FBR09 Rankings September 18th, 2017

Updated 09 FBR as of 9/18/17. Only 09 teams with 3 or more games played since 3/19/17 are included in the FBR published rankings. All games in the U9 leagues and tournaments that "publish results" are included.

Also, ranking points are derived from who you play and their tier(not your own tier) and, how well the teams you play do.  As always regulation scores are used for FBR, not OT and no PKs that determine game result(if known).  FBR is presented as W/L/T not W/T/L.  This FBR is the sole representation of FBR09,  any and all complaints(and compliments) should be directed to FBR09.  These rankings use the same software and criteria as with all prior year FBRs.

Feel free to PM or email if you think there is an error with your team or if you have any questions.  GotSoccer is generally used to determine team name/coach/club, please message me of any recent changes.

Wow!! movement in the top 4. How much longer will rush stay number one?

For those who have played the top Rush team, it's hard to see them falling off top spot anytime soon. I know the 08g play and boys league play don't contribute to the FBR, but I imagine they'll play top 09 talent in some tourneys, right? Either way, there's no doubt they're a good example to hold out to all our DDs of what to strive for. The kids are 7 and 8 years old right now, so it will be interesting to see how everything evolves as more girls grow into the speed and aggression the Rush girls have right now.

soccergodntx wrote:Wow!! movement in the top 4.  How much longer will rush stay number one?

I don't think I understand how it works. My daughters team dropped 2 spots with 2 wins for 2 gold division games played added to the mix. We were in the top 5. Not that it really matters to me...just didn't expect to see us go down in the rankings.

They will get their chance since they are in the league with 3 of the top 4. Win those and see what happens.

melashbrew wrote:

soccergodntx wrote:Wow!! movement in the top 4.  How much longer will rush stay number one?

I don't think I understand how it works. My daughters team dropped 2 spots with 2 wins for 2 gold division games played added to the mix. We were in the top 5. Not that it really matters to me...just didn't expect to see us go down in the rankings.

What were those 2 'gold' teams ranked? Doesn't matter what league, what teams?

Don't forget a spring game or 2 was removed and will be every week as fall games are added.

boilerjoe_96 wrote:

melashbrew wrote:

soccergodntx wrote:Wow!! movement in the top 4.  How much longer will rush stay number one?

I don't think I understand how it works. My daughters team dropped 2 spots with 2 wins for 2 gold division games played added to the mix. We were in the top 5. Not that it really matters to me...just didn't expect to see us go down in the rankings.

What were those 2 'gold' teams ranked?  Doesn't matter what league, what teams?

Don't forget a spring game or 2 was removed and will be every week as fall games are added.

I wasn't being snarky... I thought by tier it meant the teams you play, as in your division which is why I said we were playing in the gold division. In my head two wins would make you go up....we didn't have any games removed, but I guess other teams did which made them go up and pass us. I think I got it now. No biggie...like I said, it really doesn't matter to me. I was just trying to understand how it works.

I also don't know the specific calculating formula, but I do believe more weight is given to beating teams in your own tier or higher. If a team beats a lower-tier team (even if in a gold division), like perhaps your DD's team did the past few weeks, while close competitors win over teams in same or higher tier, then it's possible for them to move past. The points are pretty close between No. 2 and No. 7, so it makes sense there could be some movement from week to week depending on who plays who. The old results removed from the spring could also have an effect, especially if against top-tier teams. And, because your DD's team is in a gold division and a top team, it stands to reason the other teams will be similarly affected when/if they beat the same two teams your DD's team did the past few weeks. Given that the FBR is all we have for some kind of hopefully quantitative comparison, it seems to be the best gauge of relative competition for academy teams. Should be interesting to see how it fluctuates this year and in the future.

Melashbrew, if your team is who I think it is, a big part of your drop came from the one team you have lost to. They had a loss added to their record and 3 big wins dropped off their record from February. This dropped them in the rankings and made you loss to a top team hurt you more than it did when their point total was higher. If the games in February had not dropped off, you probably would be in the same spot as the last update. I hope this helps in addition to the other explanations that have been given.

Any scores for today games

Most games that matter are on Sunday

Solar Covey with a huge win today... next 3 weeks will say a lot about this team.

What happened to all the sting teams?

Covey was a Sting team but they moved to Solar... there are no top Sting teams in the '09 age group... for now.

Covey hasn't played the top 3 yet, angelone, samba or Colvin

I'm not sure Solar Ortiz is still a team (no fall league play and no games since May). Texans Savage has merged into other Texans teams. Rush will drop from the ranks in another 6-8 weeks approximately. Rush plays Samba in a few weeks but that game is in an '08 league so not sure it counts. The '09 field is getting smaller.

Covey could lose to the top 3 but still be a legit top 5 team. PrimeTime Gold isn't as strong as it was in the spring with several silver teams playing Gold. With 15 teams, the top 3 don't even get to face each other.

I think they put too many teams in gold, should have done a silver A and Silver B. Looks like Covey will be a good team as well. The more competition the better it is for everyone.

ProphAC wrote:Melashbrew, if your team is who I think it is, a big part of your drop came from the one team you have lost to.  They had a loss added to their record and 3 big wins dropped off their record from February.  This dropped them in the rankings and made you loss to a top team hurt you more than it did when their point total was higher.  If the games in February had not dropped off, you probably would be in the same spot as the last update.  I hope this helps in addition to the other explanations that have been given.

This makes the most sense to me. I think I get it now. We won yesterday, so we will see what that does if anything. I think all of the other top 4 or 5 teams won their games as well, so who knows. We have lots of challenging games ahead of us, but I am proud of where our team is and their performance thus far.

Is margin of victory a part of the formula or is a win, a win, regardless of score?

Margin of victory is not a factor as far as I know

Yes, margin of victory (or defeat) is a factor.

Interesting.

Read at your own peril...

FBR uses 3 primary ranking criteria:

1)  Weighted Wins*
2)  Average Margin of Victory (MoV)
3)  Strength of Schedule (SoS)

*Weighted Wins is split into 2 sub-categories – Average Weighted Wins/Game Played (AWW), and Most Weighted Wins (MWW).  

AWW accounts for 40% of the final ranking calculation
MWW accounts for 10% of the final ranking calculation
MoV accounts for 20% of the final ranking calculation
SoS accounts for 30% of the final ranking calculation


Section I:  Weighted Wins and Weighted Losses:

Weighted Wins (WW) and Weighted Losses (WL) are used in the AWW, MWW and SoS calculations, and are at the heart of how FBR works.

We establish ranking Tiers in the FBR that give greater weighting to games played against stronger opponents.  Placement in the ranking tiers is based solely on actual game performance and is reviewed and adjusted where necessary on a frequent basis.  The "general" rule governing tier placement is an "80/20" rule.  A team should get a Win or Draw in >80% of their games against teams from a lower ranking tier, a Win or Draw in somewhere between 20-80% of their games against teams within their ranking tier, and a Win or Draw in <20% of their games against teams from a higher ranking tier.  The net result is that you should get grouping of teams of relatively similar strength in each tier.  A weighting factor is then assigned to each tier.  From empirical experience with a full year's worth of data on the '01's at U10, we determined that reducing the weighting factor by 50% in each successive tier works the best overall.

Current weighting factors are:
Tier 1 = 52
Tier 2 = 26
Tier 3 = 13
Tier 4 = 7**
Tier 5 = 3**
Tier 6 = 1**
**(can only assign whole #'s)

A win gets a team (1*Tier weighting factor) Weighted Wins (i.e. 52 WW for a W over a Tier 1 team, 26 WW for a W over a Tier 2 team, etc.) and 0 weighted losses (WL)
A draw gets a team (0.5 * Tier weighting factor) WW and (0.5 * (100-Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 26-24 WW-WL for a Tier 1 draw, 13-37 WW-WL for a Tier 2 draw, etc.)
A loss gets a team 0 WW and (1*(100-(Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 48 WL for a loss to a Tier 1 team, 74 WL for a loss to a Tier 2 team, etc.)

Section II: Average Weighted Wins per Game Played:

The first ranking criterion used is Avg WW.  This is simply a team’s total WW (as calculated using the method described above) divided by the total # of games they have played.  In other words, what is the average "strength" of their game results any time those girls lace up their cleats.

Section III:  Most Weighted Wins

This is simply the total # of Weighted Wins for a team.  It is used in the rankings to give credit to teams that step up and play tougher competition on a regular basis AND perform well in those games.  

For example, if you have 2 teams that have played roughly equal strength competition, but Team A is 16-0 while Team B is 8-0, Team A should get more credit as they have actually played the games and delivered the results.  Team B might go 8-0 over their next 8 games, but the actual probability of that happening is < 100 %.

Section IV: Average Margin of Victory:

Pure and simple...  (Total Goals Scored - Total goals allowed)/Total # of Games

Section V: Strength of Schedule:

Uses WW-WL record of a team's opponents AND the opponent's opponents.  Weighted 75% for opponent's cumulative WW-WL record, 25% for opponent's opponents cumulative WW-WL record. (You really need the FBR SW's database capability to keep track of all of this).

Section VI:  Calculating Final Ranking Points:

The ranking criteria values are calculated for each team as described in sections II-V.  For each criterion, the teams are listed and sorted from highest criteria total to lowest.  The team with the highest total in a particular criterion is assigned 100 points.  The ranking points for all other teams in that criteria are then calculated as a % of the top team’s total.

For example:

Team A has the highest total for Avg. WW = 50 WW/Game.
Team B has Avg. WW = 30 WW/Game

Team A gets 100 Ranking Points in the Avg WW category
Team B gets (30/50)*100 = 60 Ranking points in the Avg. WW category.

The ranking points for each criterion are then multiplied by the corresponding final ranking calculation weight for that criterion, and summed up to get a team's Total Ranking Points.

Again for example, let's say:

Team A = 100 points for Avg. WW, 100 points for Most WW, 90 points for MoV, 75 points for SoS
Team A Total Ranking Points = (100 * 0.4) + (100 * 0.1) + (90 * 0.2) + (75 * 0.3) = (40) + (10) + (18) + (22.5) = 90.5 points

Team B = 60 points for Avg. WW, 80 points for Most WW, 50 points for MoV, 100 points for SoS
Team B Total Ranking Points = (60 * 0.4) + (80 * 0.1) + (50 * 0.2) + (100 * 0.3) = (24) + (8 ) + (10) + (30) = 72 points

Teams are then sorted by total ranking points to determine final FBR ranking.

My brain just exploded

How does FBR account for games played out of state?