06 FBR Top 10 Teaser

FBR Teaser

• Teaser Top 10 based on recent data
  
• Official Full '06 FBR will be released Wednesday Oct. 2nd.
  
• If your favorite team is not listed in the full FBR please see the next two items listed...
  

1. They have no game data vs. '06s reported
   
2. They do not have more than 3 games vs. 06s reported
   

There will be significant movement up and down the ranks as more game data is gathered and teams move up or down the tiers.  

This is all for fun.  There will be debate, disagreement, and probably some adult humor.  Please keep that in mind and lets have some fun with it.

There are a ton of 06 squads out there now and a good number that are just out side the Top 10 because of lack of more game data, but reports of some good play on the field is starting to make this age group a bit deeper than it had been looking... fun times ahead.


FBR '06 Top 10 Teaser


  1 Dallas Kicks Academy '06 Martinez   
  2 FC Dallas '06 Roach                  
  3 Solar Chelsea '06 McDaniel       
  4 Sting East '06 Chacon             
  5 Liverpool '06 Dalglish               
  6 TX Spirit '06 Weir                  
  7 SRSA '06 Missimo                  
  8 Sting West '06 Davis             
  9 Liverpool '06 Barnes              
 10 Dallas Rush '06 Mays

Seriously, you have McDaniel above Sting East Chacon, ughhhh No not even close. Not At all.... I can buy off on your choice for first, second I could argue both ways, but McDaniel? Maybe if you are voting on which coach will stomp off the field leaving their girls behind after a loss...

I believe that was like what 10 months ago...

Its all numbers. They have no losses, chacon has one vs. Roach. Doesn't chacon play roach in 2 weeks
.. Play the game and the numbers will reflect it.

Rockwall wrote:Seriously, you have McDaniel above Sting East Chacon, ughhhh No not even close. Not At all.... I can buy off on your choice for first, second I could argue both ways, but McDaniel?  Maybe if you are voting on which coach will stomp off the field leaving their girls behind after a loss...

So we are clear... I don't have anyone anywhere.. I put in the data... It spits out the rankings. I have seen McDaniel play and chacon very recently. I would say they are easily closer than you think. I won't say who I think is stronger.

I would argue in the negative on that and state that it is all in what variables you have populated and weighted in your model. I would place weir's team and rush above McDaniel any day of the week.

There are much bigger WTH's  here other than McDaniels at 3. (Which isn't far off by the way).
1. How does Kicks make the FBR? Other than a beatdown of Roach( who is wayyy too high imo), I haven't seen any scores for them against any other 06 teams.
2. And this is the big one...Barnes at 9??? Barnes has not lost a game to any 06 teams ever. Just ask their coach. How can they not be #1?

Kicks was only listed this one time as it is not the official fbr. I put out based on what's in the data base.

They will not be listed once the Oct. 2nd FBR comes out since they have less than 3 games vs 06s. Solar McDaniel will remain listed only based on the beat down of weak (no offense intended) 06 opponents at the Arlington labor day.

Not until we hit the end of the fall season will we see a "true" representation of the teams body of work. Barnes for example at this point in time only has 2 games in the database. A beat down of SRSA and a beat down of another. Barnes has no other games scheduled against Tier 1 or Tier 2 teams as they stand in FBR. That's affects the SOS. Conversely Chacon, Roach, Weir for example are playing teams in Tier 1 and Tier 2 every weekend. Stronger SOS.

Just needs more time and data... But will generate interesting discussion.

futbollove wrote:There are much bigger WTH's  here other than McDaniels at 3. (Which isn't far off by the way).
1. How does Kicks make the FBR? Other than a beatdown of Roach( who is wayyy too high imo), I haven't seen any scores for them against any other 06 teams.
2. And this is the big one...Barnes at 9??? Barnes has not lost a game to any 06 teams ever. Just ask their coach. How can they not be #1?

 

Rockwall wrote:I would argue in the negative on that and state that it is all in what variables you have populated and weighted in your model.  I would place weir's team and rush above McDaniel any day of the week.

You are correct in that the rankings are based on the variables entered. Strength of schedule, wins, losses, wins and losses of opponents and common opponents, etc...

This is the forumula BW (the dark arts master and several others) developed over the last several years. I have not and will not be tinkering with that formula.

There will most always be disagreement, may also occasionally have data based anamolies, but they will work themself out over time. Not until the end of the fall season will we see a "true" refelction of all teams and their body of work.

Goth Right wrote:

futbollove wrote:There are much bigger WTH's  here other than McDaniels at 3. (Which isn't far off by the way).
1. How does Kicks make the FBR? Other than a beatdown of Roach( who is wayyy too high imo), I haven't seen any scores for them against any other 06 teams.
2. And this is the big one...Barnes at 9??? Barnes has not lost a game to any 06 teams ever. Just ask their coach. How can they not be #1?

A Wolf will be howling soon with that ranking

My buddy Wolf has been around long enough to know how it works. Is LP Barnes a top 5 team on the field, I would think most would agree that is a yes. On paper, based on data and opponents they are taking a bit of a beating though right now.

Relax people it's just U8

As one of the "founding fathers" of FBR, allow me to interject for a moment and explain a bit about the "philosophy" of FBR (or at least my philosophy of FBR)...

Obviously, the intent is to try and get something as accurate as possible, and with FBR, produce a ranking that can be defended based on the actual game data.

However, no ranking system is perfect, and all ranking systems have some sort of built-in bias based on exactly how you are weighing different criteria. In the case of FBR, it's how you choose to weigh different parts of the formula (i.e. Win-Loss vs. Margin of Victory vs. Strength of Schedule, weighting factors assigned to different ranking tiers, etc.). Borussia has not changed any of the settings that were settled on and locked down back in 2011. He is just applying them to the '06 game data.

Also, the intent with FBR was never to crown any sort of "champion". It's intent (at least from my standpoint) was to provide a generally accurate assessment of the relative strength of teams within an age group. The primary benefit being that a team coach/manager or a league/tournament director could use FBR as a reference for finding/setting up league divisions or tournament brackets that provide an appropriate level of competition to foster development.

General rules... team's ranked within 5 spots of each other in FBR would be expected to play a very competitive game, often decided by <2 goal margin, and no one would really be surprised if either team won the game. Team's ranked 5-10 spots apart in FBR would still be expected to play a competitive game, often decided by <2 goal margin, but in a large majority of the time (>60-70%), the higher ranked team will win the game. Teams ranked >10 spots apart in FBR will often have lopsided games decided by >2 goal margin, and it is infrequent (<10-20% of the time) that the lower ranked team manages a draw or a win.

The obvious added side benefit is that FBR provides endless hours of free forum entertainment in the form of discussion, debate, and sometimes outright outrage, over a team being ranked one spot higher than another.

The thing is, if you are upset or arguing over whether one team is ranked above another, or a team is ranked a few spots too high or too low, then you are really missing the point of these rankings, and why they are published.

Finally, FBR provides ZERO insight into the quality, or style of play of any particular team, only how competitive that team tends to be on an average basis.

In short:

Love FBR? Great! Enjoy it!
Hate FBR? Great! Ignore it!

Couldn't have said it any better.

The depth of the age group is growing, let's take stock in that and enjoy the ride...

BW,
The 06 group already feels slighted   as you abandoned our  little group after years of anticipated conflicts and name calling. I for one have been compiling numerous excuses,insults, and yo mama jokes in anticipation of the 06 FBR. Frankly, it is the only reason I am still a member of TXSoccer.
Borussia, only GOD knows why, has graciously, or perhaps foolishly, chosen to take the reins and step into the firing lines which is the seat of the FBR Administrator. Or soccer god, not sure what the title is.
So in short, you can't come on here with your fancy stats, figures, and logic defending you little brother or the FBR. He has to man-up and defend it himself. BWGOPHERS does not exist in the 06 dojo does he? NO SENSI!!!

This student of FBR is still learning, but has no problem defending it.

Only one thing needs to be said at this point.

IT NEEDS MORE DATA

I could hold off an not publish anything until the first of Christmas if that would appeas the masses? haha

Call me dumb, bored, have a god complex... I was looking forward to the disucssion when the time came.. BW wasnt going to, so I figured what the heck... Its not like Im one to shy away from discussion, comments, or scare... so we shall have some fun with this, but keep it to its purest form as it was developed.

Now back to the FBR,
1. Speaking of the Barnes beatdown, how does SRSA stay top ten with that loss?
2. How do the various leagues factor into SOS? With everyone playing all over the place, I would imagine it's difficult to consider one league "tougher" than the other(s), thus complicating assigning teams as tier 1, tier 2, etc.

futbollove wrote:BW,
The 06 group already feels slighted   as you abandoned our  little group after years of anticipated conflicts and name calling. I for one have been compiling numerous excuses,insults, and yo mama jokes in anticipation of the 06 FBR. Frankly, it is the only reason I am still a member of TXSoccer.
Borussia, only GOD knows why, has graciously, or perhaps foolishly, chosen to take the reins and step into the firing lines which is the seat of the FBR Administrator. Or soccer god, not sure what the title is.
So in short, you can't come on here with your fancy stats, figures, and logic defending you little brother or the FBR. He has to man-up and defend it himself. BWGOPHERS does not exist in the 06 dojo does he? NO SENSI!!!

That's o.k.  If you've been paying attention to a different thread, I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

Now that I have stated my FBR philosophy for all in the '06 world to see, I am cutting my umbilical cord to Borussia.  It's all his to defend from here on out.  Hopefully he's taken good notes.  If not, may God have mercy on his soul, because the forum surely won't...

Borussia wrote:This student of FBR is still learning, but has no problem defending it.  

Only one thing needs to be said at this point.

IT NEEDS MORE DATA

I could hold off an not publish anything until the first of Christmas if that would appeas the masses? haha

Call me dumb, bored, have a god complex... I was looking forward to the disucssion when the time came.. BW wasnt going to, so I figured what the heck...  Its not like Im one to shy away from discussion, comments, or scare... so we shall have some fun with this, but keep it to its purest form as it was developed.  

I don't mean to take it out on you. It's just that I've spent countless hours coming up with tons of material, most of it rhyming with or referencing gopher. And now it's useless. I feel like all of those hours and hard work was for nothing. Unless... you are willing to change your name to brgophers? Otherwise it throws the delivery all off. If not, then I've got to come up with some new material.

futbollove wrote:Now back to the FBR,
1. Speaking of the Barnes beatdown, how does SRSA stay top ten with that loss?
2. How do the various leagues factor into SOS? With everyone playing all over the place, I would imagine it's difficult to consider one league "tougher" than the other(s), thus complicating assigning teams as tier 1, tier 2, etc.

1. I would need to play with hypotheticals in the FBR, but I would venture to say that SRSA and barnes will continue to take a hit on SOS as the season goes on. SRSA is riding on a loss to Barnes who is assigned to Tier 1 based on known historical data.

2. At this point the various leagues do not factor. I grouped Tier 1 on the known and really not much argued top 5. Tier 2 is based on teams that showed in recent tournament play a seperation from Tier 2 and a win versus a tier 1. Tier 3 is now any squad that has a win in the book. tier 4 is teams with zero wins. As tier 3 teams continue to win they will be bumped up and assigned based tier and cross tier play. somewhat of a crap shoot right now with the unknown squads. Most any team that has been in existence prior to the end of spring I have seen play or know of, so it helped, and i did take a look at past league and tournament play.

more data makes this easier to sort out.

bwgophers wrote:

futbollove wrote:BW,
The 06 group already feels slighted   as you abandoned our  little group after years of anticipated conflicts and name calling. I for one have been compiling numerous excuses,insults, and yo mama jokes in anticipation of the 06 FBR. Frankly, it is the only reason I am still a member of TXSoccer.
Borussia, only GOD knows why, has graciously, or perhaps foolishly, chosen to take the reins and step into the firing lines which is the seat of the FBR Administrator. Or soccer god, not sure what the title is.
So in short, you can't come on here with your fancy stats, figures, and logic defending you little brother or the FBR. He has to man-up and defend it himself. BWGOPHERS does not exist in the 06 dojo does he? NO SENSI!!!

That's o.k.  If you've been paying attention to a different thread, I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

Now that I have stated my FBR philosophy for all in the '06 world to see, I am cutting my umbilical cord to Borussia.  It's all his to defend from here on out.  Hopefully he's taken good notes.  If not, may God have mercy on his soul, because the forum surely won't...

Yes BW your ignorance of the 07 world is obvious. You do not understand the 07 group- it is likely the greatest class to come out of NTX in years. As you have seen on some posts- the skills within this group would rival select teams. I understand how in the past it would not be very meaningful to rank 6 & 7 year olds as development should be the focus, but this group is pretty advanced.  

bwgophers wrote:
... I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

 
For the record...wasn't me....

boilerjoe_96 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
... I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

 
For the record...wasn't me....

Correct Joe not you....  I think the person BW was referring to writes novels for a living

bigtex wrote:

boilerjoe_96 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
... I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

 
For the record...wasn't me....

Correct Joe not you....     I think the person BW was referring to writes novels for a living

and is the reason I wont be doing FBR for the 07s...  

Borussia wrote:

bigtex wrote:

boilerjoe_96 wrote:

bwgophers wrote:
... I've got an '07 parent ready to burn a stuffed gopher in effigy because I told them even I wasn't crazy enough to pay attention to scores from games played by their precious little 6 & 7 yr old Mia's, Marta's, Abby's, Alex's, and Hope's, and that I have thus dissed and insulted their mere existence in NTX academy.   

 
For the record...wasn't me....

Correct Joe not you....     I think the person BW was referring to writes novels for a living

and is the reason I wont be doing FBR for the 07s...  

BigTex is good with numbers... I hear he is interested in doing the rankings for 07s.

have at it brother. Best thicken the skin now.