Updated FBR - 11/25/11

jen_nah wrote:

kickingrass wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

Guess Who wrote:
I fill in tier one it sould be

1.Webb
2.Higg
3.FCD
4.DT.South
5.Solor.Dynamo
6.DT.Bennett-
7.Liverpool
8.Fever-Red
9.Polaris
10.Feet

Has Polaris played any top-tier competition in recent months? I can't see putting them in tier one if they have not. I do congratulate the team for winning the Silver bracket at DTFF but I was told that they did not dominate either of the games that I had friends at. They simply competed well and were athletic, against Tier Two competitors all.

Polaris has tied or lost to Liverpool by 1 goal before the additional of late. Polaris with the current roster would beat Liverpool. Played DT south without additions to roster as well lost 3-0 late in game. Not sure Polaris would beat them but a close game it would be now. Played Vigil in dt festival with 6 Bennett players. Game was very even. I am sure Polaris will consider playing PT to see where they stand in spring.
Polaris is on the verge of tier 1 status. Time will tell.

This is your opinion and not one I would agree with. Glad your team has some great new additions but don't forget most of the top teams have had some great new additions to their squads as well. Like I said in a previous post LP has added to their squad in the past few weeks. The last time we matched in SDL we were also missing 2 of our forwards which makes a big difference.

Polaris is a great team that will go places but they would have a hard time against Dynamo which LP has beaten & tied this season. Polaris couldn't battle with Bennett the loss would be huge but LP has played Bennett (formally Glotz) while LP didn't win it was a very close game and teams were evenly matched. We played DTS and it was only a 1 goal difference where Polaris it was 3 and you didn't even score on them. When you matched DT Vigil back in Sept. you tied them 0-0 on the 11th then beat them 5-0 on the 17th but this month only pull a 1-0 win. The margin should have been bigger based on your past performance with not as strong team and Vigil using Bennett guest players this season.

Had to learn to crawl before we walked, we learned to walk before we ran, we are running now! learn, develop, improve, compete, one step at a time. We just want to move forward one step at a time and before we know it July will be here! Just remember it is a marathon not a sprint for these DD.

Guess Who wrote:

Soccerdad02 wrote:Searls beat Defeeters 3-0 in PT. Should be ahead in the poles.

Give us your reason why feet should drop and sting take that spot. Just based on one game or over-all record. Too bad Sting didnt enter the DT Tournament then we all could of seen what that have now.

From what I understand....Searls has picked up 3-4 new girls from top teams in the past month that weren't there during the PT game last month. Has the Defeeters picked up any players from a top team in the last month?? Could someone tell me the records between the two in PT.

PrimeTime TGPL Final Standings

Looks like Defeeters finished 9the and Sting 02 finished 6th in PT another reason they should be moved ahead of defeeters in the standings.

deepthoughts wrote:

Guess Who wrote:

Soccerdad02 wrote:Searls beat Defeeters 3-0 in PT. Should be ahead in the poles.

Give us your reason why feet should drop and sting take that spot. Just based on one game or over-all record. Too bad Sting didnt enter the DT Tournament then we all could of seen what that have now.

It seems that this one core aspect of FBR is so hard to communicate to everyone:

02Dad wrote:head-to-head results are unfortunately not considered.

The sooner everyone comes to grips with what it means to not have head-to-head factored into the software, the better. There are reasons that head-to-head is not in there.

I believe FBR's method, although confusing, is logical and better than just strict head-to-head. Lets say Polaris beats Higg, but then loses 6 games to all the other Big 7 teams. Should they be ranked ahead of Higg, especially if Higg beats or ties the rest of the Big 7? Of course not.

I don't know the rest of the Feet vs Searls evaluation but I would bet there is good reason that Feet are several slots above Searls at this point. And, if they are close enough to each other in the rankings, that means they will probably play a competitive game next time they meet. Do you (soccerdad02) feel Searls blew out a hapless Feet team?

I don't want to sound like I'm defending FBR. FBR is limited in many ways. But it helps to truly understand what it can and can't do, as it is. As soon as people do understand, they will realize that arguing who is number one is pretty much worthless because the tool is just not that accurate.

A little perspective from someone who spent way too much time doing this stuff for the ‘01’s…

NO ranking system is “perfect”. Not FBR, not Power Rankings, not human polls. They all have strengths, weaknesses, and different points of emphasis. Even when you combine all of these into a “BCS” style ranking, it still won’t be perfect.

Personally, I think the “accuracy” of FBR, and any of the other systems for that matter, is somewhere between deepthoughts’ “rusty machete” and his “laser scalpel”. The FBR ranking tiers are the “rusty machete”. However, there is still some further accuracy within the tiers as well.

We had tons of game data from the ‘01’s, and my guess is that game data from the ‘02’s would bear this out as well. What you will see is that IN GENERAL:

1) Games between teams within 5 ranking spots of one another will tend to be very competitive games (2 goal margin or less), and the lower ranked team coming out with a Win is not uncommon.

2) Games between teams ranked 5-10 spots from one another will tend to be competitive (again 2 goal margin or less in most cases), however, the higher ranked team will come out with a Win in a large majority of these games (>70%).

3) It will be very rare that a team ranked >10 spots below another will so much as manage a draw against the higher ranked opponent, and most games will have the higher ranked team winning by a margin >2 goals.

The biggest value of these rankings in my mind is for coaches to find leagues/tournaments that have an appropriate level of competition for their team. Also, for LDs and TDs to set up leagues/tourneys with an appropriate competitive balance. Most logical people don’t see any benefit in a team getting smoked by 4-5 goals every game, or a team smoking everyone else by 4-5 goals/game.

By the way, we did an evaluation of how each of the ’01 ranking systems (FBR, Power Rankings, Human Polls, and consolidated BCS) did at predicting the results of Lake Highlands QT. The results were a total wash. Each system got 8 out 11 1st weekend D1 qualifiers correct. Each system got 17 or 18 out of the 20 D1 teams correct. Each system got 27 or 28 of the 30 D1 + D3 qualifiers correct. So each of the systems were basically 90% accurate.

The bottom line is that just like deepthoughts said... if you are arguing or getting upset that a team is ranked a couple of spots too high or a couple of spots too low, or that Team A is ranked above or below Team B… You are wasting your time and energy.

kickingrass wrote:

jen_nah wrote:

kickingrass wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

Guess Who wrote:
I fill in tier one it sould be

1.Webb
2.Higg
3.FCD
4.DT.South
5.Solor.Dynamo
6.DT.Bennett-
7.Liverpool
8.Fever-Red
9.Polaris
10.Feet

Has Polaris played any top-tier competition in recent months? I can't see putting them in tier one if they have not. I do congratulate the team for winning the Silver bracket at DTFF but I was told that they did not dominate either of the games that I had friends at. They simply competed well and were athletic, against Tier Two competitors all.

Polaris has tied or lost to Liverpool by 1 goal before the additional of late. Polaris with the current roster would beat Liverpool. Played DT south without additions to roster as well lost 3-0 late in game. Not sure Polaris would beat them but a close game it would be now. Played Vigil in dt festival with 6 Bennett players. Game was very even. I am sure Polaris will consider playing PT to see where they stand in spring.
Polaris is on the verge of tier 1 status. Time will tell.

This is your opinion and not one I would agree with. Glad your team has some great new additions but don't forget most of the top teams have had some great new additions to their squads as well. Like I said in a previous post LP has added to their squad in the past few weeks. The last time we matched in SDL we were also missing 2 of our forwards which makes a big difference.

Polaris is a great team that will go places but they would have a hard time against Dynamo which LP has beaten & tied this season. Polaris couldn't battle with Bennett the loss would be huge but LP has played Bennett (formally Glotz) while LP didn't win it was a very close game and teams were evenly matched. We played DTS and it was only a 1 goal difference where Polaris it was 3 and you didn't even score on them. When you matched DT Vigil back in Sept. you tied them 0-0 on the 11th then beat them 5-0 on the 17th but this month only pull a 1-0 win. The margin should have been bigger based on your past performance with not as strong team and Vigil using Bennett guest players this season.

Had to learn to crawl before we walked, we learned to walk before we ran, we are running now! learn, develop, improve, compete, one step at a time. We just want to move forward one step at a time and before we know it July will be here! Just remember it is a marathon not a sprint for these DD.

I agree but please remember LP isn't a new team. Our team has been together for 3.5yrs now. Our core 8-9 players have been part of this team for longer than 2yrs. We have fought hard for where we are. For a small (size wise) team we hold our own.

I know your team is fairly new and given time will be a power house but don't knock another team that has proven they deserve their spot.

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

I don't plan on including 9v9 leagues. (The last 10 teams you listed)

Regarding the first set, how am I supposed to know TRC Elite is even an 02 team? For the other three, I will add their results to the system.

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

I don't plan on including 9v9 leagues. (The last 10 teams you listed)

Regarding the first set, how am I supposed to know TRC Elite is even an 02 team? For the other three, I will add their results to the system.

Also, you're rankings do not include results from the HUSA Turkey Shoot.

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

I don't plan on including 9v9 leagues. (The last 10 teams you listed)

Regarding the first set, how am I supposed to know TRC Elite is even an 02 team? For the other three, I will add their results to the system.

Also, you're rankings do not include results from the HUSA Turkey Shoot.

What is that? Never heard of it

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

I don't plan on including 9v9 leagues. (The last 10 teams you listed)

Regarding the first set, how am I supposed to know TRC Elite is even an 02 team? For the other three, I will add their results to the system.

Also, you're rankings do not include results from the HUSA Turkey Shoot.

What is that? Never heard of it

You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:For the purposes of the FBR software, there are four tiers.

As you can see the 5 teams in tier 1 are head and shoulders above the rest of the tiers with a combined record of 55-1.

Likewise tier 2 is 43-2-7 vs lower tiers.

Tier 3 is 36-0-6 vs tier 4.

And finally those in tier 4 are 0-50-6 vs all other teams/tiers above them.

--------------------------
Tier 1 has 5 teams.

Bennett, Higg, South, FCD, and SRSA

T1 vs T2 is 49-1
T1 vs T3 is 5-0
T1 vs T4 is 1-0


--------------------------
Tier 2 has 15 teams.

Feet,Renfro,Fever Red,Fever White,DT Vigil, LP Rangel,Polaris,Dynamo,Solar East,Solar Gio,Sting Searls,Sting East,Texas Spirit North,TFC Elite,Waco Lady Blast

T2 vs T1 is 1-49
T2 vs T3 is 30-2-7
T2 vs T4 is 13-0

--------------------------
Tier 3 has 16 teams.

Sting Parker,Cosmos, Divas,Dynasty,FCD Barakat,FCD Palmisano, FCD Kang, Galaxy SC, GSSC, International FC, Solar Jones,Solar Stark,Stephenville,Sting West,XLR8,TFC Larry

T3 vs T1 is 0-5
T3 vs T2 is 2-30-7
T3 vs T4 is 36-0-6

--------------------------
Tier 4 has 14 teams.

AFC,Crossroads, DTFW, Dolphins,FCD PTAK,FC PREMIER,Kernow,LP Dalglish,LP Thompson, LP Hansen, Sparta, Texas Lightning, Texas Thunder, TFC Angell/Wells

T4 vs T1 is 0-1
T4 vs T2 is 0-13
T4 vs T3 is 0-36-6

Your system does not include all teams competing in all leagues, i.e. PT.

TCR Elite
Odyssey 02G Blue
Texas Xtreme 02G
Cosmos 02

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G.pdf

Or these:

Fusion 02G Navy
DT 02G FTW (included as DTFW)
Southlake Saints 02G
Fever 02G Black
GSSC Thunder 02G North (may be included as GSSC)
GSSC Thunder 02G South (may be included as GSSC)
Fusion 02G White
Quest United Fireflies Blue
Quest United Fireflies White
Odyssey 02G White

http://www.primetimefiles.com/pdf/2011.SO.PTCL.Fall.Sun.U10G9V9.pdf

I don't plan on including 9v9 leagues. (The last 10 teams you listed)

Regarding the first set, how am I supposed to know TRC Elite is even an 02 team? For the other three, I will add their results to the system.

Also, you're rankings do not include results from the HUSA Turkey Shoot.

What is that? Never heard of it

You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.
http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Wow... good one. You got me there buddy.

/sigh

Longing4agame wrote:
You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Do you know what most people do? (instead of being a jerk like you)

They PM me and say "hey, 02Dad... here's a tournament you may not know about. Just wanted to let you know."

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:
You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Do you know what most people do? (instead of being a jerk like you)

They PM me and say "hey, 02Dad... here's a tournament you may not know about. Just wanted to let you know."

Didn't mean to come across as a jerk. It was intended as sarcasm. My apologies.

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:
You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Do you know what most people do? (instead of being a jerk like you)

They PM me and say "hey, 02Dad... here's a tournament you may not know about. Just wanted to let you know."

Didn't mean to come across as a jerk. It was intended as sarcasm. My apologies.

Apology accepted. And thanks for the link.

Looks like Waco Blast handled things easily in bracket play. 21 GF and 0 against.

I'll get these results added as well.

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:
You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Do you know what most people do? (instead of being a jerk like you)

They PM me and say "hey, 02Dad... here's a tournament you may not know about. Just wanted to let you know."

Didn't mean to come across as a jerk. It was intended as sarcasm. My apologies.

Apology accepted. And thanks for the link.

Looks like Waco Blast handled things easily in bracket play. 21 GF and 0 against.

I'll get these results added as well.

They were clearly the best team in the tournament. They probably should've played in a more competitive tournament that weekend. There were other options for sure.

If you bring these teams in and sting Parker moves down then it's really going to hit the fan.

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Longing4agame wrote:
You'd think soccer doesn't exist anywhere else except North Dallas.

http://www.husaturkeyshoot.com/

Nov 18-20

Do you know what most people do? (instead of being a jerk like you)

They PM me and say "hey, 02Dad... here's a tournament you may not know about. Just wanted to let you know."

Didn't mean to come across as a jerk. It was intended as sarcasm. My apologies.

Apology accepted. And thanks for the link.

Looks like Waco Blast handled things easily in bracket play. 21 GF and 0 against.

I'll get these results added as well.

They were clearly the best team in the tournament. They probably should've played in a more competitive tournament that weekend. There were other options for sure.

They seem to avoid the tough tournaments and go beat up on teams that are not even on this list to be ranked.

What about MyLittlePony FC from Paris Tx. Do you know were that is 02DAD LOL. We played in the RainBow Bright Tournmaent last week.

kickingrass wrote:They seem to avoid the tough tournaments and go beat up on teams that are not even on this list to be ranked.

Building confidence is a huge thing at this age, so winning any decent-sized tournament, whether on cruise control or not, does have value, especially if the coach finds ways to teach at the same time. The girls tend to have more time on the ball to think and make good decisions.

In the big scheme of the 10 year old universe, confidence is priceless.

My older kid played on a team that only played tougher opponents and the team invariably fell out of tourneys before making the finals. Several years later, the team seemed to be a bit too "OK" with failing to reach the finals. They seemed to expect that they were good, but not good enough to make the finals. I really wish they would have had some precious moments in the sun, winning a tournament or two, instead of always ending without a trophy competing in the Gold division of the bigger contests.

deepthoughts wrote:

kickingrass wrote:They seem to avoid the tough tournaments and go beat up on teams that are not even on this list to be ranked.

Building confidence is a huge thing at this age, so winning any decent-sized tournament, whether on cruise control or not, does have value, especially if the coach finds ways to teach at the same time. The girls tend to have more time on the ball to think and make good decisions.

In the big scheme of the 10 year old universe, confidence is priceless.

My older kid played on a team that only played tougher opponents and the team invariably fell out of tourneys before making the finals. Several years later, the team seemed to be a bit too "OK" with failing to reach the finals. They seemed to expect that they were good, but not good enough to make the finals. I really wish they would have had some precious moments in the sun, winning a tournament or two, instead of always ending without a trophy competing in the Gold division of the bigger contests.

How many time will they take the cake walk tournaments before they test themselves in a tougher tournament against like skilled teams,

GOALLLLL! wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

kickingrass wrote:They seem to avoid the tough tournaments and go beat up on teams that are not even on this list to be ranked.

Building confidence is a huge thing at this age, so winning any decent-sized tournament, whether on cruise control or not, does have value, especially if the coach finds ways to teach at the same time. The girls tend to have more time on the ball to think and make good decisions.

In the big scheme of the 10 year old universe, confidence is priceless.

My older kid played on a team that only played tougher opponents and the team invariably fell out of tourneys before making the finals. Several years later, the team seemed to be a bit too "OK" with failing to reach the finals. They seemed to expect that they were good, but not good enough to make the finals. I really wish they would have had some precious moments in the sun, winning a tournament or two, instead of always ending without a trophy competing in the Gold division of the bigger contests.

How many time will they take the cake walk tournaments before they test themselves in a tougher tournament against like skilled teams,

They cant play in the better tournamnts bcus their players ARE dt south players also wich is why they were in the cake walk tourne HUSA and not in PT or DT

sOUTH had their better players forward up top is waco blast alot of the other girls were too

bwgophers wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

Guess Who wrote:

Soccerdad02 wrote:Searls beat Defeeters 3-0 in PT. Should be ahead in the poles.

Give us your reason why feet should drop and sting take that spot. Just based on one game or over-all record. Too bad Sting didnt enter the DT Tournament then we all could of seen what that have now.

It seems that this one core aspect of FBR is so hard to communicate to everyone:

02Dad wrote:head-to-head results are unfortunately not considered.

The sooner everyone comes to grips with what it means to not have head-to-head factored into the software, the better. There are reasons that head-to-head is not in there.

I believe FBR's method, although confusing, is logical and better than just strict head-to-head. Lets say Polaris beats Higg, but then loses 6 games to all the other Big 7 teams. Should they be ranked ahead of Higg, especially if Higg beats or ties the rest of the Big 7? Of course not.

I don't know the rest of the Feet vs Searls evaluation but I would bet there is good reason that Feet are several slots above Searls at this point. And, if they are close enough to each other in the rankings, that means they will probably play a competitive game next time they meet. Do you (soccerdad02) feel Searls blew out a hapless Feet team?

I don't want to sound like I'm defending FBR. FBR is limited in many ways. But it helps to truly understand what it can and can't do, as it is. As soon as people do understand, they will realize that arguing who is number one is pretty much worthless because the tool is just not that accurate.

A little perspective from someone who spent way too much time doing this stuff for the ‘01’s…

NO ranking system is “perfect”. Not FBR, not Power Rankings, not human polls. They all have strengths, weaknesses, and different points of emphasis. Even when you combine all of these into a “BCS” style ranking, it still won’t be perfect.

Personally, I think the “accuracy” of FBR, and any of the other systems for that matter, is somewhere between deepthoughts’ “rusty machete” and his “laser scalpel”. The FBR ranking tiers are the “rusty machete”. However, there is still some further accuracy within the tiers as well.

We had tons of game data from the ‘01’s, and my guess is that game data from the ‘02’s would bear this out as well. What you will see is that IN GENERAL:

1) Games between teams within 5 ranking spots of one another will tend to be very competitive games (2 goal margin or less), and the lower ranked team coming out with a Win is not uncommon.

2) Games between teams ranked 5-10 spots from one another will tend to be competitive (again 2 goal margin or less in most cases), however, the higher ranked team will come out with a Win in a large majority of these games (>70%).

3) It will be very rare that a team ranked >10 spots below another will so much as manage a draw against the higher ranked opponent, and most games will have the higher ranked team winning by a margin >2 goals.

The biggest value of these rankings in my mind is for coaches to find leagues/tournaments that have an appropriate level of competition for their team. Also, for LDs and TDs to set up leagues/tourneys with an appropriate competitive balance. Most logical people don’t see any benefit in a team getting smoked by 4-5 goals every game, or a team smoking everyone else by 4-5 goals/game.

By the way, we did an evaluation of how each of the ’01 ranking systems (FBR, Power Rankings, Human Polls, and consolidated BCS) did at predicting the results of Lake Highlands QT. The results were a total wash. Each system got 8 out 11 1st weekend D1 qualifiers correct. Each system got 17 or 18 out of the 20 D1 teams correct. Each system got 27 or 28 of the 30 D1 + D3 qualifiers correct. So each of the systems were basically 90% accurate.

The bottom line is that just like deepthoughts said... if you are arguing or getting upset that a team is ranked a couple of spots too high or a couple of spots too low, or that Team A is ranked above or below Team B… You are wasting your time and energy.

So the phrase in RED above is of most interest.

My question is how high ranked was the highest ranked team that DID NOT make it into LHGCL and how low ranked was the underdog that did over-achieve and qualify for LHGCL?

Many, if not most, parents are clearly scrambling to land their kid on a team that they feel good will make it into LHGCL, and if possible, top 20, since top 20 all play "D1" in the first year based on current rules. I wonder if the line of qualifying confidence is top 18, or top 25, or is it top 15, at least in the experience you saw with the 01 generation.

Secondly, how much movement was there in 01 FBR ranking from 6 months before qualifying until the ranking right before QT? Can the 02's expect a very different picture on FBR six months from now?

I hope my two questions were clear enough.

Right now is a critical time, as waiting until May/June moving to a new team just one month before QT is very tricky. I think most people will make moves this winter, so that they still how things are working out before signing the contracts.

BW Gophers just posted all the answers to your questions in the 01 forum. It shows a glance back at last year's 01 trends.

deepthoughts wrote:

bwgophers wrote:


A little perspective from someone who spent way too much time doing this stuff for the ‘01’s…

NO ranking system is “perfect”. Not FBR, not Power Rankings, not human polls. They all have strengths, weaknesses, and different points of emphasis. Even when you combine all of these into a “BCS” style ranking, it still won’t be perfect.

Personally, I think the “accuracy” of FBR, and any of the other systems for that matter, is somewhere between deepthoughts’ “rusty machete” and his “laser scalpel”. The FBR ranking tiers are the “rusty machete”. However, there is still some further accuracy within the tiers as well.

We had tons of game data from the ‘01’s, and my guess is that game data from the ‘02’s would bear this out as well. What you will see is that IN GENERAL:

1) Games between teams within 5 ranking spots of one another will tend to be very competitive games (2 goal margin or less), and the lower ranked team coming out with a Win is not uncommon.

2) Games between teams ranked 5-10 spots from one another will tend to be competitive (again 2 goal margin or less in most cases), however, the higher ranked team will come out with a Win in a large majority of these games (>70%).

3) It will be very rare that a team ranked >10 spots below another will so much as manage a draw against the higher ranked opponent, and most games will have the higher ranked team winning by a margin >2 goals.

The biggest value of these rankings in my mind is for coaches to find leagues/tournaments that have an appropriate level of competition for their team. Also, for LDs and TDs to set up leagues/tourneys with an appropriate competitive balance. Most logical people don’t see any benefit in a team getting smoked by 4-5 goals every game, or a team smoking everyone else by 4-5 goals/game.

By the way, we did an evaluation of how each of the ’01 ranking systems (FBR, Power Rankings, Human Polls, and consolidated BCS) did at predicting the results of Lake Highlands QT. The results were a total wash. Each system got 8 out 11 1st weekend D1 qualifiers correct. Each system got 17 or 18 out of the 20 D1 teams correct. Each system got 27 or 28 of the 30 D1 + D3 qualifiers correct. So each of the systems were basically 90% accurate.

The bottom line is that just like deepthoughts said... if you are arguing or getting upset that a team is ranked a couple of spots too high or a couple of spots too low, or that Team A is ranked above or below Team B… You are wasting your time and energy.

So the phrase in RED above is of most interest.

My question is how high ranked was the highest ranked team that DID NOT make it into LHGCL and how low ranked was the underdog that did over-achieve and qualify for LHGCL?

Many, if not most, parents are clearly scrambling to land their kid on a team that they feel good will make it into LHGCL, and if possible, top 20, since top 20 all play "D1" in the first year based on current rules. I wonder if the line of qualifying confidence is top 18, or top 25, or is it top 15, at least in the experience you saw with the 01 generation.

Secondly, how much movement was there in 01 FBR ranking from 6 months before qualifying until the ranking right before QT? Can the 02's expect a very different picture on FBR six months from now?

I hope my two questions were clear enough.

Right now is a critical time, as waiting until May/June moving to a new team just one month before QT is very tricky. I think most people will make moves this winter, so that they still how things are working out before signing the contracts.

I posted this over in the '01 forum this morning. This may help give you some perspective.



Had a little time to waste, and seeing the '02 parents getting all worked up over rankings got me curious to go back and take a look at how the '01's have progressed over time.

So... I thought it might be fun (and possibly insightful) to put together the following table that shows where the current Lake Highlands standings stack up against snapshots of the '01 BCS rankings at various key points going back to when I got involved in this whole mess back in October of 2010.

Some interesting points:

1) While the order has shuffled, the top 6 '01 teams are unchanged going all the way back to Oct. 2010. Plus, Solar Monte has been a constant at #7 or #8 over that entire period. Also kind of interesting that the big TFC/PW merger doesn't really seem to have changed that team's overall place in the '01 pecking order.

2) There are a total of 6 teams who were Top 30 in October 2010, that are not in Lake Highlands at U11. Four of those teams are no longer in existence (Solar Murin, Princess Warriors, Solar Webb, Sting Shepherd). Two of those teams are still together and are currently the top 2 teams in PPL (FC Dallas & Sting West O'Keefe).

3) Only 2 teams currently in Lake Highlands at U11 were either not together, or not on the radar screen in October 2010. Kicks East and Sting East (although I'm not sure how much of the Sting East core actually moved from Juve Black, so maybe they should be considered as a club change or team merger along the lines of FWFC/Mansfield Samba)

Anyway, just thought this might give you all something interesting to look at during the "slow period" between seasons. Enjoy!



To answer your question in some more specifics...

At the end of the U10 Fall season, Solar Murin (who was BCS #10 at that time) and Solar Webb (who was BCS #14 at that time), both folded. If I remember my history correctly, both teams had some numbers issues throughout the fall season and relied on guesting/roster sharing for most of the fall.

At the end of the U10 Spring Season, Princess Warriors, who were an independent that spent all of U10 in the 7-12 range, merged the majority of their roster with TFC '01.

Also, Sting Shepherd, who had worked their way up to around 15 or so by the end of U10 Spring Season, imploded right around June 1 when Shepherd suddenly quit as coach. Players from that team scattered and helped to round out the rosters of DT, DT North, DT North Red, Kicks White, Solar, and Sting East (and I may be missing a couple of teams, but the majority, if not all, of that roster found homes on other Lake Highlands teams, mostly D1).

The two teams that were "surprises" not to make Lake Highlands at U11 were FC Dallas (Pratt) and Sting West (O'Keefe). FC Dallas was #22 in the BCS as of July 1 (signing day), Sting West O'Keefe was #27. Those two teams currently stand at #1 & #2 in the PPL standings.

The other top 15 team from U10 Spring that took a big drop was Fusion Navy. They still made LH D3, but are near the bottom of the D3 standings after the fall. There was a group of 4-5 core players from Fusion that left and went to Tx. Spirit North at the end of the Spring season.

The 2 teams that kind of came out of nowhere to qualify for Lake Highlands were Sting East and Kicks East. Sting East was formed shortly after Audrey Gutierrez was named DOC for the Sting East division in April or May of 2011. I've heard that a large part of that team actually came from Juventus Black, which was a top 30 team for most of U10, (but then didn't even enter LH QT) but I don't if that is true or not. In any case, that team starting showing well in Spring tournaments immediately when they came on the scene. Kicks East really came out of nowhere. They didn't play in ANY of the primary NTX academy leagues in U10 (SDL, PT, EAL, TXYSL, CAL, PAL, etc...).

The other team that made a strong move up during the Spring of U10 was Andromeda Gold (Pantarotto). They were down in the low 30's-upper 40's for most of U10, primarily due to playing down in SDL D3. They were beating up on the weaker competition, but didn't move up the rankings until they started playing tougher competition and faring reasonably well in the Spring tournaments leading up to QT. By the time July came around, they were in the top 30 and were on everyone's radar screen with the general expectation that they would (and did) qualify for Lake Highlands.

I don't think what happened in the '01's as a whole is too drastically different what what has happened in previous years. Based on anecdotal information, it seems like you can pretty much expect that at least 2-3 current "Top 20" teams will no longer be on the scene come QT time, due to implosion or merging with another top team. There will probably be 4-5 teams total that drop significantly between now and QT, and 4-5 teams that rise significantly between now and QT. However, I would bet that >80% of the '02 U11 Lake Highlands D1 teams come from teams that are currently considered consensus "Top 25" and >80% of the D1 + D3 will come from teams currently considered consensus "Top 30".

Hope that answers your questions.

Great contribution bwgophers! Thank you!

The chart shows about 9 teams (or about 30%) made big moves up (4 or more places)(so our contest is valid and worthy (woohoo)), BUT, wow, only 2 teams ranked below #30 got into LHGCL and one of those was #31 in January -- hard to say that their promotion was significant because its not much of a jump for them and some teams imploded to help them too.

The other "flies in the statistical ointment" are the 2 NR/not rated in January teams, but those are really hard to estimate: a team forms, and they are pretty good without much time for the coach to work on it.

So, if 02 follows the pattern established by 01, the top ten will stay firm, + - 2 teams, and the top 30 that make LHGCL will stay firm + - 2 to 4 teams. Teams imploding is the only factor that is very hard to estimate.

I hate to say it, but the conclusion based on these numbers is that if you have a kid on a team ranked below 35, and you are driven to have her play in LHGCL (usually because LHGCL matters when you try to play for your high school), you probably should be looking around at teams that are a good fit for what your kid offers, or you are 90% likely to be playing in Plano Premier League D1 or Arlington next fall (not that there is anything wrong with that (my experience with PPL is that it is a pretty darn good league)).

Did I misread these 01 tea leaves in any way?

deepthoughts wrote:Great contribution bwgophers! Thank you!

The chart shows about 9 teams (or about 30%) made big moves up (4 or more places)(so our contest is valid and worthy (woohoo)), BUT, wow, only 2 teams ranked below #30 got into LHGCL and one of those was #31 in January -- hard to say that their promotion was significant because its not much of a jump for them and some teams imploded to help them too.

The other "flies in the statistical ointment" are the 2 NR/not rated in January teams, but those are really hard to estimate: a team forms, and they are pretty good without much time for the coach to work on it.

So, if 02 follows the pattern established by 01, the top ten will stay firm, + - 2 teams, and the top 30 that make LHGCL will stay firm + - 2 to 4 teams. Teams imploding is the only factor that is very hard to estimate.

I hate to say it, but the conclusion based on these numbers is that if you have a kid on a team ranked below 35, and you are driven to have her play in LHGCL (usually because LHGCL matters when you try to play for your high school), you probably should be looking around at teams that are a good fit for what your kid offers, or you are 90% likely to be playing in Plano Premier League D1 or Arlington next fall (not that there is anything wrong with that (my experience with PPL is that it is a pretty darn good league)).

Did I misread these 01 tea leaves in any way?

I think you've read it pretty well. There's always going to be a few surprises up or down that no one can predict, but the bulk of the qualifiers are going to come from known entities that already have strong cores of at least 11-12 girls, loyal parents, and stable coaching going into this Spring.

There was one additional interesting thing that happened with the '01's that may or may not happen with the '02's. Between May and July, there were 5-6 teams in the upper 20's - low 40's in the rankings that folded as well. In May, most of these teams would have figured strongly in the mix for the final few D3 spots in LH. By July - POOF! What was left was a bit of a dropoff in the quality of teams after about 32 or 33. So it actually became a bit easier to predict which teams would qualify for LH. No idea why this group of teams folded. If players defected to round out the rosters of "better" teams, left competitive soccer, had low numbers to begin with and weren't going to get to 14??? It was a bit strange and not sure if the '02's will see something similar.

Regarding your statement about playing in LHGCL as a pre-requisite for playing High School... When I first stumbled my way into NTX academy and onto this forum a couple of years ago, I asked an open question along those lines. The general consensus was that the prerequisite for playing High School soccer was playing in any of the select leagues (Lake Highlands, Plano, Arlington), not just playing Lake Highlands. Maybe to play for one of the large 5A schools the bar was a little bit higher, but generally, playing select was usually enough.