04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas G04 Youth Soccer Rankings - September 19th, 2016
These are the North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas Girls 2004 Birth Year rankings as calculated by Excel Solver using a best fit algorithm to match up team strength ratings with actual tournament and league play results.   Rankings for the teams that have a higher sample size are starting to get stable. Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

NTX, OK and STX Girls 2004 Soccer Rankings (as of September 19th, 2016)






This is the current list of sources for scores:
2016 King Tut presented by Toyota
LHGCL Qualifying Tournament
Texas Summer Classic
Dallas International Soccer Festival
2016 PreSeason Challenge
Premier Cup 2016
Beat the Heat (Edmond, OK)
36th Annual Bob Wiseman Memorial
Primetime Girls U14 2003 (11v11)
Junior Development League - LHJDL
LHGCL D1 League Play
LHGCL D2 League Play
Plano Premier Invitiational League Red - PPIL RED
Plano Premier Invitiational League White - PPIL WHITE
Arlington Premier Invitiational League D1 - APIL D1
Oklahoma Premier League Gold - OPL Gold
Oklahoma Premier League Silver - OPL Silver
Oklahoma Competitive League D1 - OCL D1
Oklahoma Competitive League D2 - OCL D2

I know these rankings are supposed to drum up posts, so I'll bite.
If head-to-head doesn't mean much then you'll have to explain your algorithm and why it is worth looking at the results.

This is based on results of head to head, and the teams those teams played head to head results, thus Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

Let me know if that helps explain how this works...  further...

Simple example if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays Oklahoma FC OFC 04 (OK) and TSC wins 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - (-0.339) = (TSC Favored by ~3.69) that will cause TSC to drop and possibly OFC to rise, but probably not by as much because of the larger sample size for OFC.

Next if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays DT South 04 and Texans win 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - 1.95 = (TSC Favored by 1.4) that would have an impact to the ratings as DT South would move up some and TSC would move down by more (due to the smaller sample size for TSC).

Anyway, the more games we have in the sample, the closer we will get mathematically to a stable predictor of results.  Currently we are at 429 games.

Hope that helps.

04GR, thanks again for doing these.  I do not care what anybody else says, it is fun to keep score.

I got a little something I'm cooking up to post tonight hopefully. Based on current rankings was going to post the point differential according to the excel solver ratings! We will see how close it is after the weekend, or better yet if it creates some decent conversation?

here you go... you will need to do some math but this tells you what Excel Solver thinks the score diff will be...

So for example the 1st on the list:
LP Barnes -5 vs Texas Spirit -9, thus LP Barnes is a 4 goal favorite
another example from bottom
FC Dallas 04 JDL Red +5 vs D'Feeters Pfeil -3, thus FC Dallas is a ~8 goal favorite
Enjoy the rest of your week and good luck to everyone this weekend!

How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?

FC Storm wrote:How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?

2.39-2.69= -0.30 which effectively solver gives pulp a slight (0.30) edge but more than likely it will end in a tie as it is closer to zero.

Result of this one could have a decent impact on these two teams rating depending on the outcome.

Another game with significant potential to affect their teams rating is Blitz vs TSC Hurricanes griffin. Griffin is favored by several goals but outcome could be closer than solver predicts which would lower griffin's rating and drop their rank.

Btw I will wait until after that game to post this next weeks rankings.

So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.

TatonkaBurger wrote:So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.

Yes. Come October I'm launching my sportsbook business for 04 girls soccer. Just wait for it

Thanks for doing this.  Definitely will come in handy for Tournament directors come November+ tournaments.

Please send me JDL scores! Thx

Dallas Texans - 1
Solar Arnold - 1
- Solar scores in the last minute for the tie

Solar Pulp - 6
FCD Blue - 0

Dallas Texans South-2
Sting G-1

FCD JDL RED-6
D'Feeters-0

When does FCD Red play Solar Red?

10-23-16