Updated FBR - 11/25/11

deepthoughts wrote:Well, I really was talking about what might be feasible to measure and rank teams versus each other, better than the results-is-all-that-matters FBR.

Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic, probably deserving of its own topic thread. I'm not sure how + / - goals scored and goals allowed, while your kid is on field, helps your kid improve.

My first thought would be completed passes / kept possession versus unforced errors and turnovers.

I have seen wingers that gain a good reputation because they drive the ball forward 30 yards on the dribble when they touch it. But if the same kid then holds the ball too long, the end of the run becomes a consistant turnover or unforced error. These stats, when presented in a positive way to the child, would help them concentrate on improving their individual play. In this example, drive the ball forward but don't turn in over at the end of the positive run.

The + / - idea mentioned above is kind of a bridge between individual play (which a kid can control) and team play (which has many many other factors involved, many out of the control of the child). It comes down to why you are keeping the stat in the first place. If its to improve your kid's play, I would vote for kept possession + / lost possession -, not goals for and against. The quality of the team you are on will have too big an impact on the + / - goals stat.

I look forward to additional input and perhaps someone starting a new thread on how parents can use measurements to help their DDs. I do think the main topic here was to help everyone understand the inherent flaws in FBR and why it should not be taken so seriously.

Not sure this would work for an individual player, but an interesting app: http://soccermeter.com/wp/

You guys are making my head hurt. Your dd loves her team, your dd loves her coach, she is having fun, she is playing a lot of minutes, she is having fun, she is progressing as a soccer player and as a 9 year old girl. Oh...and you like the other parents.

She is on the right team

I think y'all are all silly and all wrong. My daughters
team is the best, so there.

In the words of Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, da*ned lies and statistics"

Sent to the Stands wrote:In the words of Mark Twain: "There are three kinds iof lies: lies, da*ned lies and statistics"

There is no doubt that it is easy to bend statistics to suit the author who always has a motive and wants to prove his case. If one can figure out the motive, it always leads to finding some way the numbers were cooked (8.2 out of 10 times according to a recent survey in fact ).

However, the great hope would be that a parent is not cooking the books on his or her own DD as she runs around the field.

After thinking about this for a few more minutes...

deepthoughts wrote:I would vote for kept possession + / lost possession -

I think that it would have to be modified to accomodate good 'what the coach wants in this situation plays' as well.

For example, if you DD plays sweeper, counting the number of +'s for kept possession (by passing successfully) vs -'s for lost possession is a great start, but you would have to add successful tackles, successful clearances, and opponent shots of goal to get a clearer picture of her play. Most coaches are very happy with a clearance out of bounds sideline from their sweeper when in danger, so that should not count as a turnover. Likewise, if your DD is a winger, centering the ball into the opponents box should not count as a turnover unless she boots it at the keeper from 40 yards out and no other offensive teammate in the area. So I would propose keep a Possession Plus/Minus plus Smart Play counter, or PSP rating.

I do love this post, btw...

twomattiesmom wrote:You guys are making my head hurt. Your dd loves her team, your dd loves her coach, she is having fun, she is playing a lot of minutes, she is having fun, she is progressing as a soccer player and as a 9 year old girl. Oh...and you like the other parents. She is on the right team

It is a wonderful thing to know you have made the right decisions and be at peace.

Peaceful bliss aside, I do think that keeping a stat or two is not bad either if it helps your DD and you as a parent. If you were to keep the PSP rating, some parents might chill out on the post-game-coaching-syndrome that all of us have witnessed on the way to the parking lot. A DD might have a rating of +15 (kept possession) -3 (lost possession) and 9 smart plays, but without the stat, dear old dad is harping about the -3 plays and forgets the +15 and 8 of the 9 smart plays. Human nature seems to demand "You had a great game but I want to point out this and this..." That leads to kids that are tight tight tight, stressed about their parents' evaluation of their play, right after their coach told them good job. By keeping PSP, perhaps dear old dad gets a clue and takes DD to Bahama Bucks instead of discussing that one ugly turnover. The kid stops clenching her teeth, starts smiling on the field, has fun, and starts playing far better.

Many parents will always want to "actively" help. Some yell like maniacs during the game - not helpful. Others instruct like puppet-masters from the sideline - not helpful. Others pre-coach and post-coach until they are blue in the face - the kid sees their lips moving but eventually hears nothing - not helpful. The least helpful are those that coach a different message than the coach is teaching on the opposite side of the field (ridiculous) and the one's that tell their kids that they have to blow off their teammates and do it on their own (just shoot when you get the ball no matter what!). The PSP stat might serve as a pacifier for the parent while actually giving the kid healthy targets to shoot for.

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:Well, I really was talking about what might be feasible to measure and rank teams versus each other, better than the results-is-all-that-matters FBR.

Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic...

Not sure this would work for an individual player, but an interesting app: http://soccermeter.com/wp/

Interesting app screenshot - http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/soccermeter/id412772516?mt=8 - my first thought/question is what do they do with time the ball is out of bounds? From what I have seen in U10 ball, the few balls that fly 50 yards out of bounds could really mess up the possession stats. In a pro game, the ball kids give the player another ball in a few seconds for the throw in. But in U10 In Plano, the wind can sometimes carry a ball half way to Oklahoma.

deepthoughts wrote:...Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic, probably deserving of its own topic thread. I'm not sure how + / - goals scored and goals allowed, while your kid is on field, helps your kid improve...

Don't get me wrong, my DD is clearly the best soccer player in the whole wide world and maybe the galaxy. BUT there have been times when I've wondered to myself if my DD is as good as I think.

Is it possible my assessment of my DD on the field might be scewed? Probably not. If I wanted to check myself though, or if I wanted to keep myself busy on the sideline doing something other than GPS coaching, it would be possible to keep a +/- record pretty easily.

I agree with twomattiesmom's statement that if your DD is having fun, that's all that really matters. If your DD seems to be struggling though, the +/- would be an easy way to start down the path of identifying a potential issue. ("Is my DD's skills lagging?" "Is she being asked to do too much for this team?")

deepthoughts wrote:

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:Well, I really was talking about what might be feasible to measure and rank teams versus each other, better than the results-is-all-that-matters FBR.

Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic...

Not sure this would work for an individual player, but an interesting app: http://soccermeter.com/wp/

Interesting app screenshot - http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/soccermeter/id412772516?mt=8 - my first thought/question is what do they do with time the ball is out of bounds? From what I have seen in U10 ball, the few balls that fly 50 yards out of bounds could really mess up the possession stats. In a pro game, the ball kids give the player another ball in a few seconds for the throw in. But in U10 In Plano, the wind can sometimes carry a ball half way to Oklahoma.

Agree about the wind and extended stoppages. There appears to be a "Start/Stop" function. I'm wondering if that would allow one to stop the clock when the ball goes way out or there's an injury or ....

I've been threatened with bodily injury if I purchase any more soccer stat apps, even at $1.99, by Mrs. Itsme. So someone else will have to take the plunge.

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:Well, I really was talking about what might be feasible to measure and rank teams versus each other, better than the results-is-all-that-matters FBR.

Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic...

Not sure this would work for an individual player, but an interesting app: http://soccermeter.com/wp/

Interesting app screenshot - http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/soccermeter/id412772516?mt=8 - my first thought/question is what do they do with time the ball is out of bounds? From what I have seen in U10 ball, the few balls that fly 50 yards out of bounds could really mess up the possession stats. In a pro game, the ball kids give the player another ball in a few seconds for the throw in. But in U10 In Plano, the wind can sometimes carry a ball half way to Oklahoma.

Agree about the wind and extended stoppages. There appears to be a "Start/Stop" function. I'm wondering if that would allow one to stop the clock when the ball goes way out or there's an injury or ....

I've been threatened with bodily injury if I purchase any more soccer stat apps, even at $1.99, by Mrs. Itsme. So someone else will have to take the plunge.

While the ball is out of bounds, that time should probably count towards the new team's possession. The referee, unless a team intentionally launches the ball a mile out of bounds to kill the game, will not usually stop his watch for restarts. If you stopped your clock every time the ball went out of bounds you'd probably only record 39 minutes of a 45 minute half.

bigtex75081 wrote:

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

Itsme wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:Well, I really was talking about what might be feasible to measure and rank teams versus each other, better than the results-is-all-that-matters FBR.

Individual stats that a parent could feasibly keep under the "what gets measured gets improved" category is another topic...

Not sure this would work for an individual player, but an interesting app: http://soccermeter.com/wp/

Interesting app screenshot - http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/soccermeter/id412772516?mt=8 - my first thought/question is what do they do with time the ball is out of bounds? From what I have seen in U10 ball, the few balls that fly 50 yards out of bounds could really mess up the possession stats. In a pro game, the ball kids give the player another ball in a few seconds for the throw in. But in U10 In Plano, the wind can sometimes carry a ball half way to Oklahoma.

Agree about the wind and extended stoppages. There appears to be a "Start/Stop" function. I'm wondering if that would allow one to stop the clock when the ball goes way out or there's an injury or ....

I've been threatened with bodily injury if I purchase any more soccer stat apps, even at $1.99, by Mrs. Itsme. So someone else will have to take the plunge.

While the ball is out of bounds, that time should probably count towards the new team's possession. The referee, unless a team intentionally launches the ball a mile out of bounds to kill the game, will not usually stop his watch for restarts. If you stopped your clock every time the ball went out of bounds you'd probably only record 39 minutes of a 45 minute half.

I don't think anyone was advocating stopping the clock on every out of bounds. Rather on the ones when the ball gets wind help going way way out of bounds. With injuries, substitutions, etc., I would think there are valid reasons to stop tracking possession time such that the "tracked time" would be less than the "game time" unless the ref adds enough extra time to cover all of the play stoppages. I've never seen this happen as some stoppages of play are part of the game.

Let's start some Humans rankings and get a Bcs rankings!

02Dad wrote:

bigtex75081 wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Off sides wrote:Something fishy going on with these rankings.

Fishy?

What are you talking about?

I don't have a dog in this fight but I agree something is fishy here. Just looking only at the numbers and not knowing any history or situations... How is a 2-13-1 ranked 18th or an 0-6-1 team ranked 22nd. They are both ahead of a 10-1-2 team that's listed at 26th. Also ahead of a 9-2-2 team (and I realize some wins are still due to them based on a post I just read) at 35.

If you're using a spreadsheet to calculate this stuff out for you, you may want to check the formulas.

It's not a spreadsheet -- and there is nothing wrong with my calcualtions.

I'll tell you how a team (Let's call them TEAM A) 2-13-1 is ranked higher than a team (lets call them TEAM B) that is 10-1-2.

TEAM A played 16 games against top 10 teams, winning 2 games, pulling a draw for one game, and losing the other 13.

TEAM B plays 13 games against teams ranked 35-50. The win 10 of them, lose 1 and pulling a draw twice.

Sure, team B has more wins but against MUCH softer competition. Or are you suggesting that Sting Parker should be ranked higher than Dallas Texans South? After all, Sting Parker has a better record seeing that DT South has lost a whoping 8 games while Sting Parker has only lost 2 games.

Thanks for the hypothetical explanation, how about sharing your FBR file.

It isnt called Fishy Biased Rankings for nothing.

Sent to the Stands wrote:

02Dad wrote:

bigtex75081 wrote:

02Dad wrote:

Off sides wrote:Something fishy going on with these rankings.

Fishy?

What are you talking about?

I don't have a dog in this fight but I agree something is fishy here. Just looking only at the numbers and not knowing any history or situations... How is a 2-13-1 ranked 18th or an 0-6-1 team ranked 22nd. They are both ahead of a 10-1-2 team that's listed at 26th. Also ahead of a 9-2-2 team (and I realize some wins are still due to them based on a post I just read) at 35.

If you're using a spreadsheet to calculate this stuff out for you, you may want to check the formulas.

It's not a spreadsheet -- and there is nothing wrong with my calcualtions.

I'll tell you how a team (Let's call them TEAM A) 2-13-1 is ranked higher than a team (lets call them TEAM B) that is 10-1-2.

TEAM A played 16 games against top 10 teams, winning 2 games, pulling a draw for one game, and losing the other 13.

TEAM B plays 13 games against teams ranked 35-50. The win 10 of them, lose 1 and pulling a draw twice.

Sure, team B has more wins but against MUCH softer competition. Or are you suggesting that Sting Parker should be ranked higher than Dallas Texans South? After all, Sting Parker has a better record seeing that DT South has lost a whoping 8 games while Sting Parker has only lost 2 games.

Thanks for the hypothetical explanation, how about sharing your FBR file.

I sent it to you about two weeks ago when you asked for it the first time.

I didn't get it.

Regarding Sting Parker.

Yes, you are behind XLR8 but only by a fraction of a point.

The thing that is really dragging this team down in the rankings is the Strength of Schedule. Coming in ay 47th out of 52 teams.

02Dad - Thanks for resending the FBR file. I appreciate your willingness to share the data.

clearly there is some confusion / questions about how these rankings are coming out. i think the algorithms used in fbr are sound and 02dad is doing an honest job. the strength of schedule is a big ambiguity that is throwing people. as an example, my dds team is one of just a few in the top 20 with a LOSING record. other than the fact that i buy 02dad a starbucks every morning, her team stays in the top 10 b/c my dds team only plays top 10 teams. by contrast, hypotheticall a 30th ranked team, that beat all teams 31-40 this fall wont get much higher than 29 if thats all they play.

i posted the league standings for primetime (tgpl) and EAL on www.ntxsoccer.net. since there are 50 teams ranked, there are obviously many other leagues and divisions that i have not posted. if you would post or pm me league names or web links to schedules i will post those standing too. then poeple could get a better idea of who is playing who and how they are doing.

to use the example of sting parker, clearly, they had a great season at 9-2 and come in at 35. then i see the divas at 22nd with a record of 0-6. that must seem out of line to many folks. let me know where they play and i will post standings. that way you can get a better logical perspective seeing who the 9 teams were that sting beat and the 6 teams that the dvias lost to, for example. it may help make some sense.

also, i forgot to mention, the whole guesting thing, just cant be compensated for in the analysis so we'll just have to live with that for a few more months.

The rankings are sound and the system and formulas are the same as used last year for 01s. When it came down to it, the top 20 FBR wound up with 18 of the 20 in D1 Lake Highlands so the system is not flawed. AS the Fever guy above posted strength of schedule is huge, beating everyone below does nothing for you and losing to higher ranked opponents does not really hurt your ranking. And the guesting thing can't be calcualted for but those teams that rely heavily on guests will be exposed come July. Thanks 02Dad for taking the time to do this, it's fun and it keeps a good record of who is moving up or down.

No one still hasnt explained to me how FCD Premier with a 12-2-1 record is ranked below DT South with a 17-8-1 record. The strength of schedule should be about the same as they both play in the same league and FCD has beaten DT South 2 out of 3 last times in the last month. Is the reason because DT South has just played more games and thus won more games? Does it matter that South has lost 4x as many games as FCD. The same argument can be had with Bennett who has a better record and has beaten South the last 2 times they played and the SOS should also be about the same since they played the same league. What gives? Can 02 Dad give me any incite on why this is out of wack?

RoidRage wrote:No one still hasnt explained to me how FCD Premier with a 12-2-1 record is ranked below DT South with a 17-8-1 record. The strength of schedule should be about the same as they both play in the same league and FCD has beaten DT South 2 out of 3 last times in the last month. Is the reason because DT South has just played more games and thus won more games? Does it matter that South has lost 4x as many games as FCD. The same argument can be had with Bennett who has a better record and has beaten South the last 2 times they played and the SOS should also be about the same since they played the same league. What gives? Can 02 Dad give me any incite on why this is out of wack?

Lets just put the order like this

South
Webb
Higg
FCD
Even thought south has been beating by all three teams multiple times for some odd reason the computer ranks them top dog now.

bobmac15 wrote:clearly there is some confusion / questions about how these rankings are coming out. i think the algorithms used in fbr are sound and 02dad is doing an honest job. the strength of schedule is a big ambiguity that is throwing people. as an example, my dds team is one of just a few in the top 20 with a LOSING record. other than the fact that i buy 02dad a starbucks every morning, her team stays in the top 10 b/c my dds team only plays top 10 teams. by contrast, hypotheticall a 30th ranked team, that beat all teams 31-40 this fall wont get much higher than 29 if thats all they play.

i posted the league standings for primetime (tgpl) and EAL on www.ntxsoccer.net. since there are 50 teams ranked, there are obviously many other leagues and divisions that i have not posted. if you would post or pm me league names or web links to schedules i will post those standing too. then poeple could get a better idea of who is playing who and how they are doing.

to use the example of sting parker, clearly, they had a great season at 9-2 and come in at 35. then i see the divas at 22nd with a record of 0-6. that must seem out of line to many folks. let me know where they play and i will post standings. that way you can get a better logical perspective seeing who the 9 teams were that sting beat and the 6 teams that the dvias lost to, for example. it may help make some sense.

Divas played EAL

RoidRage wrote:No one still hasnt explained to me how FCD Premier with a 12-2-1 record is ranked below DT South with a 17-8-1 record. The strength of schedule should be about the same as they both play in the same league and FCD has beaten DT South 2 out of 3 last times in the last month. Is the reason because DT South has just played more games and thus won more games? Does it matter that South has lost 4x as many games as FCD. The same argument can be had with Bennett who has a better record and has beaten South the last 2 times they played and the SOS should also be about the same since they played the same league. What gives? Can 02 Dad give me any incite on why this is out of wack?

I guess because they beat Higg?

twomattiesmom wrote:

RoidRage wrote:No one still hasnt explained to me how FCD Premier with a 12-2-1 record is ranked below DT South with a 17-8-1 record. The strength of schedule should be about the same as they both play in the same league and FCD has beaten DT South 2 out of 3 last times in the last month. Is the reason because DT South has just played more games and thus won more games? Does it matter that South has lost 4x as many games as FCD. The same argument can be had with Bennett who has a better record and has beaten South the last 2 times they played and the SOS should also be about the same since they played the same league. What gives? Can 02 Dad give me any incite on why this is out of wack?

I guess because they beat Higg?

DT South didnt beat higg it was a tie, and by my understanding a tie recives no points.

Guess Who wrote:

twomattiesmom wrote:

RoidRage wrote:No one still hasnt explained to me how FCD Premier with a 12-2-1 record is ranked below DT South with a 17-8-1 record. The strength of schedule should be about the same as they both play in the same league and FCD has beaten DT South 2 out of 3 last times in the last month. Is the reason because DT South has just played more games and thus won more games? Does it matter that South has lost 4x as many games as FCD. The same argument can be had with Bennett who has a better record and has beaten South the last 2 times they played and the SOS should also be about the same since they played the same league. What gives? Can 02 Dad give me any incite on why this is out of wack?

I guess because they beat Higg?

DT South didnt beat higg it was a tie, and by my understanding a tie recives no points.

Sorry, my bad.