5A Playoff Regional Predictions - Girls

Kenshi Dave wrote:Just for Grins ... The Facts on Size (9-12) and Soccer finish in district are:


Plano E ...... 6,171 (#6)
Plano ........ 5,240 (#7)
Allen ........ 5,049 (#5)
Plano W ...... 4,190 (#3)
Lewisville ... 3,573 #8
Flower Mound.. 3,170 (#1)
Marcus....... 3,107 (#2)
Hebron ....... 2,857 (#4)

In the example of our district, the whiny guy's theory clearly doesn't hold out.

The 3 smallest schools finished in the top 4 (and made the tournament) and the three largest schools finished in the bottom 4 (and did not make the tournament).

Since school size is measured 9-12, the opening of 9th grade centers has no bearing in the discussion.

A few facts for all you naysayers:



School Attendance Per UIL
PLANO HS 5,314
PLANO WEST HS 4,944
LEWISVILLE HEBRON 3,019
LEWISVILLE MARCUS HS 3,196


Number of State Soccer Champions Since 1986
Plano ISD 12
Lewisville ISD 4


Conference Attendance Cutoff Numbers
2010-2011 & 2011-2012 Alignments
5A 2065 & up
4A 990 to 2064
3A 430 to 989
2A 200 to 429
1A 199 & below


After factoring in demographics, clearly size matters. If school size doesn't matter explain the 12 vs. 4 titles for school districts with similar demographics? It must be the superior soccer coaching in PISD over the last 25 years! LOL!!!!!! No matter how much the big, bad wolves huff and puff, you can't blow that the above house of facts down. See you next year in the playoffs and in our darn district again in two years..........

Onetenguy wrote:

Kenshi Dave wrote:Just for Grins ... The Facts on Size (9-12) and Soccer finish in district are:


Plano E ...... 6,171 (#6)
Plano ........ 5,240 (#7)
Allen ........ 5,049 (#5)
Plano W ...... 4,190 (#3)
Lewisville ... 3,573 #8
Flower Mound.. 3,170 (#1)
Marcus....... 3,107 (#2)
Hebron ....... 2,857 (#4)

In the example of our district, the whiny guy's theory clearly doesn't hold out.

The 3 smallest schools finished in the top 4 (and made the tournament) and the three largest schools finished in the bottom 4 (and did not make the tournament).

Since school size is measured 9-12, the opening of 9th grade centers has no bearing in the discussion.

A few facts for all you naysayers:



School Attendance Per UIL
PLANO HS 5,314
PLANO WEST HS 4,944
LEWISVILLE HEBRON 3,019
LEWISVILLE MARCUS HS 3,196


Number of State Soccer Champions Since 1986
Plano ISD 12
Lewisville ISD 4


Conference Attendance Cutoff Numbers
2010-2011 & 2011-2012 Alignments
5A 2065 & up
4A 990 to 2064
3A 430 to 989
2A 200 to 429
1A 199 & below


After factoring in demographics, clearly size matters. If school size doesn't matter explain the 12 vs. 4 titles for school districts with similar demographics? It must be the superior soccer coaching in PISD over the last 25 years! LOL!!!!!! No matter how much the big, bad wolves huff and puff, you can't blow that the above house of facts down. See you next year in the playoffs and in our darn district again in two years..........

You just won't give up, will you? You've stewed on this one for a while.

While you continue your whining, consider this:

Marcus beat Plano West and lost to Plano West in district play. In the region championship, they were actually up 2-0 at the half. Does it sound like they can't compete?

Flower Mound beat and tied Plano West in district play. They lost to Plano West in the regional quarterfinal, but the game was much, much closer than the score would appear.

Both of these teams have proven they can beat big bad Plano West. In addition, both of them beat Allen, which some might call a pretty big school.

You denigrate both of these teams with your garbage about large schools. You may not believe they can do well against the big schools, but they sure seem to think they can, and they went out and proved it.

I suspect perhaps you're lacking in some area yourself, and that's why you've become obsessed with size.

Probably unfair to go back to 1986 for your analysis ... folks in Flower Mound and Lewisville didn't have running water or electricity until after 1995.


One room school-houses were strategically placed every 5 miles and schools played 6 man football and 3v3 soccer. Girls sports programs didn't start until 2002.


Of course the sparse inhabitants were hard-scrable fightin' farmers and none of them were big freakin' whining babies.

Kenshi Dave wrote:Probably unfair to go back to 1986 for your analysis ... folks in Flower Mound and Lewisville didn't have running water or electricity until after 1995.


One room school-houses were strategically placed every 5 miles and schools played 6 man football and 3v3 soccer. Girls sports programs didn't start until 2002.


Of course the sparse inhabitants were hard-scrable fightin' farmers and none of them were big freakin' whining babies.

KD, KD, KD... We had running water in November of 93' and had girls sports long before 2002, they were known as fights behind Ag and Woodshop! Still on septic though...

I'm more impressed by the fact that Plano West has won all the titles for Plano ISD since 2000, with multiple coaches. Maybe they just have better players?

Onetenguy wrote:

Kenshi Dave wrote:Just for Grins ... The Facts on Size (9-12) and Soccer finish in district are:


Plano E ...... 6,171 (#6)
Plano ........ 5,240 (#7)
Allen ........ 5,049 (#5)
Plano W ...... 4,190 (#3)
Lewisville ... 3,573 #8
Flower Mound.. 3,170 (#1)
Marcus....... 3,107 (#2)
Hebron ....... 2,857 (#4)

In the example of our district, the whiny guy's theory clearly doesn't hold out.

The 3 smallest schools finished in the top 4 (and made the tournament) and the three largest schools finished in the bottom 4 (and did not make the tournament).

Since school size is measured 9-12, the opening of 9th grade centers has no bearing in the discussion.

A few facts for all you naysayers:



School Attendance Per UIL
PLANO HS 5,314
PLANO WEST HS 4,944
LEWISVILLE HEBRON 3,019
LEWISVILLE MARCUS HS 3,196


Number of State Soccer Champions Since 1986
Plano ISD 12
Lewisville ISD 4


Conference Attendance Cutoff Numbers
2010-2011 & 2011-2012 Alignments
5A 2065 & up
4A 990 to 2064
3A 430 to 989
2A 200 to 429
1A 199 & below


After factoring in demographics, clearly size matters. If school size doesn't matter explain the 12 vs. 4 titles for school districts with similar demographics? It must be the superior soccer coaching in PISD over the last 25 years! LOL!!!!!! No matter how much the big, bad wolves huff and puff, you can't blow that the above house of facts down. See you next year in the playoffs and in our darn district again in two years..........

Grapevine High School is just barely larger than the 4A cutoff and yet were very competetive with Plano West. The other possibly more important variable is disposable income per household. Grapevine, Marcus, Carroll, HP, Colleyville Heritage etc. make up for lower enrollment with money. Plano West has size and money (although per household probably slightly less than some of the others)Grapevine Started 9 ECNL players on Varsity (7 vs Plano West) Carroll best I coud tell had 8. Plano West 15. As Unc pointed out earlier if you don't Play for an ECNL or Div 1 team then getting playing time on any of theses teams is difficult. In other sports the size issue has come up and the UIL has and is considering a 6A designation for the State's biggest schools.

Ferris wrote:Apparently, the UIL doesn't adhere to the matchups they put out on their playoff brackets??? The original brackets (which seemed to make some sense so as to avoid a semifinal between just North Texas teams or South Texas teams) showed the winner of Region 1 playing the winner of Region 3. Now, the state tournament schedule is showing Region 1 (Plano West) set to play Region 2 (Klein Oak) and Region 3 vs. Region 4 in the semis.

If I were Plano West or Klein Oak, I would be extremely upset (although I don't know that it would do any good). West and Oak are clearly the best two teams of the 4 and shouldn't be playing until the final. How does this happen and why? Anyone?

P.S. It looks like they did exactly the opposite in Class 4-A with the same result..(switched from pairings on original brackets...Region 1 vs. 2 and Region 3 vs. 4...to where now it is Region 2 vs. 3 (Again...the best 2 teams in Highland Park and Waco Midway) and Region 1 vs. 4. I don't get it...

don't hold me to this, but i think that the UIL re-seeds at state to avoid the area teams playing against each other in the semifinals. in your example, Klein Oak and Katy Seven Lakes are both Houston-area schools even though are in different UIL Regions (II and III). They re-seeded so it's wasn't Houston v. Houston in the semifinals. in 4A, they've separated the 2 closest schools by splitting HP and Byron Nelson.

IIRC, they did this exact same thing last year to benefit Dallas-area schools with Denton Ryan and Frisco Wakeland coming out of Region I and II respectively. those schools are less than 30 miles apart from each other.

again, i don't know if that is the exact reason, but it's at least logical....then again, it might have something to do with the selection of referees as i know they try to avoid having referees from the same region as either of the 2 teams playing in a game.

twotone wrote:

Ferris wrote:Apparently, the UIL doesn't adhere to the matchups they put out on their playoff brackets??? The original brackets (which seemed to make some sense so as to avoid a semifinal between just North Texas teams or South Texas teams) showed the winner of Region 1 playing the winner of Region 3. Now, the state tournament schedule is showing Region 1 (Plano West) set to play Region 2 (Klein Oak) and Region 3 vs. Region 4 in the semis.

If I were Plano West or Klein Oak, I would be extremely upset (although I don't know that it would do any good). West and Oak are clearly the best two teams of the 4 and shouldn't be playing until the final. How does this happen and why? Anyone?

P.S. It looks like they did exactly the opposite in Class 4-A with the same result..(switched from pairings on original brackets...Region 1 vs. 2 and Region 3 vs. 4...to where now it is Region 2 vs. 3 (Again...the best 2 teams in Highland Park and Waco Midway) and Region 1 vs. 4. I don't get it...

don't hold me to this, but i think that the UIL re-seeds at state to avoid the area teams playing against each other in the semifinals. in your example, Klein Oak and Katy Seven Lakes are both Houston-area schools even though are in different UIL Regions (II and III). They re-seeded so it's wasn't Houston v. Houston in the semifinals. in 4A, they've separated the 2 closest schools by splitting HP and Byron Nelson.

IIRC, they did this exact same thing last year to benefit Dallas-area schools with Denton Ryan and Frisco Wakeland coming out of Region I and II respectively. those schools are less than 30 miles apart from each other.

again, i don't know if that is the exact reason, but it's at least logical....then again, it might have something to do with the selection of referees as i know they try to avoid having referees from the same region as either of the 2 teams playing in a game.

I guess I understand the potential to reseed, although I still think that doing so at this level after the majority of playoff games have already been played seems like someone having too much power of manipulation. It would seem better to simply set things up the best you could from the beginning (alignments & playoff brackets) and then letting the results play out like almost every other tournament. At the very least, it would seem like manipulation should lead to the two potentially "best" teams having the chance to play in the finals as opposed to in the semifinals, right?

The attempt to avoid regional matchups makes some sense on the 4-A side with Highland Park avoiding the need to play Byron Nelson in the semis. On the 5-A, that explanation still doesn't seem to work though as the original brackets showed Region 1 winner (West) playing winner of Region 3 (Seven Lakes). So why (arbitrarily) move from one Houston team (Seven Lakes) to another (Klein Oak)? Just seems very odd...no big conspiracy I'm sure, it just doesn't seem logical/predictable. I would think the UIL would want to make things as transparent as possible to avoid any accusation of impropriety/undue manipulation.

It's not about Plano West not playing Klein Oak or Seven Lakes....it's about Klein Oak (Houston) not playing Seven Lakes (Houston). it'd be the same if Westlake (Austin) were re-seeded to avoid playing Round Rock or Georgetown (Austin) or even Belton in the semis. It'd be the same if Corpus Christi Callahan were moved from facing Harlingen. the state is actually bigger the DFW, you know.


if it makes you feel better, they do it in basketball too. that way they can avoid a Houston Yates v Dallas Lincoln semifinal. but something tells me that if you don't win your semifinal game against whatever opponent you have, you can't be considered the best team in the state or a state champion. win the games and you'll get your glory.

twotone wrote:It's not about Plano West not playing Klein Oak or Seven Lakes....it's about Klein Oak (Houston) not playing Seven Lakes (Houston). it'd be the same if Westlake (Austin) were re-seeded to avoid playing Round Rock or Georgetown (Austin) or even Belton in the semis. It'd be the same if Corpus Christi Callahan were moved from facing Harlingen. the state is actually bigger the DFW, you know.


if it makes you feel better, they do it in basketball too. that way they can avoid a Houston Yates v Dallas Lincoln semifinal. but something tells me that if you don't win your semifinal game against whatever opponent you have, you can't be considered the best team in the state or a state champion. win the games and you'll get your glory.

I get that...and that was exactly my point. Originally it was set on the brackets as Plano West vs. Seven Lakes and Klein Oak vs. San Antonio Churchill. So why change and have Klein Oak play West instead of Seven Lakes??? Doesn't seem to accomplish anything...And yes, I do know that the state is bigger than just DFW...

I agree that you have to beat all comers to win state regardless of when...I'm just saying it doesn't seem logical to make the change from a published bracket, and if it affected me/my daughter's school, I would be miffed. As a somewhat unbiased observer of these games, it does seem unfortunate that the two best teams left (based on record and prior opponents) won't have the opportunity to meet in the final, but will instead have to play in the semis... just seemed odd to me.

well, based on records, the seeding should be like this:

1. Klein Oak - 25-1-1 most wins of teams left, fewest losses, and fewest ties
2. Katy 7 Lakes - 22-3-3 2nd most wins, 2nd most losses, 2nd most ties
3. Plano West - 21-3-4 3rd most wins, 2nd most losses, 3rd most ties
4. SA Churchill - 19-6-1 fewest wins, most losses, fewest ties

So, 1 v. 4 and 2 v. 3. I don't really see a problem with that at all. Plano West had 1 less win and 1 more tie in the same amount of games. You can try and argue strength of schedule but, in reality, its high school sports and nobody knows what's gonna happen from week to week. i mean, Rich Berkner boys were ranked #3 in the nation and they weren't that strong. its a guessing game. Katy plays Houston teams and PWest plays DFW teams. both have relatively strong schedule just based on being in strong soccer areas.

1. Highland Park - 26-1-2 best
2. Byron Nelson - 23-2-4 2nd best
3. Cedar Park - 21-3-3 3rd best
4. Waco Midway - 21-4-4 4th best

it's pretty obvious here if you use the same logic as above. HP is best. Nelson has more wins and fewer losses than 3 & 4. Cedar Park has fewer losses and ties than Midway. Midway has the fewest wins, most losses and most ties of all the teams left.

twotone wrote:well, based on records, the seeding should be like this:

1. Klein Oak - 25-1-1 most wins of teams left, fewest losses, and fewest ties
2. Katy 7 Lakes - 22-3-3 2nd most wins, 2nd most losses, 2nd most ties
3. Plano West - 21-3-4 3rd most wins, 2nd most losses, 3rd most ties
4. SA Churchill - 19-6-1 fewest wins, most losses, fewest ties

So, 1 v. 4 and 2 v. 3. I don't really see a problem with that at all. Plano West had 1 less win and 1 more tie in the same amount of games. You can try and argue strength of schedule but, in reality, its high school sports and nobody knows what's gonna happen from week to week. i mean, Rich Berkner boys were ranked #3 in the nation and they weren't that strong. its a guessing game. Katy plays Houston teams and PWest plays DFW teams. both have relatively strong schedule just based on being in strong soccer areas.

1. Highland Park - 26-1-2 best
2. Byron Nelson - 23-2-4 2nd best
3. Cedar Park - 21-3-3 3rd best
4. Waco Midway - 21-4-4 4th best

it's pretty obvious here if you use the same logic as above. HP is best. Nelson has more wins and fewer losses than 3 & 4. Cedar Park has fewer losses and ties than Midway. Midway has the fewest wins, most losses and most ties of all the teams left.

EUREKA!!!! I think you've cracked the code...that makes the most sense of anything so far and even seems to be based on unbiased data and likely a pre-set logic. I hadn't realized that Seven Lakes had a slightly better record than West. It's certainly a fair point re. difficulty assigning strength-of-schedule, etc. Thanks very much. Nice work.

For what it's worth I guess, I still believe West and Oak are the two top 5-A teams and Highland Park and Waco Midway are the two top 4-A teams. I think both West and Midway each got off to a slightly slower start and tied a few more games than they wanted to... Should be a fun weekend for the girls. Best of luck to all the teams left and to all the girls for a healthy event.

Kenshi Dave wrote:Probably unfair to go back to 1986 for your analysis ... folks in Flower Mound and Lewisville didn't have running water or electricity until after 1995.


One room school-houses were strategically placed every 5 miles and schools played 6 man football and 3v3 soccer. Girls sports programs didn't start until 2002.


Of course the sparse inhabitants were hard-scrable fightin' farmers and none of them were big freakin' whining babies.

Looks like I got under your skin.

THE FINAL WORD ........ PLANO HAS SUPERIOR TEAMS BECAUSE OF SUPERIOR NUMBERS!!!!!

Deep down you know that I'm right........ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz This argument is putting me to sleep.

Congrats to the the Wolves of Plano West for winning the state tournament, again, again, again, repeat as often as desired.

So I guess that explains all those football and basketball state championships ... oh yeah, ... that's right... not so much.

Honestly, you don't get under my skin. When you post, the feeling is more like a big slow softball pitch coming in over the plate ... the excitement of knowing I'm about to smack it over the fence.

Note: In addition to having an unfair advantage due to our vast size, Plano West (the super-huge district) returns 9 starters next year (unless ECNL bucks it).

Go PLANO WEST !!! ... already looking forward to next year ... you know, the automatic back-to-back state championship in girl's soccer and our 1st 5A football championship, simply because of our school size (UIL may not even go with a playoff ... just award it to us straight-up).

Congratulations Plano West. Nice Championship run!

Kenshi Dave wrote: Note: In addition to having an unfair advantage due to our vast size, Plano West (the super-huge district) returns 9 starters next year (unless ECNL bucks it).

No senior wants to play ECNL. Good luck to them if they think they're going to ban my dd from HS. It's too much fun.

Congrats on the championship, Dave. You big school cheater.

Thanks man ... totally agree on the "fun" thing and I think there is something about playing for your HS that can't be duplicated in select.

Today's DMN mentions what the Academy Ban has done to the boy's HS program in North Texas.

Personally, I would welcome a ban for girls next year. It would give me an excuse not to pay club dues, as there is no question at this point that my (rising) senior would choose hs over club.

Congrats to Plano West-great year.

If are paying my dd's club dues and want to ban hs, that's their perogative. As long as I am paying, it's mine.

Uncle Numanga wrote:If are paying my dd's club dues and want to ban hs, that's their perogative. As long as I am paying, it's mine.

+1

Uncle Numanga wrote:If are paying my dd's club dues and want to ban hs, that's their perogative. As long as I am paying, it's mine.

School Attendance Per UIL
PLANO HS 5,314
PLANO WEST HS 4,944
LEWISVILLE HEBRON 3,019
LEWISVILLE MARCUS HS 3,196

Just an outsider looking in, but if the Mansfield ISD had 1 or 2 schools with 3500-5300 students instead of 4 with 2000 each. No One up north would touch them. Take the 5-7 best from 3-4 current playoff teams and it wouldn't be a contest. MISD may be the hotbed of quality girls HS soccer. It's just spread out some more can play

badcramp wrote:School Attendance Per UIL
PLANO HS 5,314
PLANO WEST HS 4,944
LEWISVILLE HEBRON 3,019
LEWISVILLE MARCUS HS 3,196

Just an outsider looking in, but if the Mansfield ISD had 1 or 2 schools with 3500-5300 students instead of 4 with 2000 each. No One up north would touch them. Take the 5-7 best from 3-4 current playoff teams and it wouldn't be a contest. MISD may be the hotbed of quality girls HS soccer. It's just spread out some more can play

Hot bed? Then MISD probably rocked against schools their size, say like Southlake Carroll right?

tongue in cheek

It is ironic that some schools can be twice the size of others and be in the same district. I think such would be obvious that the larger schools should be much better merely due to a larger pool of players.