07 FBR October 8th

The long awaited FBR for the 07 Girls

Current Rankings ONLY include game results from 08/01/2014 through Present Date.

There are no De-factos with 07s.  Only games against 07s will count for rankings.

The rankings have some "NOISE" and will not fully look clear until the end of the Fall Season.  If your team does not appear, then I do not have game results for them.  The team must have at minimum 3 games to appear in the rankings. (Plagurized from Borussia, thx Bo!)

Any team with a '*' by them is known to be made of a compliment of girls from another team that is ranked.  I.E. Kicks and Kicks Blue, LP Gerrard, Owen, Red and RASE and the Sting East teams.

Teams playing in leagues that do not publicly report scores will need to email FBR07G@mail.com to report their scores for consideration.

FBR07G is publishing these rankings and maintaining the data.  The ranking methods, criteria, and formulas are all 100% the same as BWG's rankings in prior age groups.  Tier groups are the only subjective area (generally following BWG guidelines on establishing initial tiers), tier groups will be published AFTER the fall season and tournaments.  BWG has been kind enough to review the early data a couple times, including the initial rankings and share his methodologies to ensure as much an unbiased ranking system as possible for this up and coming age group.

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For the record, Solar Abbott 07 are playing in PT 06 Silver. Solar Abbott 07/08 is comprised of 5 08s, 1 09 and a couple of 07s to help out with subs.

Ok now that FBR07LPG has taken care of the BW role for the 07 group.

The more pressing question is who is going to step up and take on the GO99 role for the 07 group? That is far more important than team rankings this far out from select.

Two quick questions, where are you getting the records from? I am asking because Sting East '07 Hare White is 5-0 and Sting East '07 Harr Royal has only played three games. They have tied 2 and lost 1. They are listed as 3-2-2.

Other question is will you eventually be adding the league and division they are currently playing in? Just curious!

FBR07G wrote:

Any team with a '*' by them is known to be made of a compliment of girls from another team that is ranked.  I.E. Kicks and Kicks Blue, LP Gerrard, Owen, Red and RASE and the Sting East teams.

I like the concept. How do you intend to decide which team gets the asterisk though? The higher ranked team, the lower ranked team, both teams, or case-by-case basis.

Cobra_Kai wrote:

FBR07G wrote:

Any team with a '*' by them is known to be made of a compliment of girls from another team that is ranked.  I.E. Kicks and Kicks Blue, LP Gerrard, Owen, Red and RASE and the Sting East teams.

I like the concept.  How do you intend to decide which team gets the asterisk though?  The higher ranked team, the lower ranked team, both teams, or case-by-case basis.

jeaton: Sting East went 3-1 in Arlington Labor Day Tourney, losing to Comets in Finals. Yes will try to get League info added.

Cobra: I guess personal opinion on what is the 'main' team playing 07s(note: no affect on rankings). Kicks seems to be the main team that plays tourney's, Kicks-Blue the off shoot. LP RASE and RED will get it as Gerrard and Owen seem to be the main teams, (around more, playing 07s and RASE isn't even ranked, so Red seems the obvious choice), and Sting East White also has it, as Sting East is the main team.

This can be open for discussion, but don't want to be switching it based on ranking.

Thanks for the clarification! I forgot tournaments were included. Thanks for all your hard work!!

BW posted the 'secret formula' to the FBR in another thread. It has been posted many times before, but since some don't get around much, I'll post in this thread as well. I can try to answer technical questions, but give me time I may have to get BW to assist. Honestly, the software does the heavy lifting.

Also, as FYI, don't expect weekly rankings. Not enough movement(or need) to take the time to do this. Games are tracked as they happen, but the current plan is to post roughly every two weeks during the season.

Over winter we can dive further in if you all wish, such as tier placements for teams etc. I will also occasionally post the tier vs tier records as BW does, this will let you know the 80/20 rule of BW is being followed with tier placements(see explanation below). The 07s currently use Tiers 1-5. My goal is to be as transparent as BW is.

From BW:

FBR uses 3 primary ranking criteria:

1) Weighted Wins*
2) Average Margin of Victory (MoV)
3) Strength of Schedule (SoS)

*Weighted Wins is split into 2 sub-categories – Average Weighted Wins/Game Played (AWW), and Most Weighted Wins (MWW).

AWW accounts for 40% of the final ranking calculation
MWW accounts for 10% of the final ranking calculation
MoV accounts for 20% of the final ranking calculation
SoS accounts for 30% of the final ranking calculation


Section I: Weighted Wins and Weighted Losses:

Weighted Wins (WW) and Weighted Losses (WL) are used in the AWW, MWW and SoS calculations, and are at the heart of how FBR works.

We establish ranking Tiers in the FBR that give greater weighting to games played against stronger opponents. Placement in the ranking tiers is based solely on actual game performance and is reviewed and adjusted where necessary on a frequent basis. The "general" rule governing tier placement is an "80/20" rule. A team should get a Win or Draw in >80% of their games against teams from a lower ranking tier, a Win or Draw in somewhere between 20-80% of their games against teams within their ranking tier, and a Win or Draw in <20% of their games against teams from a higher ranking tier. The net result is that you should get grouping of teams of relatively similar strength in each tier. A weighting factor is then assigned to each tier. From empirical experience with a full year's worth of data on the '01's at U10, we determined that reducing the weighting factor by 50% in each successive tier works the best overall.

Current weighting factors are:
Tier 1 = 52
Tier 2 = 26
Tier 3 = 13
Tier 4 = 7**
Tier 5 = 3**
Tier 6 = 1**
**(can only assign whole #'s)

A win gets a team (1*Tier weighting factor) Weighted Wins (i.e. 52 WW for a W over a Tier 1 team, 26 WW for a W over a Tier 2 team, etc.) and 0 weighted losses (WL)
A draw gets a team (0.5 * Tier weighting factor) WW and (0.5 * (100-Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 26-24 WW-WL for a Tier 1 draw, 13-37 WW-WL for a Tier 2 draw, etc.)
A loss gets a team 0 WW and (1*(100-(Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 48 WL for a loss to a Tier 1 team, 74 WL for a loss to a Tier 2 team, etc.)

Section II: Average Weighted Wins per Game Played:

The first ranking criterion used is Avg WW. This is simply a team’s total WW (as calculated using the method described above) divided by the total # of games they have played. In other words, what is the average "strength" of their game results any time those girls lace up their cleats.

Section III: Most Weighted Wins

This is simply the total # of Weighted Wins for a team. It is used in the rankings to give credit to teams that step up and play tougher competition on a regular basis AND perform well in those games.

For example, if you have 2 teams that have played roughly equal strength competition, but Team A is 16-0 while Team B is 8-0, Team A should get more credit as they have actually played the games and delivered the results. Team B might go 8-0 over their next 8 games, but the actual probability of that happening is < 100 %.

Section IV: Average Margin of Victory:

Pure and simple... (Total Goals Scored - Total goals allowed)/Total # of Games

Section V: Strength of Schedule:

Uses WW-WL record of a team's opponents AND the opponent's opponents. Weighted 75% for opponent's cumulative WW-WL record, 25% for opponent's opponents cumulative WW-WL record. (You really need the FBR SW's database capability to keep track of all of this).

Section VI: Calculating Final Ranking Points:

The ranking criteria values are calculated for each team as described in sections II-V. For each criterion, the teams are listed and sorted from highest criteria total to lowest. The team with the highest total in a particular criterion is assigned 100 points. The ranking points for all other teams in that criteria are then calculated as a % of the top team’s total.

For example:

Team A has the highest total for Avg. WW = 50 WW/Game.
Team B has Avg. WW = 30 WW/Game

Team A gets 100 Ranking Points in the Avg WW category
Team B gets (30/50)*100 = 60 Ranking points in the Avg. WW category.

The ranking points for each criterion are then multiplied by the corresponding final ranking calculation weight for that criterion, and summed up to get a team's Total Ranking Points.

Again for example, let's say:

Team A = 100 points for Avg. WW, 100 points for Most WW, 90 points for MoV, 75 points for SoS
Team A Total Ranking Points = (100 * 0.4) + (100 * 0.1) + (90 * 0.2) + (75 * 0.3) = (40) + (10) + (18) + (22.5) = 90.5 points

Team B = 60 points for Avg. WW, 80 points for Most WW, 50 points for MoV, 100 points for SoS
Team B Total Ranking Points = (60 * 0.4) + (80 * 0.1) + (50 * 0.2) + (100 * 0.3) = (24) + ( 8 ) + (10) + (30) = 72 points

Teams are then sorted by total ranking points to determine final FBR ranking.