'02 Girls Pre-LHGCL QT FBR Rankings

bwgophers wrote:

pro16 wrote:

soccerdad19 wrote:

pro16 wrote:Mr. Gophers,

How far back are you calculating results? Have you considered shortening your time frames and accounting for "final" rosters vs. the pre-June/July teams that have turned over, added, dropped, and so forth?

Thanks for all you do.

Not much game data, one weekend of tournaments available for "final" rosters since July 1 signing day. 6 month history should give a pretty good estimate. I don't think most of the teams changed dramatically over the last few months. The seedings will be out tomorrow or the next day, and it won't matter anyway.

I disagree. Many changes in last few months. Maybe not for 1-7, but 8-15 can be a toss-up, especially with changes.

Seeding does matter. Give #12 the #1 seed and see how much easier the path comes. Obviously, it doesn't work that way, so I get it. However, seeding makes all the difference in the world to #s 8-20.

Just my opinion. But once the seeds come out, yes it won't matter. You have to play what you're given.

I have considered it, but am sticking by my track record from last year at this point. We'll see how this year goes, but I'm pretty confident that I will hit my 90% accuracy prediction on QT Results this year. That's 90% of week 1 qualifiers correct, 90% of D1 qualifiers correct, and 90% of total LH qualifiers correct.

I do believe that looking back 4-6 months has strong validity in this type of ranking system. However, I have stated several times in the past that I would like to be able to implement a time-dependent weighting factor in FBR that would allow me to give a larger weight to more recent results. I've asked FBR for this feature, but they haven't delivered it yet.