the next!

No luv Sheets!

No luv is right. Wasn't in long enough to sniff it.

Looks like a tie for 10th. Same amount of points. No big deal, there's always next week.

#8-#14 very close on points.

Too close for comfort.

this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

Just curious...how much influence does your FBR have on LH when they sit down to seed for the QT?

I think BWG will tell you officially none. Unofficially, I think it factors in a good deal as the latest polls and the QT seeding are too similar to ignore.

canaryman wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

Just curious...how much influence does your FBR have on LH when they sit down to seed for the QT?

From my experience... minimal.

There will be general agreement, simply because the better teams are generally the better teams, and the weaker teams are generally the weaker teams. However, every year from '01-'03, there have been between 5-8 teams where QT seed has differed from final FBR rank by >9 spots (which is pretty significant considering there are typically between 42-52 teams playing in QT).

bwgophers wrote:

canaryman wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

Just curious...how much influence does your FBR have on LH when they sit down to seed for the QT?

From my experience... minimal.  

There will be general agreement, simply because the better teams are generally the better teams, and the weaker teams are generally the weaker teams.  However, every year from '01-'03, there have been between 5-8 teams where QT seed has differed from final FBR rank by >9 spots (which is pretty significant considering there are typically between 42-52 teams playing in QT).

Have these discrepancies been mostly in the top 20, >20, or all across the spectrum?

This year ought to be a wild one...with Pulp starting up and getting some players and with the Sting/Goodman split and both teams looking for players, there is bound to be some movement. If Pulp, Goodman, and Diaz all get good talent to fill their rosters to top D1 quality as expected, there will be a cascading effect that will affect the whole balance of the time/space continuum - no one will be safe!   

10sDad wrote:This year ought to be a wild one...with Pulp starting up and getting some players and with the Sting/Goodman split and both teams looking for players, there is bound to be some movement.  If Pulp, Goodman, and Diaz all get good talent to fill their rosters to top D1 quality as expected, there will be a cascading effect that will affect the whole balance of the time/space continuum - no one will be safe!    

You forgot about "Johnny Soccer" (TM - TradeMark).

soccerdad1969 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

canaryman wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

Just curious...how much influence does your FBR have on LH when they sit down to seed for the QT?

From my experience... minimal.  

There will be general agreement, simply because the better teams are generally the better teams, and the weaker teams are generally the weaker teams.  However, every year from '01-'03, there have been between 5-8 teams where QT seed has differed from final FBR rank by >9 spots (which is pretty significant considering there are typically between 42-52 teams playing in QT).

Have these discrepancies been mostly in the top 20, >20, or all across the spectrum?

Never anything that big in the top 14, but there have been discrepancies as large as 5-7 spots in the top 14.

Every year from '01-'03, there has been at least 1 team seeded between 15-20 that was seeded >10 spots higher than their final FBR ranking.

Every year from '01-'03, there has been at least 1 team in the top 20 of the final FBR that has been seeded >7 spots lower than their final FBR ranking.

From 15 down to the bottom of the seeding, there is pretty much an equal chance of there being a large discrepancy between QT seed and final FBR Rank.

By the way, the data from '01-'03 QT says that ~85% of the time, seeding doesn't matter.  In the cases where there have been large discrepancies between QT seed and FBR rank, the split is very close to 50/50 on whether the team qualified in line with their QT seeding vs. in-line with their FBR rank.

How many of those teams ranked higher or lower than FBR ranking vs. QT seeding were considerably wrong?  When LH League played started, people scratched their head like how they manage to get in again??

Im sure it about match up and some teams manage to slip by and get into DI and just to realize, what are we doing here.

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

That brings up an interesting point for teams not fortunate to be in the top 15. Would you prefer to be cannon fodder and lose just about every weeked and drop to D3 (last two teams) or be in D3 and win the majority and jump to D2 the second season? Losing a lot can take a toll on a team and its ability to stay together.

Soccapeeps wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

blackcleatsoccerfan wrote:this is going to make for a great summer of qualifying!

Unless there is significant roster movement on some of these teams between now and QT (which is always possible), teams 8-14 will have no problems qualifying for the D1 Supergroup at U11.  Depending on the vagaries of QT seeding, there will likely be some interesting and highly competitive matchups that will determine who gets in after week 1, and who has to go on to week 2.  However, I would expect all of those teams to qualify for D1 without breaking too much of a sweat.

More interesting will be the competition for the last 5-6 slots in the D1 Supergroup at U11.  After #14, there's a bit of a gap right now, to another tightly bunched group of teams from #15-21/22ish.  That's where the interesting battles will come in to determine which teams get to be cannon fodder at the bottom of D1 at U11, vs which teams get to spend U11 in D3, likely piling up a bunch of W's.

That brings up an interesting point for teams not fortunate to be in the top 15. Would you prefer to be cannon fodder and lose just about every weeked and drop to D3 (last two teams) or be in D3 and win the majority and jump to D2 the second season? Losing a lot can take a toll on a team and its ability to stay together.

Great point

I'd like to keep my dd with tougher competition. I wouldn't want to see her notching easy wins and not getting pushed to play harder.

Dang work! I was gonna ask that. I would think that I would rather play the bottom 10 in D1 then play D3 all year. And really, other then RASE. There wouldn't be any runaway games.

Sweet_feet99 wrote:I'd like to keep my dd with tougher competition. I wouldn't want to see her notching easy wins and not getting pushed to play harder.

That's right it's the only way they will maximize potential. It's why teams like SRSA and RASE play up.

It's a catch 22 really. Most of the time (not all the time) the top teams going into qualifying are the top teams for a reason. They are simply better than the rest of the age group. There's generally a small group of teams that fit in that category in the first year, maybe 6 or 7 teams. If you are not one of those teams then year one LH's can be a real beating and end up costing you your team. So do you want to play better competition but get knocked around at this age or would you like to play good competition and be able to compete and win a good portion of your games.

It happens all the time, a team has been together for a couple of years prior to LH's, they are all good friends, and everyone is soooo close that nothing will ever tear them apart. Then that first year of LH's comes around and that group that is all buddy buddy ends up turning on each other when they end up finishing 15th when they were originally seeded 7th. The top couple of girls end up leaving now that they realize that their teammates don't care as much as they do and the parents realize that the coach really hasn't been teaching their DD's much of anything.

Honestly I think it's better to know you are bubble team and make DI with realistic expectations than to be a fringe top team and make DI and end up struggling. Winning DIII looks a ton better than finishing 11-20th in DI when it comes to keeping your team together.

In the 03's of the top 10 seeds, 7 of the 10 have qualified for DI next year. Of the 10 byes for DI next year seeds 1-6 have qualified, then #10, #12, #22, and vying for the final spot are seeds #9 & #13. Basically if you get a top seed during week 1 you have a solid chance of having a good season. In regards to the #22 seed I believe they added an outstanding little player in the second half and if she would have been with them prior to qualifying then I'm sure they would have been seeded much higher than #22. Late season roster changes can make a huge difference.


Just make sure you set realistic expectations.

On the flip side it must be boring for a team like SRSA killing everyone each week. I don't think that they can play up so how'd they push themselves?

Master Bates wrote:On the flip side it must be boring for a team like SRSA killing everyone each week. I don't think that they can play up so how'd they push themselves?

By sending their top two to play in the '02's. Is there a chance RASE will do something like this to make things more challenging for themselves by sending a couple of their top players to '03 Elite?