FBR09 Rankings April 9th, 2018

Sharonsoccer1 wrote:"Used to be" was a long time ago...when my 05 was about 7, so about 5 years ago?  Anyway, maybe it wasn't excel, but they did list a link that had what games the ranking was based upon.  I'm not crazy!  This did happen.  

Gotcha. I know a thing or two about FBR, but that was before my time. BWG must have gone above and beyond the call of duty for a while.

Easy enough to check gotsoccer vs the listed record, if something is missing PM FBR09, would be my suggestion.

this has all been such helpful info.

another question.. what exactly does FBR stand for

FootBall Rankulator. It's the name of the commercially available software package that is used. The software was designed to do College Football rankings back in the BCS era.

For those new to it, here's the verbatim description from BWGophers. He provided this description last September when folks inquired:

Read at your own peril...

FBR uses 3 primary ranking criteria:

1)  Weighted Wins*
2)  Average Margin of Victory (MoV)
3)  Strength of Schedule (SoS)

*Weighted Wins is split into 2 sub-categories – Average Weighted Wins/Game Played (AWW), and Most Weighted Wins (MWW).  

AWW accounts for 40% of the final ranking calculation
MWW accounts for 10% of the final ranking calculation
MoV accounts for 20% of the final ranking calculation
SoS accounts for 30% of the final ranking calculation


Section I:  Weighted Wins and Weighted Losses:

Weighted Wins (WW) and Weighted Losses (WL) are used in the AWW, MWW and SoS calculations, and are at the heart of how FBR works.

We establish ranking Tiers in the FBR that give greater weighting to games played against stronger opponents.  Placement in the ranking tiers is based solely on actual game performance and is reviewed and adjusted where necessary on a frequent basis.  The "general" rule governing tier placement is an "80/20" rule.  A team should get a Win or Draw in >80% of their games against teams from a lower ranking tier, a Win or Draw in somewhere between 20-80% of their games against teams within their ranking tier, and a Win or Draw in <20% of their games against teams from a higher ranking tier.  The net result is that you should get grouping of teams of relatively similar strength in each tier.  A weighting factor is then assigned to each tier.  From empirical experience with a full year's worth of data on the '01's at U10, we determined that reducing the weighting factor by 50% in each successive tier works the best overall.

Current weighting factors are:
Tier 1 = 52
Tier 2 = 26
Tier 3 = 13
Tier 4 = 7**
Tier 5 = 3**
Tier 6 = 1**
**(can only assign whole #'s)

A win gets a team (1*Tier weighting factor) Weighted Wins (i.e. 52 WW for a W over a Tier 1 team, 26 WW for a W over a Tier 2 team, etc.) and 0 weighted losses (WL)
A draw gets a team (0.5 * Tier weighting factor) WW and (0.5 * (100-Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 26-24 WW-WL for a Tier 1 draw, 13-37 WW-WL for a Tier 2 draw, etc.)
A loss gets a team 0 WW and (1*(100-(Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 48 WL for a loss to a Tier 1 team, 74 WL for a loss to a Tier 2 team, etc.)

Section II: Average Weighted Wins per Game Played:

The first ranking criterion used is Avg WW.  This is simply a team’s total WW (as calculated using the method described above) divided by the total # of games they have played.  In other words, what is the average "strength" of their game results any time those girls lace up their cleats.

Section III:  Most Weighted Wins

This is simply the total # of Weighted Wins for a team.  It is used in the rankings to give credit to teams that step up and play tougher competition on a regular basis AND perform well in those games.  

For example, if you have 2 teams that have played roughly equal strength competition, but Team A is 16-0 while Team B is 8-0, Team A should get more credit as they have actually played the games and delivered the results.  Team B might go 8-0 over their next 8 games, but the actual probability of that happening is < 100 %.

Section IV: Average Margin of Victory:

Pure and simple...  (Total Goals Scored - Total goals allowed)/Total # of Games

Section V: Strength of Schedule:

Uses WW-WL record of a team's opponents AND the opponent's opponents.  Weighted 75% for opponent's cumulative WW-WL record, 25% for opponent's opponents cumulative WW-WL record. (You really need the FBR SW's database capability to keep track of all of this).

Section VI:  Calculating Final Ranking Points:

The ranking criteria values are calculated for each team as described in sections II-V.  For each criterion, the teams are listed and sorted from highest criteria total to lowest.  The team with the highest total in a particular criterion is assigned 100 points.  The ranking points for all other teams in that criteria are then calculated as a % of the top team’s total.

For example:

Team A has the highest total for Avg. WW = 50 WW/Game.
Team B has Avg. WW = 30 WW/Game

Team A gets 100 Ranking Points in the Avg WW category
Team B gets (30/50)*100 = 60 Ranking points in the Avg. WW category.

The ranking points for each criterion are then multiplied by the corresponding final ranking calculation weight for that criterion, and summed up to get a team's Total Ranking Points.

Again for example, let's say:

Team A = 100 points for Avg. WW, 100 points for Most WW, 90 points for MoV, 75 points for SoS
Team A Total Ranking Points = (100 * 0.4) + (100 * 0.1) + (90 * 0.2) + (75 * 0.3) = (40) + (10) + (18) + (22.5) = 90.5 points

Team B = 60 points for Avg. WW, 80 points for Most WW, 50 points for MoV, 100 points for SoS
Team B Total Ranking Points = (60 * 0.4) + (80 * 0.1) + (50 * 0.2) + (100 * 0.3) = (24) + (8 ) + (10) + (30) = 72 points

Teams are then sorted by total ranking points to determine final FBR ranking.

In the next FBR posting i will add the Arlington Academy League Games. There are about 6 weeks worth of games that will be added. Sorry guys

FBR09

Thank you for the rankings! I enjoy watching the teams grow.