Re: '04 League Scores 4/5 thru 4/6

by Guest 09/04/14, 02:34 pm

I wouldn't unless LW was over there

by Soccer Po Boy 09/04/14, 02:36 pm

go99 wrote:I think it would be hilarious for an "unknown" team to be in qualifying. For a team to wake up in the morning with the thought of a cake walk bracket to all of a sudden find out "Wait...that team looks like rase"

Who really knows what RASE looks like these days? Besides The Dalglish crew, I'm sure they still wait around after practice to get autographs.

by GrandTXSoccer 09/04/14, 02:37 pm

The odds of RASE not being seeded #1 are slim to none. The folks doing the seeding have a good idea who the top teams are every year. If some folks want to go digging through old posts I'm pretty sure BWG does a comparison between the FBR and the LH's seedings. I think they both hit at a fairly high % of teams seeded in the top 20 making LH's DI and in the Top 30 making LH's DIII.

There's always going to be some unique cases where teams that are outside the Top 30 making DI but they aren't all that common and it's not necessarily a good thing. If I remember correctly, in the 03's there were only two teams that were seeded much higher than what the FBR indicated and I think in both instances the FBR was much more accurate to where there seeding should have been.

The whole thing is a total crap shoot and I'm sure there's some political posturing involved in the whole thing. However those two teams that benefited the most from improved seeds were independent teams or from clubs with a very small presence in NTX. If anything independents and small clubs seem to have benefited the most from the LH's committee. Plus you have no idea how many teams are going to sign up so it's next to impossible to figure out how the teams would actually snake through the seedings. As it stands right now you'd have RASE squared off with the likes of someone like Sting West Davis, Dallas Kicks, and then Cosmos Black. So short of there being a couple of major seeding issues if you are a Top 10 FBR team when it comes out for the last time in the middle of July I really wouldn't be worried about anything. Heck if you are in the Top 20 you still have something like a 85% chance of making LH's.

by Guest 09/04/14, 02:42 pm

Sorry...we need to re-evaluate this select thing if we have to pay NBA money for Developmental League games...LH or bust!!

Is that shallow or petty?

by Guest 09/04/14, 02:46 pm

10sDad wrote:So...BW...you are a stats guy... a couple questions...

1. You stated that "adjustments" are made to the seeding to insure that big club teams don't have to play sister teams...does that put small club or independent teams at a disadvantage?

No. You're talking about moving a team 1 spot in the seeding to place a team in a different bracket to address this.

2. You stated that tournaments after signing day COMBINED with "expert opinions" determine the seeding. Since some of these small clubs and independent teams are not very politically connected...does that put them at a disadvantage?

I don't think so, and actually, if I go back and look at the data, I would say the data suggests that the opposite is actually true... The largest "positive" seeding discrepancy (QT seed higher than FBR rank) in each of the past 3 years has been an independent/small club team (Diamonds '01 #16 seed vs #28 FBR Rank, FC Premier '02 - not FC Dallas Premier, FC Premier - #15 seed vs. #28 FBR Rank, AYSES '03 #20 seed vs #35 FBR rank). On the other side, at least one "big club" team has had one of the larger "negative" seeding discrepancies (FC Dallas '01 - #35 seed vs. #26 FBR Rank, LP '02 Thompson - #32 seed vs. #18 FBR Rank, FC Dallas '03 South Blue - #25 seed vs. #18 FBR Rank)

I just think its too easy for the well connected big clubs to protect their own in this situation. Granted, I am not talking about teams like the Mustangs or SRFC - they have earned their spots in the top 15...I am talking a bit farther down, like a friendly seeding (weaker 2nd weekend group) could help a Sting/FCD/Texans/LP team get into D3 on points over an independent team who was placed with tougher competition the second weekend.

Again, the data doesn't support this. Case in point...

Last year, if the week 1 results played out according to seeding, you would have had the following bracket in week #2 with one of these 4 teams guaranteed a spot in the D1 Supergroup, and one of these teams guaranteed a spot in D3.

Team (QT Seed/FBR)
AYSES '03 (20/35)
Mustangs '03 (21/30)
Warriors '03 (34/37)
FWFC '03 White (35/28)

The week 1 brackets actually didn't play out to form, and what you ended up with in week #2 was:

Team (QT Seed/FBR)
Solar Chelsea '03 (32/41)
Odyssey '03 (33/32)
Warriors '03 (34/37)
FWFC '03 White (35/28)

With Warriors winning this week #2 bracket and playing in D1 at U11. Solar Chelsea and Odyssey each got D3 spots. According to the QT seeding, NONE of these teams should have even made LHGCL, and the 2 original teams that should have made LHGCL according to the seeding (AYSES and Mustangs), are small club teams.

(By the way, Warriors '03 is currently in last place in the D1 Supergroup, with a W-D-L record of 1-0-16, 2 GF, 66 GA.)

by SD69 09/04/14, 02:55 pm

How many teams that you had making LH D1 or D3 did not? I know you have already checked this out. If not, don't bother, it's not that important. I just didn't want to take the time to look it up.

by Guest 09/04/14, 03:09 pm

soccerdad1969 wrote:How many teams that you had making LH D1 or D3 did not? I know you have already checked this out. If not, don't bother, it's not that important. I just didn't want to take the time to look it up.

Here's the summary for the past 3 years:

'04 League Scores 4/5 thru 4/6 - Page 9 _01_0310

by GrandTXSoccer 09/04/14, 03:12 pm

I think when I saw those numbers last year I pretty much became a believer in the FBR. Now once you get all the teams playing in the same league things start to change but up until that time the FBR is pretty darn accurate.

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