Re: '04 Girls FBR Rankings - 05-07-13

by Son_ofa_Pitch 07/05/13, 11:14 pm

Hard to follow this one:

#73 NTX Striker '04 Blue Sanchez; jumps 8 spots up after going; 0-3, 0 goals for and 34 goals against
after playing the #2, #3, & #4 ranked teams.

So its best to play higher ranked teams and lose big and get a big bust to your ranking spot???

by go99 07/05/13, 11:19 pm

actually it is the historical data that they use to predict and track how and when a storm comes in. Historical data is always used to track and predict future results. Is it 100% no of course not but it does have better results than emotion, feeling and the eyeball test. So you might not believe in science and statistics but the rest of the world runs on them. Now I challenge you to come up with better rankings that consistently hold up over time. I haven't seen one but time to throw your hat in the ring and challenge BWG and his FBR's

by FriscoSoccer2004 07/05/13, 11:21 pm

PDub wrote:Hard to follow this one:

#73 NTX Striker '04 Blue Sanchez; jumps 8 spots up after going; 0-3, 0 goals for and 34 goals against
after playing the #2, #3, & #4 ranked teams.

So its best to play higher ranked teams and lose big and get a big bust to your ranking spot???

Coach courage pays off in the rankings... But the team may implode from his stupidity...

by Soccer Po Boy 07/05/13, 11:22 pm

go99 wrote:actually it is the historical data that they use to predict and track how and when a storm comes in. Historical data is always used to track and predict future results. Is it 100% no of course not but it does have better results than emotion, feeling and the eyeball test. So you might not believe in science and statistics but the rest of the world runs on them. Now I challenge you to come up with better rankings that consistently hold up over time. I haven't seen one but time to throw your hat in the ring and challenge BWG and his FBR's

C'mon Go, you know that would take a bunch of time and effort. It's much easier to just gripe and complain about this one. Keep it up BW.

by FriscoSoccer2004 07/05/13, 11:23 pm

go99 wrote:actually it is the historical data that they use to predict and track how and when a storm comes in. Historical data is always used to track and predict future results. Is it 100% no of course not but it does have better results than emotion, feeling and the eyeball test. So you might not believe in science and statistics but the rest of the world runs on them. Now I challenge you to come up with better rankings that consistently hold up over time. I haven't seen one but time to throw your hat in the ring and challenge BWG and his FBR's

Not to mention insurance lives and breathes by historical data...

by Son_ofa_Pitch 07/05/13, 11:27 pm

Soccer Po Boy wrote:
go99 wrote:actually it is the historical data that they use to predict and track how and when a storm comes in. Historical data is always used to track and predict future results. Is it 100% no of course not but it does have better results than emotion, feeling and the eyeball test. So you might not believe in science and statistics but the rest of the world runs on them. Now I challenge you to come up with better rankings that consistently hold up over time. I haven't seen one but time to throw your hat in the ring and challenge BWG and his FBR's

C'mon Go, you know that would take a bunch of time and effort. It's much easier to just gripe and conplain about this one. Keep it up BW.

I agree. Its similar to the saying - "You may hate a lot of shizz about America, but you wouldn't like to live any place else!"

by Guest 08/05/13, 12:23 am

The Real Decoy wrote:Don't point to historical data and say that's the alpha and omega.

Talk to the people who actually watch the games. #39 TFC crushed #31 Solar Gold 5-2 and it was lucky to be that close -- a team that was ranked #19 at the start of the season.

Time will tell. And to keep saying "but the last 6 months leading up to Lake Highlands..." shouldn't that be assumed because everything has worked itself out by that time?

Tell you what. To keep this friendly, save this particular ranking and if 10 or more of these teams (in the top 20) are ranked within 2 places of where they are now come Jan 1 2014, I will buy you dinner. And no cheating.

You heard it here!

No thanks. You and I have been going back and forth on this in public and in private for something like 5-6 months. At this point, it's clear to me to neither of us is going to convince the other. So, I'm done defending it to you. Agree to disagree.

I see no reason to change anything that I'm doing with FBR. I'm going to continue to publish as I have been, and please feel free to exercise your right to comment on the rankings as you see fit.

The system is based on data, and as such, I will always fall back on data to explain the output, whether or not you, or anyone else agrees or disagrees with it in the end.

by Lamps8 08/05/13, 07:51 am

So what happens when a team disbands and the girls scatter?

by go99 08/05/13, 08:10 am

bwgophers wrote:
The Real Decoy wrote:Don't point to historical data and say that's the alpha and omega.

Talk to the people who actually watch the games. #39 TFC crushed #31 Solar Gold 5-2 and it was lucky to be that close -- a team that was ranked #19 at the start of the season.

Time will tell. And to keep saying "but the last 6 months leading up to Lake Highlands..." shouldn't that be assumed because everything has worked itself out by that time?

Tell you what. To keep this friendly, save this particular ranking and if 10 or more of these teams (in the top 20) are ranked within 2 places of where they are now come Jan 1 2014, I will buy you dinner. And no cheating.

You heard it here!

No thanks. You and I have been going back and forth on this in public and in private for something like 5-6 months. At this point, it's clear to me to neither of us is going to convince the other. So, I'm done defending it to you. Agree to disagree.

I see no reason to change anything that I'm doing with FBR. I'm going to continue to publish as I have been, and please feel free to exercise your right to comment on the rankings as you see fit.

The system is based on data, and as such, I will always fall back on data to explain the output, whether or not you, or anyone else agrees or disagrees with it in the end.

by Anarchy 08/05/13, 08:16 am

Lamps8 wrote:So what happens when a team disbands and the girls scatter?

Then you begin to see new teams all of sudden worried about rankings. With new profiles of course.

by Just Curious 08/05/13, 08:23 am

and I thought the 03 parents were crazy....

by Guest 08/05/13, 08:53 am

Lmao....poboy...smh
I'm convinced....

by db10 08/05/13, 10:23 am

Hypothetical using the ranking formula what would happen if:

1. a new team formed and joined SDL P but when 1-8?

2. a new team formed joined SDL 1 or 2 and went .500, but ended up beating some top clubs in tournaments along the way?

Where would the team get ranked in each scenario?
Without history would this new team get more credit for the SOS or more credit for beating the top clubs even though it could be seen as a "one off"

Not an arguement, or critique, just simply wondering how the formula would handle these.

by Guest 08/05/13, 10:46 am

But what happens when you beat a team by 8 points total in 2 games then lose to a team that lost to a team that you beat twice in a week by 8 points total? Just shows how people who find scenarios to uplift or downplay another team because they are -----made.

by 10sDad 08/05/13, 10:51 am

There is no way statistically to account for each scenario, like guest playing or player movement. A team may receive an artificial "bump" in the rankings if they have a few stud guest players for a good tournament. A team may be bumped down due to a few stud player defections. Or worse yet, a team can be bumped down if a couple studs are on a girl scout campout and the team drops a game.
My point is that this is a historical compilation of data. It means nothing in regards to what team will take the field...but by averaging past performance, it can give you a rough indication of how they have performed in the past...

by Guest 08/05/13, 10:53 am

No chance I can come up with a better system. And we all can agree and at some point have said theseare 90% solid. Just pointing out the threwe blemishes on this one. Can't defend the mistakes to make this a 100%, flawless system.

Anyone pick up on what I just did there?

by Soccer Po Boy 08/05/13, 10:54 am

kixR4Adults2 wrote:But what happens when you beat a team by 8 points total in 2 games then lose to a team that lost to a team that you beat twice in a week by 8 points total? Just shows how people who find scenarios to uplift or downplay another team because they are -----made.

It shows you are dealing with 9 year old girls.

by go99 08/05/13, 10:58 am

Okay BWG but what happens if you use 2 guest players that beat the team that you lost too by 2 goal and you used the dalglish sweeper? But the aggregate score times the number of combine meetings between the 4 teams of concurrent schedules plus SOS divided by goal differential comes up +/- pi x alpha of the combined FBR of those team? scratch

by Guest 08/05/13, 11:02 am

Soccer Po Boy wrote:
kixR4Adults2 wrote:But what happens when you beat a team by 8 points total in 2 games then lose to a team that lost to a team that you beat twice in a week by 8 points total? Just shows how people who find scenarios to uplift or downplay another team because they are -----made.

It shows you are dealing with 9 year old girls.

Exactly...

by Son_ofa_Pitch 08/05/13, 11:04 am

db10 wrote:Hypothetical using the ranking formula what would happen if:

1. a new team formed and joined SDL P but when 1-8?

2. a new team formed joined SDL 1 or 2 and went .500, but ended up beating some top clubs in tournaments along the way?

Where would the team get ranked in each scenario?
Without history would this new team get more credit for the SOS or more credit for beating the top clubs even though it could be seen as a "one off"

Not an arguement, or critique, just simply wondering how the formula would handle these.

Your scenario fits the mold of Both FCD Teams that played in TGPL (Premier and Predator). No history but yet they played in TGPL and are both top 20 teams (one at #10)?? I guess over the next few months, it will all play out..

by go99 08/05/13, 11:11 am

yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW Evil or Very Mad

. weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

by Soccer Po Boy 08/05/13, 11:15 am

go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

But until you guys beat "the people's champ" I think most will question your greatness.

by Guest 08/05/13, 11:16 am

go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

Does 04Rase and 03Rase ever scrimmage?

by Guest 08/05/13, 11:19 am

Soccer Po Boy wrote:
go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

But until you guys beat "the people's champ" I think most will question your greatness.

Lmao...I try not to use vulgarity on the boards....funny guy you are poboy not funny haha funny.....see slingblade

by go99 08/05/13, 11:22 am

after this past weekend looks like the "peoples champ" will have to put in a little more work handling the rest of the 04's. Couldn't handle the tactical genious of king kenni king

and LFS who were thrashed by Dalglish. I would say those top 3 are there together does spirit want to join the party? And still holding my seat on the Scott bandwagon but I S#!T YOU NOT. I WILL GET OFF AT THE NEXT STOP IF HE DOESNT PLAY HIS TEAM IN AN ACTUAL F@#KING TOURNAMENT Mad

by go99 08/05/13, 11:32 am

kixR4Adults2 wrote:
go99 wrote:yep it plays out over time. RASE started the season in like 7th or 9th or something. I mean there were tears at practice. A talking too and stern wag of the finger at LW . weeping and gnashing of teeth at blue sky. But we recovered and did okay. We refused to let THE MAN (BWG) and his obviously flawed, biased, corrupt FBR keep us down.

Does 04Rase and 03Rase ever scrimmage?

We have played them in some tournament and it has always been close. I think we should scrimmage them more. I think our style of play is a little better and they are without a doubt more athletic than us. I think more scrimmages would help both teams. Allow us to play under extreme pressure and allow them to focus on possesion and ballmovement and not have worry about the athletic side.

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