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'04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
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'04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 01:47 pm
...because last week's '04 FBR Ranking post didn't stir up enough debate...
Current Rankings include game results from 11/03/12 through PRESENT.
Current Inter-Tier Records
Current Rankings include game results from 11/03/12 through PRESENT.
Current Inter-Tier Records
Last edited by bwgophers on 05/03/13, 11:31 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Corrected errors found in Fever point total from 3/5 and DTN/TSNR point total from 2/26)
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Something doesn't make sense
by seamusdog 05/03/13, 04:59 pm
bwgophers, I need you to explain how Sting - Goodman (ranked # 11 last week) ties Juventus (ranked # 20 last week) and Sting jumps to # 10. But Fever (ranked # 8 last week) ties Daglish (ranked # 2 last week) but somehow drops to # 13.
Both teams only play in one league for the purpose of the rankings.
As a guy that understands statistics and analytics, I'm pretty sure you can't justify that one. You have simply dropped two wins from Fever that were earned between 10/27/12 and 11/03/12. But you need to justify that time frame if you are going to make that adjustment. It seems a major flaw in your ranking system to, apparently, weight games from four or five months ago equally to games taking place in the last week.
Any ranking system has to pass the common sense test, and a # 8 team tying a # 2 team but dropping 5 spots simply makes no sense.
Thoughts?
Full disclosure: My daughter plays for Fever.
Both teams only play in one league for the purpose of the rankings.
As a guy that understands statistics and analytics, I'm pretty sure you can't justify that one. You have simply dropped two wins from Fever that were earned between 10/27/12 and 11/03/12. But you need to justify that time frame if you are going to make that adjustment. It seems a major flaw in your ranking system to, apparently, weight games from four or five months ago equally to games taking place in the last week.
Any ranking system has to pass the common sense test, and a # 8 team tying a # 2 team but dropping 5 spots simply makes no sense.
Thoughts?
Full disclosure: My daughter plays for Fever.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 05:20 pm
seamusdog wrote:bwgophers, I need you to explain how Sting - Goodman (ranked # 11 last week) ties Juventus (ranked # 20 last week) and Sting jumps to # 10. But Fever (ranked # 8 last week) ties Daglish (ranked # 2 last week) but somehow drops to # 13.
Both teams only play in one league for the purpose of the rankings.
As a guy that understands statistics and analytics, I'm pretty sure you can't justify that one. You have simply dropped two wins from Fever that were earned between 10/27/12 and 11/03/12. But you need to justify that time frame if you are going to make that adjustment. It seems a major flaw in your ranking system to, apparently, weight games from four or five months ago equally to games taking place in the last week.
Any ranking system has to pass the common sense test, and a # 8 team tying a # 2 team but dropping 5 spots simply makes no sense.
Thoughts?
Full disclosure: My daughter plays for Fever.
Agreed 100%. I have stated on several previous occasions that the single feature I wish I could add to FBR was the ability to apply a sliding weight scale based on the age of the result. That would help minimize the exact type of scenario that you bring up regarding Sting Goodman vs. Fever this week. It would also eliminate probably more than half of the questions I get about rankings, because week-week ranking movement would be more "logical". Unfortunately, I haven't been able to convince the folks at FBR to implement such a feature.
Now, with that said, while adding an "age-based" weighting feature would likely make the week-week changes in rankings appear more "logical" based on the most recent week's results, it may or may not change the fact that as of TODAY, with the game results between 11/1/12 and 3/5/13 considered, Goodman is ranked ahead of Fever based on the total body of work over that 4 month period. Under such a scenario, they may have actually been ranked ahead of Fever LAST week, and you just wouldn't have seen the ranking position flip-flop this week as a function of adding in new results and dropping the old.
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follow up
by seamusdog 05/03/13, 06:13 pm
I don't think that last paragraph holds water.
Moreover, the comparison between Sting Goodman and Fever is just one data point. The FBR system would have to justify five teams jumping ahead of Fever based on Fever tying the # 2 team. I simply don't think the numbers (particularly given the weekend of TGPL ties) can justify that result.
Moreover, the comparison between Sting Goodman and Fever is just one data point. The FBR system would have to justify five teams jumping ahead of Fever based on Fever tying the # 2 team. I simply don't think the numbers (particularly given the weekend of TGPL ties) can justify that result.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Shelby427 05/03/13, 06:27 pm
seamusdog wrote:I don't think that last paragraph holds water.
Moreover, the comparison between Sting Goodman and Fever is just one data point. The FBR system would have to justify five teams jumping ahead of Fever based on Fever tying the # 2 team. I simply don't think the numbers (particularly given the weekend of TGPL ties) can justify that result.
Your logic is flawed... as if those five teams do not justify themselves with their own games played...
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 06:32 pm
Is Fever BCS eligible? Heads are gonna roll....
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by seamusdog 05/03/13, 06:51 pm
You misunderstand. I am not impuning any of those teams or their results. Rather, I was pointing out that justifying a five spot drop merely by referencing just one of the rising teams doesn't explain the drop.
Simply put, my criticism is of a system that fails to make simple and (I would think) common sense improvements.
1. Weight recent results more heavily than past results.
2. Use time periods that make sense. League schedules cannot be controlled by the teams. Say, for instance, that a TGPL team plays the very best teams in the beginning and the great-but-not-the-very-best teams at the end. Even if a team wins all of those games, or most of them, using a "previous four months" formula penalizes that team for its schedule because the wins against good teams drop off first. It would make much more sense to use fixed points, such as the current season and the entirety of the prior season, to account for these scheduling anomalies.
To get down to brass tacks, Fever's FBR results change in only two ways (1) two wins "aged out" and dropped off, (2) we tied the # 2 team. Fever had no additional loses.
Does dropping five spots under that scenario make sense to you?
If it does, that's fine. I just disagree.
Simply put, my criticism is of a system that fails to make simple and (I would think) common sense improvements.
1. Weight recent results more heavily than past results.
2. Use time periods that make sense. League schedules cannot be controlled by the teams. Say, for instance, that a TGPL team plays the very best teams in the beginning and the great-but-not-the-very-best teams at the end. Even if a team wins all of those games, or most of them, using a "previous four months" formula penalizes that team for its schedule because the wins against good teams drop off first. It would make much more sense to use fixed points, such as the current season and the entirety of the prior season, to account for these scheduling anomalies.
To get down to brass tacks, Fever's FBR results change in only two ways (1) two wins "aged out" and dropped off, (2) we tied the # 2 team. Fever had no additional loses.
Does dropping five spots under that scenario make sense to you?
If it does, that's fine. I just disagree.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by go99 05/03/13, 06:52 pm
I am sure if Fever keeps playing like they are and keeps winning they will rise. It's a statistical thing with games dropping and plenty of BW calculations. In the end it seems to be fairly acurate (unless my team is not on top) it just takes some time to balance out. Consider just a couple of weeks ago RASE had dropped to 6th or 8th or something without losing a game. Don't try to peek behind the curtain, just use it as a slight and motivation to go out next week and win to show ol BW how wrong he is.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by futbollove 05/03/13, 06:53 pm
I never get the fascination with FBR and the hysteria it causes every week.
If your not first, you're last anyway!!
BW - keep em coming.
If your not first, you're last anyway!!
BW - keep em coming.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 06:55 pm
If so...thats gonna be like RM vs. Man U....I'm gonna TiVo that shyt!!
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 06:57 pm
futbollove wrote:I never get the fascination with FBR and the hysteria it causes every week.
If your not first, you're last anyway!!
BW - keep em coming.
Yeah, its just convo material for parents on the sideline at practice right....?
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 06:58 pm
futbollove wrote:I never get the fascination with FBR and the hysteria it causes every week.
If your not first, you're last anyway!!
BW - keep em coming.
Totally agree. Also did I miss something is the 04 LHGCL QT next week?
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by go99 05/03/13, 06:59 pm
Nope RASE is gonna forfiet that one. Doesn't go on the FBR and our parents poor little fragile egos couldn't take the loss Besides I think we have a kitten kicking seminar that weekend. It's good for getting that good bend on a free kick
Besides I think we have a kitten kicking seminar that weekend. It's good for getting that good bend on a free kick
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by seamusdog 05/03/13, 07:00 pm
Sorry, I suppose I should explain. I am a professor by trade and can often get "overly analytical." The fact that this involved my daughter's team piqued my interest and got me to look behind the numbers. I'm not at all upset. I'm just being that sometimes annoying professor guy, wanting folks to explain and justify their work rather than sitting back and accepting that it's just one ranking of 9 year old girls.
Please don't take it as an attack. Just chalk it up to intellectual curiosity.
Please don't take it as an attack. Just chalk it up to intellectual curiosity.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 07:02 pm
KixR4kidz wrote:Does Rase play DT Scott soon?
SDL schedule says they play twice.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 07:04 pm
I heard about Rase kicking out windows of the elderly in retirement communities...dressed in all black...
After they finish kicking their kittens...and u know old folk...they have a lot of kittens...
After they finish kicking their kittens...and u know old folk...they have a lot of kittens...
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by go99 05/03/13, 07:07 pm
Master Bates wrote:KixR4kidz wrote:Does Rase play DT Scott soon?
SDL schedule says they play twice.
I see whats going on here. It's a conspiracy and the man is trying to hold Scott and Rase down
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by soccercircus 05/03/13, 07:43 pm
Master Bates wrote:KixR4kidz wrote:Does Rase play DT Scott soon?
SDL schedule says they play twice.
Should be interesting match, have they met up previously in a tournament or season play? And Rase meets up with Dalglish next weekend and Solar "stackthebox" Kenny not too soon after.
Rase can truly claim the top spot with no debate with a few age-pure wins. Or 1 loss, or even 2, can set them back a couple notches. I say the probable wins come against Kenny, which btw, SK has a double header that day, including Dalglish, ouch! JK must of p'd off the SDL commissioner some how! Oh, and Rase will secure at least one win against DT.
Any other Rase predictions for the next few weeks? Let's get some real soccer debate going, other than FBR debates.
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by EPL Fan 05/03/13, 07:47 pm
go99 wrote:Master Bates wrote:KixR4kidz wrote:Does Rase play DT Scott soon?
SDL schedule says they play twice.
I see whats going on here. It's a conspiracy and the man is trying to hold Scott and Rase down
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Guest 05/03/13, 08:01 pm
seamusdog wrote:Sorry, I suppose I should explain. I am a professor by trade and can often get "overly analytical." The fact that this involved my daughter's team piqued my interest and got me to look behind the numbers. I'm not at all upset. I'm just being that sometimes annoying professor guy, wanting folks to explain and justify their work rather than sitting back and accepting that it's just one ranking of 9 year old girls.
Please don't take it as an attack. Just chalk it up to intellectual curiosity.
No offense at all, I'm pretty sure that I've had far more annoying professors and customers over the years (although you are quickly moving up the list
).At the risk of causing severe nausea to the majority of the '04 forum readers, I am preparing a little "peek behind the curtain" that will explain the movement from last week to this week of Fever and the 5 teams that jumped them.
Not saying that you'll like it, but it will explain the numbers.
Gonna take me a little bit to get it into a logical format and post it, but it's on its way...
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Re: '04 FBR Rankings - 03-05-13
by Soccer Po Boy 05/03/13, 08:13 pm
soccercircus wrote:Master Bates wrote:KixR4kidz wrote:Does Rase play DT Scott soon?
SDL schedule says they play twice.
Should be interesting match, have they met up previously in a tournament or season play? And Rase meets up with Dalglish next weekend and Solar "stackthebox" Kenny not too soon after.
Rase can truly claim the top spot with no debate with a few age-pure wins. Or 1 loss, or even 2, can set them back a couple notches. I say the probable wins come against Kenny, which btw, SK has a double header that day, including Dalglish, ouch! JK must of p'd off the SDL commissioner some how! Oh, and Rase will secure at least one win against DT.
Any other Rase predictions for the next few weeks? Let's get some real soccer debate going, other than FBR debates.
You obviously haven't seen RASE play. "Secure one win against DT" ????? Dude, go watch some of these teams play before you come with all of this talk.
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