05 LHQT bracket analysis

First off, I genuflect to BW Gophers' final (say it isn't so!) FBR by getting 41/46 (90%) within 2 seeds of the LHQT seeding.  If you pick stocks too, sir, I'd like to see your portfolio!

Second, here are some observations from the bracket:

Highest Seed on Upset Alert:
==> FCD Elite.  Sting Parsons is used to Plat competition and I am still not convinced FCD Elite can score goals.  Could come down to a 0-0 draw and the goal differential tiebreaker could favor Parsons.

Team With the Most Legitimate Beef:
==> Athletic Dallas.  Not a meteoric fall from grace, but somewhat punitive based on a weak weekend in Tut Gold B. They were #16 one month ago.

Team That Should be Thanking Their Lucky Stars:
==> Sting Scarfone.  Not that playing Rush will be fun and fruitful for them, but getting a Top 20 seed after winning only one match of their last 6, they should count their lucky stars.

Team Most Likely to Be #1 Overall Seed for Round 2:
==> Mustangs.  They can score in a hurry...and often.  Not enough to overtake FWFC White, but enough to lock up pole position for Round 2.

Team Most Likely to Be #1 in D3:
==> NTFC Green.  Their goal scoring drought is coming at the worst time possible.

@nortexmaker I think you are dead on, however would be extremely surprised to see Parsons beat FCD Elite...Especially with loses to FCD White and NTFC Black this last weekend. With that said, if you had to play FCD Elite, now is the time to do it. Not sure if they have had enough time to adjust to the move to FCD, and going through an unfortunate slump...Elite is a good team, and think they will pull through no problem though.

Agree FCD Elite should be fine...but not sure there is a higher potential upset in the first 10 seeds.

If history repeats itself, there will be a surprise or two the first weekend-- based on just what you were saying -- one team slumping while their opponent is riding a streak.

And, if that did happen to a FCD Elite-caliber team, they would undoubtedly come back Round 2 and still get into D1. Lightening wouldn't strike twice in the same place!

Stop talking about it! You are going to jinx these teams!  We need good vibes for ALL teams this weekend

nortexmaker wrote:Agree FCD Elite should be fine...but not sure there is a higher potential upset in the first 10 seeds.

If history repeats itself, there will be a surprise or two the first weekend-- based on just what you were saying -- one team slumping while their opponent is riding a streak.

And, if that did happen to a FCD Elite-caliber team, they would undoubtedly come back Round 2 and still get into D1.  Lightening wouldn't strike twice in the same place!

Other possible top 10 upset I could see is FCD Premier having a hard time against NTFC Black. Black had a good showing this weekend (tying Scarfone and beating Parsons), and Premier took a loss to Sting East. If Premier isn't on their game, they could get caught.

I think it is quite possible that Nortex did not see Athletic Dallas play this past weekend.

Watched second half of their Parsons game.  I had it as the Gold B game to watch.  0-0 draw.  Did not think they were out of their league vs. now #19 Parsons.

What say you, Keeper?

"Gold B -
overall comment:  after getting bruised up in UAL Plat, Sting Scarfone might find parity here
Game to Watch:  Athletic Dallas v Sting Parsons"

Scarfone Comment - You are very correct about "luck to stay in the top 20 after the last 6 games". The truth is that team just lost half its girls in the last few months and found some new talents that are still trying to find their place. Scarfone dominated the time of possession and shots on goal all weekend. In fact, Scarfone only had 2 goals against them all weekend and they were both PK's that were gifts to the opponents. 1-0 1-1 0-0 1-1 The D is strong and they will put in the work to fix the goal scoring. The shots were there, but close is only used in "horseshoes and hand grenades".

I watched some of those gifts. They will come after you no doubt. However if you push someone down in box it will get called. Even by the refs this weekend who did not seem to care about fouls. Which is fine, sometimes you have to let the game play.
Nortex you still have to be kidding me about your predictions. They played to a 0-0 tie in a game to watch and got hammered for the tournament. They barely crossed midfield from what most people tell me. Possibly the most over ranked team on the board right now. Possibly.

Keeper, I am not sure losing 0-0 to #19 Parsons, 0-1 to #18 Scarfone and 0-2 to #15 Mayes is what I would call 'hammered'....but I will give you time of possession was skewed big time in the game I saw. We will see if they come back slugging or they continue to free fall down to PPL.

Of course I am not saying that they were not good at one time. Because they were. If you look at the bracket they also lost to an FCD team 3-1. That would make it 6 GA and 1 GF. That is in some regard hammered. Especially if you take into account time of possession as you say you also saw.

I will agree with Keep.  Atheltic had a chance at DI before they were decimated by defections but now I cannot see it.  I am not positive it works out for Scarfone either.  Dominating possession and finishing middle of the bracket does not help in qualifying.  

But King TUT is prep so lets see what happens this week.

Scarfone's bunch was about as physical of a group as I saw all weekend. And, not just their defenders around the box...their forwards graduated from the Dennis Rodman school of soccer.

Nortex.....That I might just have to agree with you on. If they can learn to do it under the rules, they might have something there. But at some point every team has to score or they will be gone.

Precisely....and that's my very point re FCD Elite.....they are having problems finding the back of the net. They have a very disciplined defense, good sidelines, chemistry, etc....but that does not necessarily translate to Ws.

I expect they will figure things out sooner than later as that is a group that has been playing together since baby carriages.

nortexmaker wrote:First off, I genuflect to BW Gophers' final (say it isn't so!) FBR by getting 41/46 (90%) within 2 seeds of the LHQT seeding.  If you pick stocks too, sir, I'd like to see your portfolio!

Thanks, but my measuring stick for FBR has never been the QT seeding, it's always been the QT results.

nortexmaker wrote:Team Most Likely to Be #1 Overall Seed for Round 2:
==> Mustangs.  They can score in a hurry...and often.  Not enough to overtake FWFC White, but enough to lock up pole position for Round 2.

According to my sources, they will use the same methodology to populate the week 2 brackets that they used with the '00's-'03's (when only the bracket winners qualified for D1 in week 1 and the rest of the D1 spots were filled in week 2).  That methodology is based on the bracket results from week 1, not total points.  Based on that methodology, the week 2 brackets will be formed as follows:



Where L2 = Week 1 2nd place finisher from Bracket L, K2 = Week 1 2nd place finisher from Bracket K, etc.
It is possible that some of the #3/#4 seeds may get shuffled in order to avoid rematches from week 1 of QT.

THx for the clarification on Round 2 bracketing, BW. That being the case, here is my update:

Team Most Likely to Be #1 Overall Seed for Round 2:
==> Sting North Blue. Fever has a couple wings that can flat out fly and they will be the difference in this one, despite Sting's typically-stingy defense.

nortexmaker wrote:Precisely....and that's my very point re FCD Elite.....they are having problems finding the back of the net.  They have a very disciplined defense, good sidelines, chemistry, etc....but that does not necessarily translate to Ws.

I expect they will figure things out sooner than later as that is a group that has been playing together since baby carriages.

Sure FCD Elite didn't score any goals and have seemed to struggle doing it for a while but there weren't may goals scored by any of the Plat A teams all weekend.  LP Elite won the bracket scoring 3 goals (2 against Sting Diaz on Sunday), Sting Diaz scored 2 goals, and Solar East scored only 1 in 3 games.

Fair point about the lack of goal scoring in Plat A last weekend.

Looking over a longer time horizon (say April to the present), FCD Elite (aka Gerrard, aka LP Premier) has scored 0 or 1 goals per game 88% of the time (12 out of the last 17 games)....and one of the two the multi-goal games was against USA Soccer Academy.

The data doesn't lie...

What is your issue with this team? You have been on this forum for the last several days... Get a life dude!

Nothing against this team at all...in fact, I said in a prior post that they have a lot going for them and will likely figure things out. Sorry if I struck a nerve with you, Smancy Fants.

nortexmaker wrote:Fair point about the lack of goal scoring in Plat A last weekend.

Looking over a longer time horizon (say April to the present), FCD Elite (aka Gerrard, aka LP Premier) has scored 0 or 1 goals per game 88% of the time (12 out of the last 17 games)....and one of the two the multi-goal games was against USA Soccer Academy.

The data doesn't lie...

12 out of 17 is not 88%.
70% maybe.

sorry, typo....it is 2 out of the last 17 (88%). good catch!

nortexmaker wrote:typo....it is 2 out of the last 17 (88%).

Or 15 out of 17.  But who cares.  Your point is made.

jsullivan81 wrote:

nortexmaker wrote:Fair point about the lack of goal scoring in Plat A last weekend.

Looking over a longer time horizon (say April to the present), FCD Elite (aka Gerrard, aka LP Premier) has scored 0 or 1 goals per game 88% of the time (12 out of the last 17 games)....and one of the two the multi-goal games was against USA Soccer Academy.

The data doesn't lie...

12 out of 17 is not 88%.
70% maybe.

If a train leaves Kansas City headed to Dallas at 12:00 and travels at 70 mph, While another train leaves shreveport at 11:00 and travels at 60 mph.....which one will get there first?