'02 Girls FBR Rankings - Week 5

RoidRage wrote:I say we try a BCS. But, I have a question....does it matter how high we go..ie..top20, top30? Reason I ask is because after about top 20-25 My knowledge of teams starts going to guessing! I suppose as more data and scores start coming in it will be easier! I believe as of now myself and AP pollster are going to do at least a top 20 every week. Anyone else want in? Also another question for Gophers....how many polls do u need to compute the BCS?

Sounds great.

bwgophers wrote:

As a point of reference, Arlington PAL includes Polaris 02. Polaris 02 played in Texas Winter Cup at the end of January. In that tourney, Polaris split 2 games with D'Feeters 02 (currently ranked #15 in FBR), and lost 1-0 to TFC Wells (currently ranked #17 in FBR).

Dynasty beat Polaris 3-0 in Arlington PAL on Feb 20. So, Dynasty beat a team by 3 goals that has been very competitive with well known SDL teams currently ranked in or near the top 15 (I believe Roid Rage even has Feet in his top 10).

Agree with the earlier post. The Polaris team had a beefed up roster for the tournament. No knock on Dynasty, but they played a different set of girls.

soccer4life wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

As a point of reference, Arlington PAL includes Polaris 02. Polaris 02 played in Texas Winter Cup at the end of January. In that tourney, Polaris split 2 games with D'Feeters 02 (currently ranked #15 in FBR), and lost 1-0 to TFC Wells (currently ranked #17 in FBR).

Dynasty beat Polaris 3-0 in Arlington PAL on Feb 20. So, Dynasty beat a team by 3 goals that has been very competitive with well known SDL teams currently ranked in or near the top 15 (I believe Roid Rage even has Feet in his top 10).

Agree with the earlier post. The Polaris team had a beefed up roster for the tournament. No knock on Dynasty, but they played a different set of girls.

RoidRage wrote:I say we try a BCS. But, I have a question....does it matter how high we go..ie..top20, top30? Reason I ask is because after about top 20-25 My knowledge of teams starts going to guessing! I suppose as more data and scores start coming in it will be easier! I believe as of now myself and AP pollster are going to do at least a top 20 every week. Anyone else want in? Also another question for Gophers....how many polls do u need to compute the BCS?

O.K. You asked for it... Here's the details...

In the FBR software package, I technically have the ability to combine the FBR rankings with 3 separate polls (called AP, Harris, and Coaches in the software) to form a BCS. However, if I were to combine FBR + 3 polls, I would have to modify how I post FBR rankings. Right now, when I calculate FBR, I actually include results from games against the '03 teams that are playing up in '02 leagues. In order to avoid confusion and keep things looking neat and clean when I post on the forum, I actually copy the FBR ranking results into the "Coaches" Poll, and during that transfer, remove the '03 teams from being listed in the rankings.

So, based on how I currently use FBR, what I really can do is add up to 2 additional polls to the FBR to calculate a BCS rankings.

For the '01's we currently combine FBR ("Coaches Poll"), Power Rankings ("Harris Poll" - PR are another '01 computer ranking managed and posted by Hobbit), and OrangeBlooded's consolidated human poll ("AP Poll"). This is done with a weighting ratio of 30% Coaches, 30% Harris, 40% AP.

OB's human poll takes however many people decide to post their own rankings of top 30 teams (30 teams because that's how many make it into LHGCL at U11) and combines them together into a single poll. Similar to what AP poll does in real life, each ballot assigns #1 30 points, #2 29 points, #3 28 points... down to #30 who is assigned 1 point. Add the point totals from all of the pollsters and re-sort with the team getting the most points at #1, 2nd most points at #2, and so on down the line. Typically, for the '01's we get about 7-10 people who post their own rankings every week. By averaging out over this many people, it tends to dampen the impact of "homerism" in any one individual ranking, and you get a pretty reasonable outcome when all is said and done.

Now... How should the '02's do it? Well, at the end of the day, it's really up to you guys to decide. I will say that I think that what we have done with the '01's works very well and really gives a pretty solid overall picture of the '01 scene. However, as I stated before, to do that requires some '02 folks to step up. You would need to find someone who was willing to work with Hobbitt or OMK to get an '02 Power Rankings set up and was willing to do the work to maintain and publish it on a weekly basis. You would also need more people to step up and publish their own opinion based rankings so that you could get better averaging. Unless a majority of the '02 folks on the forum say that they trust the objectivity of the rankings published by RoidRage and/or AP Pollster and were willing to accept those polls as accurate representations of the '02 top 20+ teams.

So, long story, short...

Option 1: Simply add RoidRage & AP Pollsters polls as "Harris" and "AP" to the "Coaches" (FBR), determine how much weighting you want to give each of these 3 polls, and come up with your '02 BCS.

Option 2: Go whole hog and copy what the '01 have done. Get someone to start up an '02 Power Rankings that becomes the "Harris" Poll, get a few more people to publish opinion rankings on a weekly basis and average those together as the "AP" Poll, and combine those with FBR "Coaches" Poll, as the '02 BCS.

Option 3: Pretty much anything in between Options #1 & #2. Again, it really comes down to whatever the '02's want and are willing to commit to maintain on a weekly basis.

I really don't want to be the driving force behind deciding if and how an '02 BCS is implemented. I will handle the data entry into the database, calculation, and publishing of the '02 BCS rankings. I will also give my input when asked about things like how I think the various polls should be weighted in the BCS calculation. BUT... I really don't want to dictate anything about how an '02 BCS should look. It really is up '02 parents to decide how they want it to look and/or what they think will look best.

Sorry for the long posts, but as Raul warned... when you step into the Chamber of Imaginary Knowledge and ask a question, expect to be there until your '02 DD has finished college...

BJones wrote:

soccer4life wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

As a point of reference, Arlington PAL includes Polaris 02. Polaris 02 played in Texas Winter Cup at the end of January. In that tourney, Polaris split 2 games with D'Feeters 02 (currently ranked #15 in FBR), and lost 1-0 to TFC Wells (currently ranked #17 in FBR).

Dynasty beat Polaris 3-0 in Arlington PAL on Feb 20. So, Dynasty beat a team by 3 goals that has been very competitive with well known SDL teams currently ranked in or near the top 15 (I believe Roid Rage even has Feet in his top 10).

Agree with the earlier post. The Polaris team had a beefed up roster for the tournament. No knock on Dynasty, but they played a different set of girls.

That clears some things up a bit. Polaris in PALS looks ok/avg good but in tourn. they look outstanding, I never payed close attention .In tournaments my poor DD's team usually meets the beefed up Polaris with a kid up front who scores 3-4 goals a game , we never seem to meet the Polaris team that we might possible be competetive with!I guess in tournaments its all llegal, we just need to find us a way to beef up in tournaments I suppose!

Against Dynasty Polaris had 3 players out sick, starters and they play Prime Time and Pal back to back games on Sunday. No excuses play with who can make the game, but girls can have a bad day at this age. Polaris beat Solar in Pal game did not show how one sided it was for Polaris, should have one 5-0. Team is getting back on track. Teams always invite players out for tournaments, who does not just look at all the kids playing on different top teams. Just wait till summer, they will be beefy again and ready to compete. And just a side note there was a whole team of Polaris players behind the girl that scored in the tournament those girls were able to compete and shut down most teams and there was Polaris forwards who scored as well. MMMMM a contender team for sure, from the west side and still adding players to put the team in position to be ready for the fall season. The coach took this group only since last Aug. Watch out for this team!!!!!!!

Every just don't be scarred of Polaris or should you???!!!!!!

x

BJones wrote:No disrespect to your team they have come along nicely.In a tourn. I just noticed the player(s) who found the back of the net constantly-just stood out strength and skill wise. Actually hurt one of our goalie's wrists pretty badly with one of her hard shots. She's ok now. I enjoy watching your girls make improvements, nice to see some smaller based clubs competing with the Dallas clubs. And you are right , no kids does it on her own (not even 2-3) the rest of the team has to be "on"for it to fall into place. Good job. We look forward to playing ya'll again.

Thanks great match up in tournament, can't wait to play ya'll again. Glad goalie is ok and on the mend.

Hello,

Just wanted to add a correction needed in your rankings. You have TFC Angell 02G ranked 23 with 2 w and 2 l. That is incorrect they have 3W - 2T - 0L this season. Not sure how all of this gets reported but just thought I would mention it.

Thanks

playermade07 wrote:Hello,

Just wanted to add a correction needed in your rankings. You have TFC Angell 02G ranked 23 with 2 w and 2 l. That is incorrect they have 3W - 2T - 0L this season. Not sure how all of this gets reported but just thought I would mention it.

Thanks

Actually, TFC-Angell is listed correctly. The record is listed as W-L-D in FBR, not W-D-L as it is on the CAL standings page. Also, you are looking at last weeks' rankings, so that does not include your W over Sting Harr this weekend.

Angell's record is correct at 3W-0L-2D in my current database. New '02 FBR rankings should be published later today.

Great thank you for all the work. As I'm sure you have already figured out I'm new to reading how the stats get calculated. I appreciate you taking the time to reply.

Have a good day!