'05 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-15-15

With last week's rankings you stated that you would no longer drop game or keep everything from 2/1/15. If that is true, how can teams loose points in rankings? I can understand dropping due to not gaining points but if your not dropping games shouldn't the points stay the same unless you have played games?

isthis4real wrote:With last week's rankings you stated that you would no longer drop game or keep everything  from 2/1/15. If that is true, how can teams loose points in rankings? I can understand dropping due to not gaining points but if your not dropping games shouldn't the points stay the same unless you have played games?

FBR is a "dynamic" ranking system.  Every game that you add or delete will alter the database and calculated points to some degree.

For everyone's benefit, I will re-post the calculation methodology below (read at your own risk, I can not responsible for any side-effects that may arise).

The primary reason that most team's overall point totals dropped this week is because the #1 team played and had a particularly strong weekend (Beat both the #2 and #5 team).  If after reading the details below, you still have a question about this, probably best to hash it out over PM instead of in the thread (although I will respond publicly if that is what you desire).

FBR uses 3 primary ranking criteria:

1)  Weighted Wins*
2)  Average Margin of Victory (MoV)
3)  Strength of Schedule (SoS)

*Weighted Wins is split into 2 sub-categories – Average Weighted Wins/Game Played (AWW), and Most Weighted Wins (MWW).  

AWW accounts for 40% of the final ranking calculation
MWW accounts for 10% of the final ranking calculation
MoV accounts for 20% of the final ranking calculation
SoS accounts for 30% of the final ranking calculation


Section I:  Weighted Wins and Weighted Losses:

Weighted Wins (WW) and Weighted Losses (WL) are used in the AWW, MWW and SoS calculations, and are at the heart of how FBR works.

We establish ranking Tiers in the FBR that give greater weighting to games played against stronger opponents.  Placement in the ranking tiers is based solely on actual game performance and is reviewed and adjusted where necessary on a frequent basis.  The "general" rule governing tier placement is an "80/20" rule.  A team should get a Win or Draw in >80% of their games against teams from a lower ranking tier, a Win or Draw in somewhere between 20-80% of their games against teams within their ranking tier, and a Win or Draw in <20% of their games against teams from a higher ranking tier.  The net result is that you should get grouping of teams of relatively similar strength in each tier.  A weighting factor is then assigned to each tier.  From empirical experience with a full year's worth of data on the '01's at U10, we determined that reducing the weighting factor by 50% in each successive tier works the best overall.

Current weighting factors are:
Tier 1 = 52
Tier 2 = 26
Tier 3 = 13
Tier 4 = 7**
Tier 5 = 3**
Tier 6 = 1**
**(can only assign whole #'s)

A win gets a team (1*Tier weighting factor) Weighted Wins (i.e. 52 WW for a W over a Tier 1 team, 26 WW for a W over a Tier 2 team, etc.) and 0 weighted losses (WL)
A draw gets a team (0.5 * Tier weighting factor) WW and (0.5 * (100-Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 26-24 WW-WL for a Tier 1 draw, 13-37 WW-WL for a Tier 2 draw, etc.)
A loss gets a team 0 WW and (1*(100-(Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 48 WL for a loss to a Tier 1 team, 74 WL for a loss to a Tier 2 team, etc.)

Section II: Average Weighted Wins per Game Played:

The first ranking criterion used is Avg WW.  This is simply a team’s total WW (as calculated using the method described above) divided by the total # of games they have played.  In other words, what is the average "strength" of their game results any time those girls lace up their cleats.

Section III:  Most Weighted Wins

This is simply the total # of Weighted Wins for a team.  It is used in the rankings to give credit to teams that step up and play tougher competition on a regular basis AND perform well in those games.  

For example, if you have 2 teams that have played roughly equal strength competition, but Team A is 16-0 while Team B is 8-0, Team A should get more credit as they have actually played the games and delivered the results.  Team B might go 8-0 over their next 8 games, but the actual probability of that happening is < 100 %.

Section IV: Average Margin of Victory:

Pure and simple...  (Total Goals Scored - Total goals allowed)/Total # of Games

Section V: Strength of Schedule:

Uses WW-WL record of a team's opponents AND the opponent's opponents.  Weighted 75% for opponent's cumulative WW-WL record, 25% for opponent's opponents cumulative WW-WL record. (You really need the FBR SW's database capability to keep track of all of this).

Section VI:  Calculating Final Ranking Points:

The ranking criteria values are calculated for each team as described in sections II-V.  For each criterion, the teams are listed and sorted from highest criteria total to lowest.  The team with the highest total in a particular criterion is assigned 100 points.  The ranking points for all other teams in that criteria are then calculated as a % of the top team’s total.

For example:

Team A has the highest total for Avg. WW = 50 WW/Game.
Team B has Avg. WW = 30 WW/Game

Team A gets 100 Ranking Points in the Avg WW category
Team B gets (30/50)*100 = 60 Ranking points in the Avg. WW category.

The ranking points for each criterion are then multiplied by the corresponding final ranking calculation weight for that criterion, and summed up to get a team's Total Ranking Points.

Again for example, let's say:

Team A = 100 points for Avg. WW, 100 points for Most WW, 90 points for MoV, 75 points for SoS
Team A Total Ranking Points = (100 * 0.4) + (100 * 0.1) + (90 * 0.2) + (75 * 0.3) = (40) + (10) + (18) + (22.5) = 90.5 points

Team B = 60 points for Avg. WW, 80 points for Most WW, 50 points for MoV, 100 points for SoS
Team B Total Ranking Points = (60 * 0.4) + (80 * 0.1) + (50 * 0.2) + (100 * 0.3) = (24) + (8 ) + (10) + (30) = 72 points

Teams are then sorted by total ranking points to determine final FBR ranking.

SD69 wrote:

You were warned...

A couple clarifying questions:

1. How do Forfeits get factored in? (i.e., do you count it as a regular 3-0 score)?

2. How do Shootouts get factored in? (e.g., what if a game went 0-0 through overtime and then resulted in a 3-0 loss...is it counted the same as a 'regular' 3-0 loss)?

3. What if a team plays a team outside of their age group....still counted in 05 FBR rankings?

nortexmaker wrote:A couple clarifying questions:

1.  How do Forfeits get factored in?  (i.e., do you count it as a regular 3-0 score)?

2.  How do Shootouts get factored in?  (e.g., what if a game went 0-0 through overtime and then resulted in a 3-0 loss...is it counted the same as a 'regular' 3-0 loss)?

3.  What if a team plays a team outside of their age group....still counted in 05 FBR rankings?

To preface the answer to all 3 questions, let me restate my intentions with FBR. I am not trying to crown some kind of mythical "champion" of NTX academy soccer. I am trying to publish a relatively accurate general assessment of the strength of various teams to one another with regards to full sided, outdoor games. With that said...

1) I do not include forfeits in the database. They provide no tangible information for the purpose of FBR. Sometimes a 3-0 result will end up in the database because I was not able to determine that the game was actually a forfeit. Usually, someone involved with one of the teams will PM me to tell me that the result was a forfeit, at which time, I will remove it from the database.

2) Again, based on my stated purpose with FBR, I take the approach of treating all games equally (league, tournament pool, tournament knockout rounds). To that extent, since league and tournament pool games are allowed to end in regulation draws, when it comes to tournament knockout round games, I use the score at the end of regulation time for the FBR calculation. Again, I rely on GotSoccer and/or info that is reported through the forum, so it's possible that I get a game entered into the database as a W/L that was actually decided in OT or PK's, and should have been entered as a regulation draw. If I am made aware of this, then I will fix the result in the database.

3) Games when teams "play up" in age will generally NOT be counted in the rankings for that team's age group (i.e. games with an '06 team playing up against '05's will not be counted in the '06 ranking calculation). This comes down to the ability to calculate an accurate SoS value for the older group opponents. However, those games will typically be used in the FBR calculation for the older age group (i.e. games between '06's and '05's will be used for the '05 calculation). The younger team will typically be playing multiple games against teams in the older group, which provides enough data to get an accurate SoS calculation for the younger team relative to the older teams.

Do small-sided tournament games count?

RMALOY wrote:Do small-sided tournament games count?

Nope.

bwgophers wrote:

RMALOY wrote:Do small-sided tournament games count?

Nope.

Why not?

VultureVic wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

RMALOY wrote:Do small-sided tournament games count?

Nope.

Why not?

Because my intention with FBR is to provide a general assessment of the relative strength of teams in full-sided outdoor games. (i.e. what they will be playing in LHGCL at U11). Strength/Success in small-sided games does not necessarily translate to strength/success in full-sided games (and vice-versa). Therefore, I do not count small-sided games in FBR.

I disagree with your logic BWG. My little Suzy and 1 out of 13 teammates played a game against the entire number 1 ranked team during a pickup game at recess the other day. Suzy scored 45 goals by herself and they won the game 31 to 14. (She scored 14 own goals). This should count in FBR. Please adjust accordingly. Thanks.

[quote="jsullivan81"]I disagree with your logic BWG. My little Suzy and 1 out of 13 teammates played a game against the entire number 1 ranked team during a pickup game at recess the other day. Suzy scored 45 goals by herself and they won the game 31 to 14. (She scored 14 own goals). This should count in FBR. Please adjust accordingly. Thanks. [/quot



Good point. These results need to be reflected.

jsullivan81 wrote:I disagree with your logic BWG. My little Suzy and 1 out of 13 teammates played a game against the entire number 1 ranked team during a pickup game at recess the other day. Suzy scored 45 goals by herself and they won the game 31 to 14. (She scored 14 own goals). This should count in FBR. Please adjust accordingly. Thanks.

Then by all means, please feel free to start publishing your own rankings, using whatever criteria that you see fit. Never said that FBR has to be the only game in town.

Then by all means, please feel free to start publishing your own rankings, using whatever criteria that you see fit.  Never said that FBR has to be the only game in town.[/quote]

BW translation - Hahahahahahaha!

Turn that frown up side down!!!!

i think it is a great measure for those wanting that kind of thing. it has been proven in many age levels as well for its accuracy. there is always a hiccup where something does not make sense but then again, it is soccer right?

Doesn't get much better than FBR. My DD an 04 and we took a look back at how things sit now compared to then. Her team has made big improvement.

Will the games that were played Friday and Saturday during FlameFest and Kyle Owens be added even though the tourneys were called on Sunday?

aesoccer wrote:Will the games that were played Friday and Saturday during FlameFest and Kyle Owens be added even though the tourneys were called on Sunday?

Yes. Just haven't had time to publish updated rankings yet.

bwgophers wrote:

aesoccer wrote:Will the games that were played Friday and Saturday during FlameFest and Kyle Owens be added even though the tourneys were called on Sunday?

Yes.  Just haven't had time to publish updated rankings yet.  

Will the '06 be updated?