'02 Girls Pre-LHGCL QT FBR Rankings

Anybody asking why Colvin went all the way out to Puma and played up when they could have stayed close to home and had competition here? What is the deal with that? Do they know something we don't know? It really looks like ducking to me.

Joan Of Arc wrote:Anybody asking why Colvin went all the way out to Puma and played up when they could have stayed close to home and had competition here? What is the deal with that? Do they know something we don't know? It really looks like ducking to me.

All this "ducking" talk regarding Colvin, FCD, etc. is idiotic. Seeding for qualifying is meaningless for the top teams. Every team already has a full roster. Every top team will get through next weekend with ease into D1. Seeding in D1 means nothing. Every team in D1 will play each team 1 time. What exactly are they ducking?

How can Dfeeters be top 10 with a 5-19 record? Please explain. They lost all of their games this weekend. They only scored 1 goal. No hate, just the facts.

Maybe because they are an ECNL club and they have to be Top 10 due to being an ECNL club...

Nooneaskedmebut wrote:How can Dfeeters be top 10 with a 5-19 record? Please explain. They lost all of their games this weekend. They only scored 1 goal. No hate, just the facts.

I am sure SOS plays a role in that. Plus playing and losing to higher ranked teams doesn't hurt you as bad as you are expected to loss to those teams.

It is SOS... I was just trying to make a funny.

Bierluva wrote:It is SOS... I was just trying to make a funny.

Oh I know you were Bierluva!

So how long until we see LH seeding results?

Nooneaskedmebut wrote:How can Dfeeters be top 10 with a 5-19 record? Please explain. They lost all of their games this weekend. They only scored 1 goal. No hate, just the facts.

If the rankings were based solely on this past weekend, they would probably be lower, but these are based on cumulative results since January. Since Jan, D'Feeters has the #2 SoS (FCD Premier is #1)

14 of those 19 losses are to the teams currently ranked #1-8. The other 5 are to Andro Red, Waco, Sting (2x), and Liverpool St. John.

They also have W's over Solar Red and Dynamo. The only team ranked below D'Feeters that has a W against a top 5 team is FCD South Red (1-0 W over Dynamo in Feb.)

All of the teams between 9-13 have warts of one sort or another. Based on how you slice the data, you could make a case for just about any order of those teams.

Should know brackets by Tuesday... schedules by Wednesday.

Bierluva wrote:Should know brackets by Tuesday... schedules by Wednesday.

Long 48hrs for us parents to see who we get slotted to play against this coming weekend.

Hey! It takes time to get all the input from all the coaches, "special, in the know" parents, and to receive those gifts in a brown bag slid under the table. (This is clearly a joke and no LHGCL board member was harmed in this comedic transgression).

Bierluva wrote:Hey! It takes time to get all the input from all the coaches, "special, in the know" parents, and to receive those gifts in a brown bag slid under the table. (This is clearly a joke and no LHGCL board member was harmed in this comedic transgression).

How do I become one of those "special, in the know" parents? Unfortunately I can't slide any brown paper bag gifts under the table as my debit card is screams NO MORE if I even look at it.

Is there a designated set for fields for the '02 QT Tourney or can it be all over the the LH's fields?

TatuYou wrote:Is there a designated set for fields for the '02 QT Tourney or can it be all over the the LH's fields?

was told at meeting.. UTD, Chin Chapel and possiblely Rail Road

LHD wrote:

Joan Of Arc wrote:Anybody asking why Colvin went all the way out to Puma and played up when they could have stayed close to home and had competition here? What is the deal with that? Do they know something we don't know? It really looks like ducking to me.

All this "ducking" talk regarding Colvin, FCD, etc. is idiotic. Seeding for qualifying is meaningless for the top teams. Every team already has a full roster. Every top team will get through next weekend with ease into D1. Seeding in D1 means nothing. Every team in D1 will play each team 1 time. What exactly are they ducking?

Original question was why the heck would Colvin drive all the way to other side of the metro when there was plenty of great competition here. You still did not answer you just bashed. It looks as though they did not want to play top 02's. FCD completely different situation.

Joan Of Arc wrote:

LHD wrote:

Joan Of Arc wrote:Anybody asking why Colvin went all the way out to Puma and played up when they could have stayed close to home and had competition here? What is the deal with that? Do they know something we don't know? It really looks like ducking to me.

All this "ducking" talk regarding Colvin, FCD, etc. is idiotic. Seeding for qualifying is meaningless for the top teams. Every team already has a full roster. Every top team will get through next weekend with ease into D1. Seeding in D1 means nothing. Every team in D1 will play each team 1 time. What exactly are they ducking?

Original question was why the heck would Colvin drive all the way to other side of the metro when there was plenty of great competition here. You still did not answer you just bashed. It looks as though they did not want to play top 02's. FCD completely different situation.

Looking at Puma Cup scores, looks like they did play 01 teams, and the same ones that DTS played. By the scores only, it appears they did not fare as well as DTS against the same 01 teams. Colvin 1-1-1, DTS 3-0 against same teams and went to the finals. Colvin is a Solar or Solca Red team right? The Solar Red teams are west side teams, Tarrant county teams, is Puma Cup closer for most of the Colvin players?

Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

soccerdad19 wrote:

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

I disagree. Many changes in last few months. Maybe not for 1-7, but 8-15 can be a toss-up, especially with changes.
Seeding does matter. Give #12 the #1 seed and see how much easier the path comes. Obviously, it doesn't work that way, so I get it. However, seeding makes all the difference in the world to #s 8-20.

Just my opinion. But once the seeds come out, yes it won't matter. You have to play what you're given.

pro16 wrote:

soccerdad19 wrote:

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

I disagree. Many changes in last few months. Maybe not for 1-7, but 8-15 can be a toss-up, especially with changes.
Seeding does matter. Give #12 the #1 seed and see how much easier the path comes. Obviously, it doesn't work that way, so I get it. However, seeding makes all the difference in the world to #s 8-20.

Just my opinion. But once the seeds come out, yes it won't matter. You have to play what you're given.

Completely agree on the importance of the seedings, seeding will definitely matter for the path of these teams, especially past the #7 seed or so. Probably more changes than I realize for some of these teams past #1-7, as you mentioned. I was really trying to say that Gophers program won't show much on one weekend of tourney games, 3-4 games, especially with limited common opponents. For games since signing, I don't think the #1 team, FCD Premier would even make the rankings since they played 01's this weekend. I was saying LHGCL committee will not be using Gophers FBR poll to seed the teams, so having Gophers revise it with only post signing results will not show anything and it won't matter. The seeds will be done by the committee based on a lot of input from many different sources.

I think Gophers is just giving us a final wrap up summary of how these teams sit after the 6 months leading up to QT.

I see what you meant now.
Thanks.

pro16 wrote:

soccerdad19 wrote:

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

I disagree. Many changes in last few months. Maybe not for 1-7, but 8-15 can be a toss-up, especially with changes.

Seeding does matter. Give #12 the #1 seed and see how much easier the path comes. Obviously, it doesn't work that way, so I get it. However, seeding makes all the difference in the world to #s 8-20.

Just my opinion. But once the seeds come out, yes it won't matter. You have to play what you're given.

I have considered it, but am sticking by my track record from last year at this point. We'll see how this year goes, but I'm pretty confident that I will hit my 90% accuracy prediction on QT Results this year. That's 90% of week 1 qualifiers correct, 90% of D1 qualifiers correct, and 90% of total LH qualifiers correct.

I do believe that looking back 4-6 months has strong validity in this type of ranking system. However, I have stated several times in the past that I would like to be able to implement a time-dependent weighting factor in FBR that would allow me to give a larger weight to more recent results. I've asked FBR for this feature, but they haven't delivered it yet.

bwgophers wrote:

pro16 wrote:

soccerdad19 wrote:

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

I disagree. Many changes in last few months. Maybe not for 1-7, but 8-15 can be a toss-up, especially with changes.

Seeding does matter. Give #12 the #1 seed and see how much easier the path comes. Obviously, it doesn't work that way, so I get it. However, seeding makes all the difference in the world to #s 8-20.

Just my opinion. But once the seeds come out, yes it won't matter. You have to play what you're given.

I have considered it, but am sticking by my track record from last year at this point. We'll see how this year goes, but I'm pretty confident that I will hit my 90% accuracy prediction on QT Results this year. That's 90% of week 1 qualifiers correct, 90% of D1 qualifiers correct, and 90% of total LH qualifiers correct.

I do believe that looking back 4-6 months has strong validity in this type of ranking system. However, I have stated several times in the past that I would like to be able to implement a time-dependent weighting factor in FBR that would allow me to give a larger weight to more recent results. I've asked FBR for this feature, but they haven't delivered it yet.

That would be a good tweek.