Re: Puma Cup, will it even matter??????

by 4-4-2-Diamond 13/07/12, 07:26 am

Sent to the Stands wrote:How do you know that the difference between a team's QT performance and their subsequent performance during the season is an indicator that the team was mis-seeded? That interpretation assumes that a team's level of performance is static. What about the fact that teams continue to train and develop during the season? Isn't it just as likely that the team played better than their initial seeding/QT performance because they became a better team?

It's a good point. And probably true in some cases. In most the examples I went through the indicator of mis-seeding was a team being seeded differently by LH than their historical results warranted.

In several cases where the team's history reflected they should've been X, and LH bumped them higher (or lower) than X, they may have qualified different than X but over the season it became apparent they really were suppposed to be an X.

Those are pretty clear cases in my opinion where seeding hurts (or helps) teams.

by grassyknoll 13/07/12, 08:18 am

4-4-2-Diamond wrote:How a team plays in their QT games is the PRIMARY determining factor. No argument there. How a team is SEEDED is a major, contributing factor. Easy stuff.

It's the mechanics of the LH bracketing. Where a team is seeded dictates the quality of opponents they face the first weeekend, which in turn affects the number of points they can get first weekend, which affects the quality of opponents they face second weekend.

Roughly equivalent teams will have their QT fortunes impacted by their seed - the schedule says so.

Not only that, but where a team manages to end up after qualifying dictates what teams they play during the league season. Thus you never really know how good or bad a poorly seeded team would've done in a different division, you can only know that they either performed up to their qualifying position over the year, or they didn't.

The end result is I could make a case for far more teams than you listed, with results after QT that didn't line up with their finishing position at QT.

Let's take DT North and FWFC. DT North was ranked 19 in FBR pre-QT, FWFC was ranked 17. By any measure, these were roughly equivalent teams going in.

LH gave DT North the 15 seed, and gave FWFC the 19 seed. I'd be interested to hear what pre QT tourneys both teams did.

In any event FWFC had to play a tough opponent week one (tied a #4 seed), ended up with a tough 2nd weekend bracket, and ultimately Qualified D3. DT North meanwhile at 15 seed had no such #4 seed in their bracket, and qualified D1 first weekend.

Of course you can argue DT North took care of business. They did. But their higher seed ALSO meant they played weaker teams. Switch those two seeds and leave all else the same, and there is an argument DT North ends up D3 or at best a 2nd weekend D1 qualifier, and FWFC ends up in 20 team D1.

Their records over the course of the season back that up. DT North finished QT @ 9th, indicating they were a top 10 team. But they ended up fighting it out with a close pack of teams to keep from getting dropped to D3. FWFC went on to win D3 and is now headed to D2, indicating they probably would've fared just as well as DT North in a 20 team D1 @ U11.

Two equal teams, a 4 position difference in QT seed, different strength of QT opponents, and different outcomes.

Of course there are other scenarios like that from last year's results, but for some reason you picked out a handful and made a definitive claim those were the only ones impacted by their seed? It's a stretch.

The seed, and the resulting schedule driven from that seed is clearly a factor in QT outcomes. Common knowledge. Data supports the notion (i.e the very small % of teams that overcome poor seeds, and the very small % of teams that fail to qualify with good seeds).

You can say LH does a very good job with the seeding. They do. The data support that also. But you'll need politician worthy spin to cobble together any convincing data supporting seeding doesn't matter.

If it didn't matter we wouldn't be talking about it, and LH wouldn't put so much effort into getting it right.

What makes you think FWFC would have done as well in D1 as DTN?
Of course seeding matters somewhat, but the thing that carries the most weight, is how you play at QT. Doesn't matter about seeding. Play good soccer, and your seed becomes irrelevant.

by 4-4-2-Diamond 13/07/12, 08:57 am

What makes you think FWFC would have done as well in D1 as DTN?

Their results before and after QT. What makes you think they would not?

Of course seeding matters somewhat, AGREED

but the thing that carries the most weight, is how you play at QT. AGREED

Doesn't matter about seeding. We just agreed it did.

Play good soccer, and your seed becomes irrelevant. Thats not what the history shows.

by berserker13 13/07/12, 09:16 am

I think where seeding has the biggest impact is in the 15-25 range, or the bubble between D1 and D3, and same can be said for the D3 to PPL bubble. In most ages, and I think 02's are in the norm, the top 5 teams are much stronger that the next 5, but then things tend to plateau out with less and less difference between teams down to about 35, then it starts to drop off more steeply again. If you are seeded near the 20 range you are going to play a top 5 team in the first weekend. if you are near the 15 range you will play someone in the 5-10 range. There is more chance of an upset when #10 and #13 play in the first weekend. I would even argue that if a team was really in the 8-10 range and was misseeded into playing a top 5 team, they would have very little chance of upsetting a top 5 team. This becomes even more difficult in that the second weekend seeding is carried over with the lower bracket 2nd place teams seeded highest. Granted a team that was misseeded can over come this by playing well, but when the talent is more equal, the any given day scenario can come into play.

by Guest 13/07/12, 10:16 am

Let's also make sure you don't confuse seeding with "luck of the draw"...

Going into week 1 of QT last year, if you offered #19 FWFC a chance to swap with #23 LP Rush, do you think they would've taken it? I highly doubt it.

FWFC's week 1 games were against Andro and AFC Red
LP Rush's week 1 games were against Bates and Sting West O'Keefe

Think FWFC would've agreed to swap with #18 Tx. Spirit in order to play Grubb and Andro Gold, or swap with #17 Redstar to play Kicks and TFC Blue? Doubt they would've wanted to do either of those as well.

If you told FWFC they could have the choice of being the #19 seed and having to play #18, #33, & #35 in week #2, or being #23 seed and playing #9, #28, & #37 in week #2, which do you think they would've chosen? I'm thinking they would have chosen to be the #19 seed. I'm thinking LP Rush would have made the same choices if given those options.

Now, it just so happens that the #33 (Cosmos) and #35 (FC Dallas Pratt) seeds, were two of the teams where in hindsight, LH probably made 2 of their larger seeding errors.

Turns out that by the "luck of the draw", being the #23 seed last year probably led to easier QT road than being the #19 seed. But if you go by 4-4-2 Diamonds mantra, LP Rush should've done everything they could have to be the #19 seed instead of #23. Oh, wait a second, LP Rush did exactly what 4-4-2 Diamond says that they should have... They played in King TUT, and FWFC played in Puma Cup. Wait a second, how the heck did LP Rush end up with a lower seed than FWFC? No way that should've happened according 4-4-2 Diamond.

That's my whole point...

You CAN'T predict how the seeding is going to come out.
You CAN'T say that getting a higher seed is necessarily going to give you an easier path through the QT.

...and I'll stick to my contention that 90% of the time it doesn't matter where you end up being seeded. Sure, there are and will always be 3 or 4 teams that will get impacted (positively or negatively) by the seeding of their team, but just as many, if not more, will get impacted by "luck of the draw" - other teams being improperly seeded, or by just pulling a particularly good or bad match-up for their team.

You can't control or influence any of that, so why waste any time or energy to try and focus on that or try to outsmart the system?

I'd much rather have my coach, kids, parents focus on something that they actually do have some level of control over, which is simply do whatever you can to prepare your DD's and your DD's team to be playing at their best come QT. Do that, and there is a 90% chance that you will end up exactly where you belong once league play stars at the end of August.

Gophers... OUT!

by mcik17 13/07/12, 10:40 am

bwgophers wrote:Let's also make sure you don't confuse seeding with "luck of the draw"...

Going into week 1 of QT last year, if you offered #19 FWFC a chance to swap with #23 LP Rush, do you think they would've taken it? I highly doubt it.

FWFC's week 1 games were against Andro and AFC Red
LP Rush's week 1 games were against Bates and Sting West O'Keefe

Think FWFC would've agreed to swap with #18 Tx. Spirit in order to play Grubb and Andro Gold, or swap with #17 Redstar to play Kicks and TFC Blue? Doubt they would've wanted to do either of those as well.

If you told FWFC they could have the choice of being the #19 seed and having to play #18, #33, & #35 in week #2, or being #23 seed and playing #9, #28, & #37 in week #2, which do you think they would've chosen? I'm thinking they would have chosen to be the #19 seed. I'm thinking LP Rush would have made the same choices if given those options.

Now, it just so happens that the #33 (Cosmos) and #35 (FC Dallas Pratt) seeds, were two of the teams where in hindsight, LH probably made 2 of their larger seeding errors.

Turns out that by the "luck of the draw", being the #23 seed last year probably led to easier QT road than being the #19 seed. But if you go by 4-4-2 Diamonds mantra, LP Rush should've done everything they could have to be the #19 seed instead of #23. Oh, wait a second, LP Rush did exactly what 4-4-2 Diamond says that they should have... They played in King TUT, and FWFC played in Puma Cup. Wait a second, how the heck did LP Rush end up with a lower seed than FWFC? No way that should've happened according 4-4-2 Diamond.

That's my whole point...

You CAN'T predict how the seeding is going to come out.
You CAN'T say that getting a higher seed is necessarily going to give you an easier path through the QT.

...and I'll stick to my contention that 90% of the time it doesn't matter where you end up being seeded. Sure, there are and will always be 3 or 4 teams that will get impacted (positively or negatively) by the seeding of their team, but just as many, if not more, will get impacted by "luck of the draw" - other teams being improperly seeded, or by just pulling a particularly good or bad match-up for their team.

You can't control or influence any of that, so why waste any time or energy to try and focus on that or try to outsmart the system?

I'd much rather have my coach, kids, parents focus on something that they actually do have some level of control over, which is simply do whatever you can to prepare your DD's and your DD's team to be playing at their best come QT. Do that, and there is a 90% chance that you will end up exactly where you belong once league play stars at the end of August.

Gophers... OUT!

But the real question is: What's your favorite candy?

by Guest 13/07/12, 10:49 am

mcik17 wrote:

But the real question is: What's your favorite candy?

Eye

by Sent to the Stands 13/07/12, 10:52 am

mcik17 wrote:
bwgophers wrote:Let's also make sure you don't confuse seeding with "luck of the draw"...

Going into week 1 of QT last year, if you offered #19 FWFC a chance to swap with #23 LP Rush, do you think they would've taken it? I highly doubt it.

FWFC's week 1 games were against Andro and AFC Red
LP Rush's week 1 games were against Bates and Sting West O'Keefe

Think FWFC would've agreed to swap with #18 Tx. Spirit in order to play Grubb and Andro Gold, or swap with #17 Redstar to play Kicks and TFC Blue? Doubt they would've wanted to do either of those as well.

If you told FWFC they could have the choice of being the #19 seed and having to play #18, #33, & #35 in week #2, or being #23 seed and playing #9, #28, & #37 in week #2, which do you think they would've chosen? I'm thinking they would have chosen to be the #19 seed. I'm thinking LP Rush would have made the same choices if given those options.

Now, it just so happens that the #33 (Cosmos) and #35 (FC Dallas Pratt) seeds, were two of the teams where in hindsight, LH probably made 2 of their larger seeding errors.

Turns out that by the "luck of the draw", being the #23 seed last year probably led to easier QT road than being the #19 seed. But if you go by 4-4-2 Diamonds mantra, LP Rush should've done everything they could have to be the #19 seed instead of #23. Oh, wait a second, LP Rush did exactly what 4-4-2 Diamond says that they should have... They played in King TUT, and FWFC played in Puma Cup. Wait a second, how the heck did LP Rush end up with a lower seed than FWFC? No way that should've happened according 4-4-2 Diamond.

That's my whole point...

You CAN'T predict how the seeding is going to come out.
You CAN'T say that getting a higher seed is necessarily going to give you an easier path through the QT.

...and I'll stick to my contention that 90% of the time it doesn't matter where you end up being seeded. Sure, there are and will always be 3 or 4 teams that will get impacted (positively or negatively) by the seeding of their team, but just as many, if not more, will get impacted by "luck of the draw" - other teams being improperly seeded, or by just pulling a particularly good or bad match-up for their team.

You can't control or influence any of that, so why waste any time or energy to try and focus on that or try to outsmart the system?

I'd much rather have my coach, kids, parents focus on something that they actually do have some level of control over, which is simply do whatever you can to prepare your DD's and your DD's team to be playing at their best come QT. Do that, and there is a 90% chance that you will end up exactly where you belong once league play stars at the end of August.

Gophers... OUT!

But the real question is: What's your favorite candy?

I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?

by mcik17 13/07/12, 10:56 am

bwgophers wrote:
mcik17 wrote:

But the real question is: What's your favorite candy?

Eye

No really! Was going to bring your favorite to the game when we play you guys at Tut...as a Ty for all the hard work the last yr for the 02's.

by Guest 13/07/12, 10:56 am

Sent to the Stands wrote:

I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?

Sure thing Sweetheart... I'll take you as soon as I'm done posting on the forum about how your team ended up in D3 only because Lake Highlands screwed you over on your seeding because your idiot coach chose to play in Puma Cup instead of King TUT...

by Guest 13/07/12, 11:08 am

mcik17 wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
mcik17 wrote:

But the real question is: What's your favorite candy?

Eye

No really! Was going to bring your favorite to the game when we play you guys at Tut...as a Ty for all the hard work the last yr for the 02's.

Just a firm handshake and few kind words will suffice. I'll be pretty easy to find. There's a little more to me than the rest of the Dad's on our sideline if you know what I mean.

Looking forward to seeing your DD's team play. I'm hoping our girls can give them a run for their money.

by 1more_dd_dad 13/07/12, 11:14 am

bwgophers wrote:
Sent to the Stands wrote: I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?
Sure thing Sweetheart... I'll take you as soon as I'm done posting on the forum about how your team ended up in D3 only because Lake Highlands screwed you over on your seeding because your idiot coach chose to play in Puma Cup instead of King TUT...

Actually the LHGCL directors view the Puma Cup as the stronger tournament. That may be changing, but in discussions I have had with folks that make those decisions, that is how they view it...

by Sent to the Stands 13/07/12, 11:26 am

1more_dd_dad wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
Sent to the Stands wrote: I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?
Sure thing Sweetheart... I'll take you as soon as I'm done posting on the forum about how your team ended up in D3 only because Lake Highlands screwed you over on your seeding because your idiot coach chose to play in Puma Cup instead of King TUT...

Actually the LHGCL directors view the Puma Cup as the stronger tournament. That may be changing, but in discussions I have had with folks that make those decisions, that is how they view it...

That may be true from a historical perspective, but looking at this year's mix of teams in the two events, it is hard to believe they would view it that way. Specifically, 30 of the 44 teams (if you include FCD Premier who is playing up) in the qualifying tourney are registered to play in TUT. If the job of the QT spotters is to evaluate the relative strengths of the QT teams in order to seed them, then I don't know how Puma could be judged to provide a better place to evaluate those teams.

by 1more_dd_dad 13/07/12, 11:36 am

Sent to the Stands wrote:
1more_dd_dad wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
Sent to the Stands wrote: I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?
Sure thing Sweetheart... I'll take you as soon as I'm done posting on the forum about how your team ended up in D3 only because Lake Highlands screwed you over on your seeding because your idiot coach chose to play in Puma Cup instead of King TUT...

Actually the LHGCL directors view the Puma Cup as the stronger tournament. That may be changing, but in discussions I have had with folks that make those decisions, that is how they view it...

That may be true from a historical perspective, but looking at this year's mix of teams in the two events, it is hard to believe they would view it that way. Specifically, 30 of the 44 teams (if you include FCD Premier who is playing up) in the qualifying tourney are registered to play in TUT. If the job of the QT spotters is to evaluate the relative strengths of the QT teams in order to seed them, then I don't know how Puma could be judged to provide a better place to evaluate those teams.

The point of my response was that the coaches register in tournaments according to past participation. Thats all the coach can go off of...

by 4-4-2-Diamond 13/07/12, 12:02 pm

Gophers you seem to be flailing around quite a bit. Rather emotionally I might add (for one who prides himself on rational thought).

I've made no declaration that a choice of pre QT tourney will have any bonafide impact on a LH seed. I've suggested it may be a good idea to participate in one, vs skipping them, and secondly to go wherever the competition is going. Not sure where this whole "out smart the system" stuff is coming from. Certainly not from anything I've posted.

I've speculated that based on last year alone, the teams participating in Puma Cup didn't fare as well with LH seeds as those that did King Tut. I haven't crunched any numbers on that - it was just a speculative comment based on what I remember. There is no question King Tut had a stronger field than Puma Cup for '01s.

What I have said is, based on the data, one can conclude LH was the King Maker. Especially when you consider the hordes of equivalent teams in the 15 to 35 range. You have presented nothing to objectively counter the fact that a VERY small # of teams overcame a bad seed, or managed to throw away a good one. And I suspect that holds true every year, given the format of the competition.

Now who knows what all criteria coaches use when deciding where they will play pre QT? I'm sure proximity and likely competition are factors. You sound rather righteous in your proclamations that not only should they never consider their team's potential LH seed, but that said LH seed will have NO relevance on their chances at QT.

We're all entitled to our opinions, even when they don't make a lick of sense.

by 4-4-2-Diamond 13/07/12, 12:12 pm

1more_dd_dad wrote:
The point of my response was that the coaches register in tournaments according to past participation. Thats all the coach can go off of...

This is a good point. I know '01 Kicks teams ended up in Puma last year thinking it would have as strong a field as the '00 group did the summer before. In hindsight, still worked out pretty well for them.

by Guest 13/07/12, 12:24 pm

4-4-2-Diamond wrote:Gophers you seem to be flailing around quite a bit. Rather emotionally I might add (for one who prides himself on rational thought).

I've made no declaration that a choice of pre QT tourney will have any bonafide impact on a LH seed. I've suggested it may be a good idea to participate in one, vs skipping them, and secondly to go wherever the competition is going. Not sure where this whole "out smart the system" stuff is coming from. Certainly not from anything I've posted.

I've speculated that based on last year alone, the teams participating in Puma Cup didn't fare as well with LH seeds as those that did King Tut. I haven't crunched any numbers on that - it was just a speculative comment based on what I remember. There is no question King Tut had a stronger field than Puma Cup for '01s.

What I have said is, based on the data, one can conclude LH was the King Maker. Especially when you consider the hordes of equivalent teams in the 15 to 35 range. You have presented nothing to objectively counter the fact that a VERY small # of teams overcame a bad seed, or managed to throw away a good one. And I suspect that holds true every year, given the format of the competition.

Now who knows what all criteria coaches use when deciding where they will play pre QT? I'm sure proximity and likely competition are factors. You sound rather righteous in your proclamations that not only should they never consider their team's potential LH seed, but that said LH seed will have NO relevance on their chances at QT.

We're all entitled to our opinions, even when they don't make a lick of sense.

Yup. You're right. Let myself get carried away and way too worked up over this. My bad.

I should've let it go with my final words in post #18 of this thread "To each their own"... Anyone who knows me will tell you that I just can't keep my mouth shut sometimes...

Consider this horse D-E-A-D... Bionic Cat... where are you??????????

by Sent to the Stands 13/07/12, 02:56 pm

1more_dd_dad wrote:
Sent to the Stands wrote:
1more_dd_dad wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
Sent to the Stands wrote: I thought the real question was: Can I have ice cream now that the tournament is over?
Sure thing Sweetheart... I'll take you as soon as I'm done posting on the forum about how your team ended up in D3 only because Lake Highlands screwed you over on your seeding because your idiot coach chose to play in Puma Cup instead of King TUT...

Actually the LHGCL directors view the Puma Cup as the stronger tournament. That may be changing, but in discussions I have had with folks that make those decisions, that is how they view it...

That may be true from a historical perspective, but looking at this year's mix of teams in the two events, it is hard to believe they would view it that way. Specifically, 30 of the 44 teams (if you include FCD Premier who is playing up) in the qualifying tourney are registered to play in TUT. If the job of the QT spotters is to evaluate the relative strengths of the QT teams in order to seed them, then I don't know how Puma could be judged to provide a better place to evaluate those teams.

The point of my response was that the coaches register in tournaments according to past participation. Thats all the coach can go off of...

Apparently a perception that LH favors the Puma Cup was not driving this year's registration, because 30 out of 44 coaches chose Tut.

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